Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stock Island, FL

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Showers are possible through this evening at any time but confidence on development and location will leave mention out of the TAFs for the time being. Near surface winds will be east to southeasterly at near 10 knots.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A broad surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretching westward across Florida and the southeastern United States is producing gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys early this morning. Aloft, sharp ridging stretches north northeastward out of Central America into the southeastern United States. This has resulted in considerable drying through much of the troposphere. Last evenings sounding indicated a tiny amount of CAPE with precipitable water of 1.49 inches, a little above the 25th percentile. A few clusters of showers have been able to develop early this morning, with one cluster harassing the Upper Keys. Temperatures are near normal with dew points rebounding into the mid 70s.

Over the next few days the surface ridge will stretch out into the Atlantic as a mid latitude trough pushes off the northeast Atlantic Coast. Usually winds will trend downwards, but they may be bolstered slightly by weak troughing moving westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. While mid through upper level ridging will flatten out some and migrate westward, considerable dry air and good mid level heights will remain, keeping rain chances slight. Temperatures will range near normal with dew points remaining in the mid 70s.

The weather is expected to transition to a wetter pattern heading into mid week. The upper level ridge will be shoved westward into Mexico as troughing develops over the central and eastern Gulf of America. Meanwhile, a stronger lower level trough will advance westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Consequently, the upper levels will moisten with falling heights, while the lower levels moisten and turn slightly cyclonic. This will likely result in sharply increasing shower and thunder chances in the mid week time frame. Uncertainty remains quite high as the upper levels are complicated and its interaction with the lower level trough will be important to the overall effects on our region. For the time being, will maintain the upward trend in PoPs, becoming likely by Thursday. The more veered flow will likely push dew points up into the mid to upper 70s with temperatures edging upwards to slightly above normal.

MARINE
Issued at 1133 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a broad high centered just off the southeast Atlantic Coast will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys for the next couple of days. While the ridge will stretch out into the Atlantic early this week, it will also be reinforced by a new high moving off the Atlantic Coast, holding gentle to moderate easterlies.
Uncertainty picks up heading into mid week. All guidance points to a robust trough migrating westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Winds are expected to shift southeasterly and should stay gentle to moderate, but could vary quite a bit depending on the exact behavior of the trough. Overall, moisture will increase, along with greater confluence, resulting in increasing shower and thunderstorm activity.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.