Sunday, July25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Islandia, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:59PM Sunday July 25, 2021 11:48 AM EDT (15:48 UTC) Moonrise 8:38PMMoonset 6:59AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ117 Bahamas Including Cay Sal Bank- 438 Am Edt Sun Jul 25 2021
Today..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
Tonight..E to se winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Islandia, FL
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location: 25, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 251345 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 945 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

UPDATE. An area of low pressure continues to drift westward towards the Northern and Central Florida coastline this morning. This continues to bring in plenty of deep layer tropical moisture to the region. The KMFL 12Z sounding shows PWAT values of 1.94 inches, and this is forecasted to increase to over 2 inches later today and into the evening hours. This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop once again this afternoon and evening as the sea breezes develop and move inland. With a weak steering flow remaining in place, the showers and thunderstorms will be slow moving throughout the rest of the day. This will continue to create the potential for localized flooding across the low lying and poor drainage areas due to the possibilityof repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. Because of this, a Flood Watch remains in effect for all of the east coast metro areas as well as Collier County. High temperatures today will generally range from the upper 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 729 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) . VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds will increase out of the south southeast later this morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop later this morning and they will persist into the afternoon and evening hours. Periods of MVFR or IFR are possible around showers and thunderstorms. At KAPF, winds will shift to the west southwest this afternoon as the Gulf breeze develops.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 354 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021)

DISCUSSION .

Short term (Today - Monday):

Latest satellite and sfc analyses data show a low pressure system about 180 miles to the east of of Daytona Fl, slowly drifting WSW. An associated decaying sfc boundary is draped across central Florida, and gradually sliding south. Meanwhile, the Atlantic ridge is starting to slowly regain its strength and is slowly building back its western edge, with its axis now just to the SE of the low/front complex over the Atlantic coastal waters. This will allow for winds over SoFlo to begin shifting back to a more SE flow, with speeds around 10 kt by this afternoon.

With SoFlo remaining in the warm sector of the frontal system, plenty of moisture remains available for another round of numerous showers and thunderstorms today. 00Z MFl sounding data showed a rather saturated vertical column with PWATs just over 2 inches. Model PWATs shoot up to around 2.5 inches for this afternoon as the aforementioned SE flow brings additional moisture advection. Thus, expect another round of showers with periods of heavy downpours and potential for localized flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all east coast metro areas and Collier county.

Latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center give about a 50 percent chance of the low achieving tropical cyclone status in the next 48 hours. But regardless of the final outcome, expect heavy rain to linger around South Florida at least through early in the week. This will lead to localized flooding concerns across the area, particularly in poor drainage areas and locations that have see high rainfall totals in the previous days. Other thunderstorm hazards include damaging gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

For Monday, the forecast scenario still has plenty of uncertainty as solutions try to handle the possible evolution of the aforementioned low. Latest runs insist in bringing the center of the low across northern Florida, assuming it doesn't slows down its SW motion. Consensus, however, seems reliable enough to expect a rather weak low pressure system with mainly abundant moisture and plenty of rain associated with it.

Temperatures remain on the warm side, despite of all the shower activity and increased cloud cover. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Long term (Monday night - Friday):

Models depict broad high pressure expanding over much of the eastern half of the CONUS, and pushing the trough further west of Florida. Trailing moisture will still linger over the state, with the wet and stormy pattern continuing through the middle of the work week. 60-80 POPs remain in place each afternoon. For the later part of the long term, the low/trough system finally moves away enough from the area to allow the Atlantic ridge to re-establish across SoFlo.

POPs begin decreasing on Thursday, and becoming mainly scattered by Friday. Thus, a more typical summer pattern will return for the end of the work week and into next weekend with the diurnal cycle and sea breeze circulations becoming the drivers for convection.

MARINE .

An area of low pressure located just north of the Atlantic coastal waters will keep abundant moisture across the area, and relatively weak SE winds today and on Monday. There is the possibility that a northerly swell could move towards the South Florida Atlantic waters early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur across the local waters through the middle of the work week. Periods of rough seas and gusty winds will accompany any thunderstorm that forms.

HYDROLOGY .

With plenty of moisture advection occurring over the region, precipitable water values are forecast to rise between 2.2 and 2.4 inches today and possibly on Monday. This is near record values for this time of year, allowing for heavy rainfall associated with numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region. At this time, a general 1 to 3 inches of rain are forecast across the Gulf coast, with 3 to 5 inches along the east coast. Locally higher amounts are possible where multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms develop. The grounds across South Florida remain pretty saturated from the rainfall earlier in the week. This could enhance the flooding potential across the region through the upcoming weekend especially in the low lying and poor drainage areas.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS) . VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF period with variable to southeasterly winds. A few scattered showers persist along the east coast tonight, with better coverage expected mid to late morning through the afternoon Sunday with MVFR ceilings and heavy to torrential rainfall at times. Brief IFR to LIFR conditions may be possible during the heavier showers or storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Miami 78 89 79 91 / 40 60 20 60 West Kendall 77 89 77 92 / 50 60 30 60 Opa-Locka 78 89 78 92 / 40 60 20 70 Homestead 77 89 77 90 / 50 50 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 78 89 79 90 / 40 60 20 60 N Ft Lauderdale 78 89 79 90 / 40 60 20 60 Pembroke Pines 78 89 77 90 / 40 60 20 70 West Palm Beach 77 89 77 91 / 40 60 20 60 Boca Raton 78 89 79 91 / 40 60 20 60 Naples 77 90 77 90 / 50 60 50 80

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Flood Watch through Monday evening for FLZ068>070-072-074-168- 172-173.

AM . None. GM . None.

Update/Aviation . CWC Today through Monday and Marine . AR Monday Night through Saturday . AR

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL156 mi53 minS 710.00 miA Few Clouds86°F75°F69%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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E6SE3S3S5CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW5CalmCalmCalmSW3S7
1 day agoE5E9W12
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2 days agoE3E7E8E9E8E10E10E7E4E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Nassau
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:36 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:43 AM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:42 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:05 PM EDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.60.90.50.40.81.42.12.83.33.43.12.51.710.50.50.81.42.233.63.83.7

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas (2)
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Nassau
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:27 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:30 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:28 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:53 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.60.90.60.611.62.433.43.432.41.610.60.611.72.53.23.73.93.6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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