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GMZ035 Expires:202312041600;;877247 Fzus52 Kkey 040916 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 416 am est Mon dec 4 2023
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz032-035-041600- bayside and gulf side from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge- gulf of mexico from west end of seven mile bridge to halfmoon shoal out to 5 fathoms- 416 am est Mon dec 4 2023
Today..Variable winds near 5 knots, becoming west to northwest and increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. Patchy fog early this morning. Isolated showers.
Tonight..Northwest to north winds near 10 knots, becoming north to northeast and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..North to northeast winds near 15 knots, becoming northwest to north and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of the marquesas keys. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..Northwest to north winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..Northwest to north winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas building to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, except building to 4 to 6 feet west of the marquesas keys. NEarshore waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. West of the marquesas keys seas 4 to 6 feet, subsiding to to 3 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of the marquesas keys. NEarshore waters choppy.
Friday and Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of the marquesas keys. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 416 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis..A weak frontal system will move through the florida keys later today resulting in gentle to moderate northwest to north breezes veering to the north to northeast night and continuing into Tuesday. A second, much stronger cold front will push through the coastal waters late Tuesday or early Wednesday, with fresh northerly breezes expected in its wake. Strong high pressure will slide across the southeastern united states into the western north atlantic late week and result in moderate to fresh easterly breezes.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of december 02...
58 nm south of dry tortugas light...on loggerhead key. 28 nm south of cosgrove shoal light...off the marquesas keys. 21 nm south of sand key light...off key west. 20 nm south of looe key...off big pine key. 15 nm south of sombrero key light...off marathon. 9 nm southeast of alligator reef light...off islamorada. 5 nm southeast of molasses reef light...off key largo. 4 nm east of carysfort reef light...off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KKEY 041026 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 526 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 525 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

It has been an interesting morning for the Florida Keys. Weak drainage flow off the Mainland in the late evening and overnight hours, coupled with a moisture laden boundary layer and light winds led to the development of patchy fog. Much of the fog has stayed out across the Bayside and Gulfside waters but has on occasion moved over portions of the island chain. This fog has ebbed and flowed reducing visibility below 1 SM at times at the Key West Airport and between 2.5 and 5 SM at other reporting sites. Temperatures remain in the lower to mid 70s with dew points uncomfortably in the same range.

FORECAST
The thought process behind the forecast package has not altered appreciably. A weak front is currently making slow and steady progress across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula.
Said front will arrive by this afternoon, shifting winds from light and variable to the northwest and north. Though this front will be weak, it will bring some relief in the form of lower dew points and slightly cooler temperatures. Winds will also freshen behind this front.

However, the bigger story will be a stronger secondary front arriving Wednesday. This front will bring a more appreciable air mass change to the region. Dew points could potentially fall below 50 degrees with day time highs only in the lower 70s. In addition, we will see a prolonged period of breezy conditions in the wake of this frontal passage. Despite two frontal passages in quick succession this week, moisture and organized lift will remain limited. Therefore, rain chances will remain 20 percent or less through the period.

There is a third front lurking in the shadows, however, it is out at the day 6/7 time period. This front could be even stronger than even the second front. It also has the potential to bring windy conditions to the Keys along with a better shot at precipitation.
While it is too soon to get excited, conditions at this time could line up such the Keys could see some thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Models show decent instability, good omega, and wind speeds of around 25 knots at 700 mb that some organization is possible. In addition, the Keys would be located under an area of weak divergence aloft, which could further lend aid in organization. Model soundings show a unidirectional wind profile which would could mean an isolated strong wind threat with said storms. As it stands, the GFS has an earlier arrival time and a stronger signature versus the ECMWF. Only time will tell if this new day 7 front maintains its potency going forward, however, the signature is such that is worthy mentioning even this far out.

MARINE
Issued at 525 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Patchy fog developed overnight and continues to linger across the coastal waters north of the island chain. Expect fog to dissipate over the coming hours. From synopsis, a weak frontal system will move through the Florida Keys later today resulting in gentle to moderate northwest to north breezes veering to the north to northeast night and continuing into Tuesday. A second, much stronger cold front will push through the coastal waters late Tuesday or early Wednesday, with fresh northerly breezes expected in its wake. Strong high pressure will slide across the Southeastern United States into the western North Atlantic late week and result in moderate to fresh easterly breezes.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

While VFR conditions will prevail for a majority of the TAF period, brief reductions in VIS and CIGS are possible due to patchy fog across the Florida Keys. Have kept mention of HZ and a VIS of 6SM at both terminals through the morning, but the fog will likely clear up after sunrise. Surface winds will be light and variable through early morning hours, then will become northwest to north by this afternoon.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1876, both the daily record cold high temperature of 57F and the daily record low temperature of 46F were recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 82 73 79 68 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 84 73 80 66 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Howe Key
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Mon -- 12:01 AM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 AM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:35 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:53 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:12 PM EST     0.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Howe Key, south end, Harbor Channel, Florida, Tide feet

No Name Key (northeast of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:32 AM EST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:42 AM EST     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:35 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:16 PM EST     0.43 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:46 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:24 PM EST     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:39 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

No Name Key (northeast of), Florida Current, knots

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Key West, FL,