Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stock Island, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Florida Keys weather was a bit more active early this morning compared to yesterday. Clusters of showers were able to form over the Outer Gulf waters with shallower cumulus streaming over the Middle and Lower Keys. Outside of showers, weather conditions remain muggy. Dew points across the island chain are solidly in the upper 70s with average temperatures in the lower 80s. Zooming out a bit, GOES East satellite imagery highlights broad upper level ridging across the Gulf. Meanwhile, a surface high just moved from the northeastern US to the Atlantic. The resulting pattern suggests another day of sustained southeasterly breezes and near normal rain chances for the year.

Looking ahead, the ridge over the Gulf is primed to move further west while a very pronounced mid latitude trough develops over the north central Plains. The high over the Atlantic is on track to move further east and weaken. The result would be a much weaker pressure gradient, and breezes, across the Florida Keys. The challenge then becomes forecasting shower coverage. Deeper layers of Caribbean moisture are primed to move west into the Gulf instead of over the Florida Keys. While that suggests shower coverage will decrease, that does not mean dry weather will develop across the island chain. Satellite observations and model runs do not indicate a Saharan Air Layer near the Keys or any source of sinking air aloft. Large scale features that would provide a source of lift across the Keys would be very broad, meaning mesoscale features would dominate weather. In that light, expecting near normal chances for showers through the end of the week. Just remember to stay hydrated, mind the heat, and stay safe!



MARINE
Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes will persist across the Florida Keys waters through the first half of the week. Shower chances will remain near normal to slightly above normal while southeasterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere continue to direct low level moisture across South Florida. Later in the week, a surface high is primed to move from the New Jersey coastline into the Atlantic, which will allow breezes to slacken. The overall flow of moisture is expected to shift west at the same time, which would let shower chances decrease.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. MVFR CIGs are possible near short lived showers. Near surface winds will start to shift easterly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 90 80 90 81 / 20 30 40 30 Marathon 87 80 87 81 / 20 30 40 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.