Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Redford, TX

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Water vapor imagery shows abundant mid and upper level moisture spreading over southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas in advance of a shortwave trough progressing into New Mexico early this afternoon. Ascent ahead of the shortwave trough has interacted with the available mid-level moisture and elevated instability to aid in the development of a few high-based showers over the region this morning with occasional lightning strikes noted over portions of southeast New Mexico. Only a few sprinkles or very light rain has made it to the ground as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain dry, with surface dewpoints in the 30s and 40s in place across all but the eastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains. The shortwave trough axis will move across our forecast area late this afternoon into this evening, with ascent ahead of this feature becoming more focused east of the Pecos River. We expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid to late this afternoon over far southeast New Mexico into portions of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Other very isolated high based cells may even develop over our western and southwestern zones as the shortwave trough moves over the region. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will continue to develop into the Permian Basin/western Low Rolling Plains and into the Trans Pecos region during the early to mid evening hours.
We will generally maintain 20-30 percent coverage over these locations, with the best chance around 30 percent focused over the northeastern Basin and western Low Rolling Plains where CAMs have indicated a better signal for development with the passing shortwave. Forecast soundings show a well-mixed boundary layer this afternoon and evening, with cloud bases extending quite high above 12000 ft AGL. These inverted-V profiles and high downdraft CAPE values in excess of 1000-1500 J/KG will support damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph with convection that develops this afternoon into this evening. Storm development may become more intense over the eastern Basin/western Low Rolling Plains and possibly into the Lower Trans Pecos where low level moisture quality will be better (surface dewpoints in the 50s). SPC has expanded the Slight (2 of 5) risk of severe weather to encompass locations roughly along and northeast of a Lamesa-Big Spring/Coahoma line late this afternoon into this evening, while a Marginal (1 of 5)risk extends over the rest of the Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos.
Shear and instability may be sufficient for a couple of storms to produce hail to the size of quarters over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

The shortwave trough moves to our east tonight. A much drier west-southwest flow aloft prevails on Saturday. A dryline will extend from the eastern/southeastern Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos on Saturday afternoon. An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out over our far eastern zones Saturday afternoon and evening, but for now overall storm chances are too low to mention in the forecast (10% or less). Heat will otherwise continue to build into Saturday with highs on Saturday afternoon topping out in the 90s to near 100 degrees over much of the forecast area. A few locations along the Rio Grande may reach in the 101-108 degrees range Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

A southwesterly flow aloft returns Sunday into Monday ahead of a deepening upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Surface low pressure will develop over the vicinity of southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas Sunday afternoon, with a dryline extending southward from this feature across the eastern Texas panhandle into the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region.
Hot, breezy, and dry conditions will prevail over much of our CWA to the west of the dryline on Sunday, with the breeziest conditions anticipated over southeast New Mexico into the Guadalupe Mountains.
High temperatures will once again reach well into the 90s outside of higher terrain areas, with a few locations in the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos potentially hitting 100 degrees. A few locations along the Rio Grande could reach between 101-109 degrees. An isolated storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out again over our far eastern zones on Sunday, but storm chances once again remain less than 10 percent. Monday looks to be a carbon copy of Sunday, with hot/dry/very breezy conditions developing again over much of the CWA Highs reach into the mid 90s to around 102 degrees over many locations (and up to 103-109 along the Rio Grande). A pattern change occurs by Tuesday as a cold front may push toward the northern Permian Basin and potentially northern portions of southeast New Mexico. Some model guidance stalls the boundary just to the north of our CWA Tuesday afternoon with a dryline trailing southward over far eastern portions of our region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible over our far eastern zones Tuesday afternoon and evening.
NBM guidance has highs a bit cooler in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most of the area on Tuesday.

A more unsettled weather pattern may take shape by the middle to latter part of next week as deep layer moisture increases in association with a developing mid-level trough over the region.
Surface moisture also increases with dewpoints returning into the 50s and perhaps 60s for some by late in the week. The surface boundary also looks to remain oriented over our region. These features along with increased moisture/ascent will bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast by mid to late next week along with cooler temperatures.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Light rain showers and virga has been ongoing throughout the morning across the region. Expect VCSH across all sites throughout the early afternoon hours before TS develops later in the afternoon. Highest confidence in TS occurring will be at FST and HOB sites, while TS PROB30s are in place elsewhere due to lower confidence. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds are expected during the afternoon with occasional gusts up to 30 kts across most terminals especially with any passing brief showers and TS.
A low-level jet develops across portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico early this evening shifting breezy winds southerly to southeasterly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 68 100 70 99 / 30 0 0 0 Carlsbad 63 99 64 96 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 69 95 72 100 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 66 101 66 100 / 20 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 86 62 85 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 60 99 61 96 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 55 92 55 91 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 67 99 69 98 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 67 99 69 97 / 20 0 0 0 Wink 64 100 64 99 / 20 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.