Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Haena, HI

Discussion
Issued at 819 AM HST Thu Mar 5 2026

Dry and stable moderate ESE winds continue into early next week.
Blocking of the flow by the larger islands will facilitate afternoon sea breeze development over the western end of the state that will favor clouds and isolated showers each afternoon. Developing land breezes then bring clearing overnight.

Attention then turns to Monday night through the remainder of next week which may be particularly active. By late this week, the tail end of a cold front lifting into the Gulf of Alaska is modeled to settle immediately west of the islands as broad ESE low-level flow persists. Low pressure nestled within the left exit of digging Pacific jet will absorb this remnant frontal band and usher it east into the forecast area as early as Monday night, most likely in the vicinity of Kauai. Impressive dynamics aloft will develop the front vertically allowing heavy showers to increase in coverage and intensity along it. At the same time, deep southerly flow transports PWATs of at least 1.75" into the forecast area deepening the warm cloud layer, providing additional moisture for heavy rain, and enveloping the forecast area in a broad corridor of weak isentropic ascent that will likely produce at least a few pockets of heavy rain well in advance of the front. Aggregate low pressure remains established NW of the state for the entirety of next week with multiple embedded shortwaves providing periods of stronger forcing as the frontal band slowly advances east. On this much, global model consensus is very strong. Clarity on timing for each island and magnitude of rainfall, including potential rain rates, will come during the next few days as the event draws nearer and especially once it enters the hi-res window. Worth noting that instability appears marginal-at-best at this time which should at least mute thunderstorm potential. Regardless, a potentially long-lived flash flood threat is poised to manifest over the islands next week and possibly into early the following week.

AVIATION
Issued at 819 AM HST Thu Mar 5 2026 Surface winds will trend a little more south of due east today as they weaken slightly. VFR is expected to be the rule today, with showers occasionally bringing brief MVFR, mainly windward and mauka. There are currently no Airmets out and none are expected today.



MARINE
Issued at 819 AM HST Thu Mar 5 2026

High pressure situated far to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will produce fresh to strong east-southeasterly trade winds today. Winds ease slightly tonight into Friday as a front passes north of the islands, and winds may even shift southerly just west of Kauai for a time before fresh to strong east- southeast winds return Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
remains in effect through Friday evening for most of the waters around the Big Island and Maui. This general wind pattern is likely to hold through the weekend.

A large low pressure system approaching from the west this weekend will stall northwest of the islands beginning early next week. Winds will veer more southerly in response to the low's cold front making a close approach, or even entering the northwest offshore waters, by mid-week. Locally strong southerly winds will be possible depending on how close the cold front gets to the islands.

Surf along north- and west-facing shores will remain small as a series of small long- to medium-period northwest swells reach the Hawaiian Islands over the next week or so. The forerunners of the next small northwest swell are anticipated to arrive this afternoon/evening and peak Friday night, followed by another small northwest swell that maintains the small surf through the weekend. A compact storm-force low currently just off the coast of Japan will likely produce another small west-northwest swell early next week.

Choppy east shore surf will remain near seasonal averages as east-southeasterly trade winds vary minimally over the next few days, with a chance for a slight increase over the weekend. Surf along east-facing shores will then decline early next week as winds veer southerly.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small through the weekend, but may increase and become choppier with the shift to a more southerly wind direction early next week. A small long-period south swell is also possible around Tuesday of next week.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.