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GMZ043 Expires:202312010345;;674659 Fzus52 Kkey 302132 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 432 pm est Thu nov 30 2023
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz042>044-010345- hawk channel from ocean reef to craig key out to the reef- hawk channel from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out to the reef- hawk channel from west end of seven mile bridge to halfmoon shoal out to the reef- 432 pm est Thu nov 30 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Friday night..East winds near 15 knots, becoming east to southeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas subsiding to around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds near 10 knots, becoming east to southeast and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Monday..Northwest to north winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 1 foot, except building to around 2 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Monday night and Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north to northeast. Seas 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 432 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis..High pressure initially just off the southeastern united states coast will slide east across the western north atlantic over the next several days. Fresh northeast to east breezes tonight will shift to the east by Friday. Breezes will continue to veer to the east to southeast Friday night through Saturday night, then to the southeast to south on Sunday as the high moves farther east into the atlantic. Breezes will become variable for Sunday night, before freshening Monday and Monday night as a frontal system approaches.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of november 30...
58 nm south of dry tortugas light...on loggerhead key. 15 nm south of cosgrove shoal light...off the marquesas keys. 10 nm south of sand key light...off key west. 6 nm south of looe key...off big pine key. 8 nm south of sombrero key light...off marathon. 6 nm southeast of alligator reef light...off islamorada.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KKEY 302006 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 306 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Radar has certainly quieted down from this morning with just a few light sprinkles detected across the Straits of Florida waters southwest of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Otherwise, a potent shortwave is moving across the Red River Valley, which is pushing a mean layer ridge just off the Eastern Seaboard slowly eastward. This has allowed winds that were northeast to morning to become more easterly this afternoon. Wind speeds along the reef tract remain generally between 15 to 20 knots with slightly slower speeds across the Florida Bay and adjacent Bayside waters off the Middle Keys. Temperatures have exceeded the original forecast by a few degrees, owning to the fact that we saw more sunshine today.

FORECAST

The forecast remains on track through this weekend. The aforementioned shortwave trough is currently developing a surface feature that will move northeast. As the surface feature matures, a cold front will extend southward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later this evening. As the parent low shunts off quickly to the northeast it will orphan the front, which in turn will stagger its forward momentum. At the same time, the mean layer ridging over the western Atlantic will shift further east, allowing for southerly flow to try and move in. This will help to bring in more moisture into the BL and looks to be enough to at least warrant slight chance PoPs (10 percent) for the overnight.

Eventually, a broad area of high pressure will move out of the Central Plains starting Sunday and will assist in pushing the frontal boundary further east and south. By the time it reaches the Florida Keys by late Sunday or early Monday, it will be in a much weakened state. As it limps through, winds will clock around from southerly to northwesterlies very briefly. In addition, winds will freshen slightly in the wake of the frontal passage.

The boundary will then settle over or near the Straits of Florida and linger through midweek. Given the lack of any upper level forcing and the jet well to our north will limit rain chances.
For now will maintain slight chance PoPs 10-20 percent. Models continue to be in agreement that a secondary stronger front will potentially blast through the region with fresh to strong northerly winds. Timing on when this would occur remains still questionable. GFS is faster with an arrival on Wednesday around midday-ish, while the ECMWF lags by 12 to 18 hours. Given that we are still 6-7 days out, the timing is bound to change several more times. Stay tuned.

MARINE
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Moderate to fresh easterly breezes continue this afternoon across all waters except the Florida Bay. As such, a Small Craft Exercise Caution remains in effect for these waters. From synopsis, High pressure initially just off the Southeastern United States coast will continue to slide east across the western North Atlantic over the next several days. Fresh northeast to east breezes tonight will shift to the east by Friday. Breezes will continue to veer to the east to southeast Friday night through Saturday night, then to the southeast to south on Sunday as the high moves farther east into the Atlantic. Breezes will become variable for Sunday night and Monday before freshening Monday night and Tuesday as a frontal system approaches.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z Friday afternoon. With that being said, a surge of slightly increased low-level moisture combined with weakly confluent flow may result in a few light showers late in the late overnight period.
Confidence in coverage and expected limited impacts to VFR visibilities permits keeping mention out of the TAFs at this time.
Near-surface winds will be generally out of the east at 8 to 11 knots, with occasional gusts near 18 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 74 84 76 85 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 74 83 76 84 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Conch Key
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Thu -- 04:56 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:09 AM EST     1.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:49 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:06 PM EST     1.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conch Key, eastern end, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key Viaduct
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Thu -- 12:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:18 AM EST     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:47 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:32 AM EST     1.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:09 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:08 PM EST     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:19 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:26 PM EST     0.59 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key Viaduct, Florida Current, knots

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Key West, FL,