Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Pine Key, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Dewpoints along the island chain are ranging from 72-74 degrees this afternoon. This is a few degrees lower than they have been as of recent days and provides at least some evidence that the moisture front is trying to push south of the Keys. This is evident by sub 1" PWATs on MIMIC-TPW imagery across much of the central and eastern Gulf as well as the Florida Peninsula on MIMIC-TPW imagery, while PWATs are closer to 2" in a column extending across the Bahamas and through the Florida Straits. The 12Z KKEY RAOB did measure PWATs of 2.2" but also sampled the proliferation of dry mid-level air above 500mb that is occurring as a result of 594dam ridging centered along the Texas coast and northwestern Gulf. Highest rain chances will be focused across the Straits of Florida through tonight. By tomorrow, the ridge will begin to shift eastward towards the Atlantic. This will promote southeasterly low/mid-level flow which will allow moisture to surge back to the north across the Keys, supporting chances for passing showers and storms through the end of the week. Meanwhile, nearby tidal stations continue to report high tide peaks near or right at Coastal Flood Statement criteria.
Projections are slightly decreasing for the next few tidal cycles, but for now the Coastal Flood Statement will remain in effect along the Keys through tonight for minor saltwater ponding of low-lying areas during high tide.

The next system of interest is still forecast to develop on Friday as an upper-level trough dives southeastward from Canada and merges with a cutoff low near the Upper Midwest. A strong cold front will surge south and push through the Gulf coast region Friday night into Saturday. Recent model consensus diverges on the southern extent of the front over the weekend as the mid to upper-level trough pulls away towards the North Atlantic. This also depends on where and how fast the subtropical ridge becomes reestablished in the Atlantic in the wake of the departing trough. Regardless of whether the cold front stalls across Central Florida or has enough forcing to make it through the Florida Keys, we expect windy conditions to begin developing across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters as early as Saturday night in addition to a multi-day period of active weather featuring medium to high rain chances. In the coming days as forecast confidence improves, we will have further details to provide regarding potential marine weather impacts.

MARINE
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Surrounding marine observations are currently reporting gentle to moderate northeast breezes. From synopsis, high pressure is centered over the Southeast U.S. and the northern Gulf. An Atlantic ridge continues to weaken and retreat east towards the central Atlantic. In between these two features lies a weak cold front which has generally stalled along and parallel or just south of the Florida Keys. This will promote gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes over the next several days. There will be chances for showers and a few thunderstorms over the next few days as this weak and diffuse front remains in the area. Late in the week, a strong cold front could develop and move towards the Florida Keys by the weekend. Currently, there are low chances that the front will make it to the Florida Keys waters. We will continue monitoring this system.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Convection has shifted south of the TAF sites this afternoon and VFR conditions are generally expected to continue. There will be low chances for showers or a storm near the terminals early tomorrow morning, and VCSH was added by 12Z. A weak front near or just south of the Keys is promoting northeasterly sfc winds around 8-10 kts with occasional gusts of 15-18 kts. Gusts should diminish this evening, but winds will remain around 8-10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 79 87 80 88 / 30 30 30 40 Marathon 79 88 80 89 / 20 30 30 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.