Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Layton, FL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 1058 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 KBYX continues to detect scattered showers across the CWA with a majority of the showers currently south of the island chain. On land, some communities in the Upper Keys have seen a few hundredths of an inch in accumulated rainfall. GOES-19 Satelitte Imagery depicts partly cloudy skies making for a nice day.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the mid to upper 80s.
Along the Reef, winds are east to southeast at near 10 knots.
While the 12z KKEY sounding did measure 1.59 inches of PWAT, the upper levels do contain drier air which could contribute to these showers dying off and not producing much rain. For the rest of the afternoon going into tonight, things will remain similar as scattered shower activity waxes and wanes across the area.
Moderate breezes will gradually freshen throughout the afternoon into tonight. No updates were needed for the current forecast package.

FORECAST
Issued at 449 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 It has been another warm and relatively quiet overnight shift here in Key West. Our KBYX radar has been detecting isolated showers to both the north and east of the island chain. A few showers have crossed over the island chain toward the Gulf, but we don't have any automated observations that have reported precipitation. We can still look to our radar-estimated rainfall, but it is only reporting a few hundredths of an inch of accumulation. In general, it looks like the rainfall that has already occurred wasn't particularly impactful, and any coming showers over the next couple of hours should follow that trend.
GOES-19 Cloud Top RGB imagery seems to show a hint of low level clouds scattered across our skies, but this product is better for mid to upper level clouds. Looking at automated observations again both at the Key West and Marathon International Airports, sky observations have been going back and forth between few and scattered cloud cover near 3000 feet above ground level. With the increased moisture aloft, and the activity in the area, it seems that the sunrise this morning is on track to be a little cloudier than yesterday.

In the short term, similar weather conditions each day look likely as we wrap up this week. CIMSS vorticity analysis shows a small area of cyclonic vorticity in the mid levels, specifically around 700mb to 500mb. This area is currently just to our south, but will track to the north and west today and tomorrow. This is likely the feature that has caused guidance to ramp up PoP chances for the short term, so we have cautiously followed the trend with 30 percent PoPs today and 40 percent tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be on and off, as opposed to a widespread shield of rain that washes us out.

Toward the end of the weekend, and into next week, is where the forecast looks a little fuzzy. High pressure is still going to be the dominating feature, and will evolve to encompass virtually all of the eastern U.S. The part that is messing with the forecast a little bit is that this "heat dome" will be centered well to our north, so we will sit under the periphery. Moisture undulations will be able to travel along the outer edge of the high, and the timing of these undulations will determine when our rainfall chances increase. Guidance isn't in great agreement with respect to the timing or magnitude of these pockets of enhanced moisture, so for now we will advertise PoPs around 40 to 50 percent throughout next week with slight chances for thunderstorms. The takeaway is that our high and dry conditions are heading north for the forecast period, but they will come back eventually.

MARINE
Issued at 1058 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the eastern seaboard will gradually build over the next few days. This will result in gentle to moderate breezes today slowly freshening in response to the tightening pressure gradient. By Monday and Monday night, breezes will be fresh to occasionally strong, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may be needed at that time. Thereafter, breezes will gradually slacken. Multiple pushes of enhanced moisture will lead to fluctuations in shower activity over the coming days, but thunderstorm coverage looks like it will remain isolated.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.