Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Redford, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Today is on track to be a near carbon copy to Tuesday. Temperatures start warm this morning as westerly winds continue. Most can expected middle 60s to lower 70s to start the day. As the ridge continues to weaken and a strengthening trough moves into the northern Great Plains, we see continued hot, dry, and windy conditions. Westerly winds quickly increase through the morning hours with the strongest winds expected across the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in effect. Surroundings areas of the Upper Trans Pecos can also expect strong winds and a Wind Advisory is in effect for these locations. In a similar vane, blowing dust may reduce visibility to between 1 and 3 miles with localized areas of lower visibility due to these strong winds, so a Blowing Dust Advisory is also in effect across many of these same locations. Breezy west winds will be felt elsewhere, but to a lesser degree. These downsloping winds combine with the low-level thermal ridge over our area to push afternoon temperatures well into the 90s and low 100s across a bulk of the region. The hottest temperatures will once again be found near the Rio Grande where a Heat Advisory is in effect for Big Bend into Terrell County.

Thankfully, the scorching temperatures and windy conditions come to an end tonight. As the aforementioned trough continues to slowly move into the Upper Midwest and a secondary trough digs west of Baja California, a weak Pacific cold front slides across the region. This will begin to be felt across northwestern portions of the area by sunrise on Wednesday with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler than this morning. The warm morning temperatures hold on for now for the remaining areas further to the southeast. By the afternoon, much weaker winds and cooler temperatures are expected for all. Afternoon high temperatures will remain a touch above normal, but are going to be at least 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today. Overall, a welcomed reprieve from the heat.

-Chehak

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

The brief cooldown does not last long as more well above normal temperatures return on Friday lasting through the rest of the long- term period. Subtle upper-level ridging takes over by Friday morning, keeping warm, dry westerly to southwesterly flow across the region. High temperatures are anticipated to range in the mid/upper 80s to 90s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 70s Friday through Sunday. Some locations along the Rio Grande and Presidio valleys look to see the triple digits once again over the course of these days. Long-term guidance has upper-level moisture associated with a shortwave trough near Baja California, supplying some high clouds beginning Friday afternoon lasting through much of the weekend. This will prevent temperatures from soaring into the upper 90s to low 100s over many areas.

By Sunday, drier air aloft moves overhead as the aforementioned shortwave trough lifts further to the north. As a result, decreasing cloud cover along with slightly warmer temperatures are forecasted Sunday afternoon into early next week. Another upper-level trough will begin to swing through the Great Basin Sunday night. Forecast guidance has been trending a more southward track with this disturbance, however, it is expected to go north of the region.
Cluster analysis shows highly variable solutions with this disturbance, leading to high uncertainty with the positioning and magnitude. All of the solutions depict the disturbance moving north of the region, however, how north it will go is the question. This is all to say that the northward track is going to limit precipitation chances significantly over the region early next week. Ensemble and long-term deterministic guidance does have the dryline retreating back to west Texas by Monday and Tuesday evenings. A few storms may develop during this timeframe, though rain chances remain very low (< 15%) and confined to the far eastern Permian Basin.

Lamberson

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Strong southwesterly winds have kicked up blowing dust at CNM, leading to MVFR and occasional IFR conditions this afternoon.
Winds look to remain breezy to strong at most terminals until a bit after sunset. A cold front is expected to sweep in Thursday morning, bringing calmer winds out of the northwest.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A Rangeland Fire Danger statement has been issued for portions of southeastern New Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and for areas south to the Davis Mountains this afternoon into the early evening. This will be a rinse and repeat from yesterday as the combination of very warm temperatures, critical MinRH values, and strong winds will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions. ERCs remain relatively low across the region limiting fire weather concerns, but they will begin to worsen later on this week. Fuel moisture is still near normal, thanks to the rainfall this past week. This will negate the need for a Red Flag Warning today, along with more areas of blowing dust expected limiting solar insolation. By tomorrow, drying fuels are expected over much of the region. Widespread below critical relative humidity continues through the end of the week into the weekend as well, but relatively light winds are going to limit fire weather concerns.

Lamberson

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 67 93 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 66 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 69 93 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 63 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 64 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 61 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 69 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 69 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 67 92 62 94 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Eastern Culberson- Gaines-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Lower Brewster County-Terrell.

NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County- Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.