Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 7:25 PM Moonrise 2:35 PM   Moonset 3:08 AM

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PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 652 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Overnight - W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 15 seconds. Fri - W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 17 seconds. Fri night - SW to W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 19 seconds. Sat - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 18 seconds. Sat night - SW to W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 17 seconds. Sun - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Sun night - SW to W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Mon - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Mon night - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 17 seconds. Tue - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Tue night - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 15 seconds.

FXUS64 KMAF 182341 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 641 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A cold front is ahead of schedule and currently moving through the Permian Basin putting an abrupt halt to daytime heating. There is a marked difference in temperatures where ahead of the front readings are in the 90s while behind the front they range from the 80s all the way down to the upper 60s. Gusty north to northeast winds will continue overnight dropping temperatures down into the 40s and 50s.
Moisture that was in place ahead of the front has not been pushed out of the area, but lifted aloft over the colder airmass behind the front. This will become evident later tonight when 850mb winds veer around from the south and provide enough lift to create extensive low clouds. The low clouds will prevent much diurnal variation in temperatures Friday suggesting MAV guidance is too optimistic. By contrast the MET is showing much cooler temperatures, which may occur, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in how cool the airmass is so stayed close to the NBM guidance which is about an even split between the GFS and NAM. Mid-level flow begins backing from a more southwesterly direction during the day on Friday further enhancing lift enough that scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop in the Big Bend Friday afternoon and spread north overnight encompassing the entire CWA by sunrise Saturday morning. The rainfall during this time period will be light and accumulations will generally be below a tenth of an inch until rainfall increases in the long term.

Hennig

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

By 12z Saturday morning, the cold front will have surged to at least the higher terrain in our far southern/western zones. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough approaches from the west on Saturday with plenty of available moisture in place behind the cold front. The clear indication of this is rainfall chances, however there remains a large discrepancy in the global models/ensembles and the higher resolution (convective allowing) models that we are just edging into the range of as it regards to expected rainfall coverage/location.
The global models are much more bullish with rainfall coverage and amounts for the Permian Basin but the more trusted high resolution models for this scenario are much more skeptical with coverage.
Initially, isentropic ascent Friday into Saturday could instill a more stratiform regime with light rainfall over a larger area, however, as the upper trough approaches, more elevated instability develops and storm mode could transition to feature more elevated instability. The thinking is that the best chances for rain Saturday afternoon will come for the east-central Permian Basin although there still remains uncertainty in coverage/rain amounts. Either way, the progressive nature of the shortwave brings in drier air and subsidence throughout the day on Sunday. High temperatures on Saturday will be largely dictated by the clouds and precipitation, with many spots in the Permian Basin seeing little to no warming with highs only topping out in the 50s and low 60s with 70s/80s along/south of highway 90. Some moderation comes on Sunday but cool conditions linger until Monday when less cloud cover allows warming back into the 70s and 80s.

For the early to middle part of next week, upper level flow stays relatively light with weak ridging in place. Lee troughing at the surface brings the return of southerly flow as early as Monday, keeping dewpoints of 40-50+ degrees in place. This could bring about some diurnally-driven convection across the Big Bend on Monday with perhaps some more disturbed weather arriving with the next trough Wednesday/Thursday. Temperatures return above normal by Tuesday.

-Munyan

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Modest northeast winds will continue through the TAF period. VFR conditions drop to MVFR near 12Z as a stratocu deck forms behind a cold front that has moved through. VFR conditions are expected to return around 18Z.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 49 65 51 55 / 0 10 70 90 Carlsbad 52 71 54 62 / 0 0 30 50 Dryden 64 78 62 72 / 10 30 60 50 Fort Stockton 57 73 59 68 / 0 30 50 50 Guadalupe Pass 52 68 54 63 / 0 0 20 20 Hobbs 47 66 49 54 / 0 0 50 70 Marfa 48 79 51 75 / 0 20 40 20 Midland Intl Airport 51 65 53 56 / 0 10 70 70 Odessa 53 66 54 58 / 0 10 60 70 Wink 54 69 55 62 / 0 10 50 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.

La Paz
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Thu -- 01:03 AM MST     0.36 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 03:08 AM MST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:56 AM MST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:19 AM MST     0.67 meters High Tide
Thu -- 12:56 PM MST     -0.05 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 02:34 PM MST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:44 PM MST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:41 PM MST     0.74 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico (2), Tide feet

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