Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Islandia, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:04PM Saturday July 4, 2020 8:14 PM EDT (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 6:53PMMoonset 4:43AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ117 Bahamas Including Cay Sal Bank- 436 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
Sun..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
Sun night..E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft atlc exposures, and 3 ft or less elsewhere.
Mon..E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft atlc exposures, and 3 ft or less elsewhere.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft atlc exposures, and 3 ft or less elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
Tue..E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft atlc exposures, and 3 ft or less elsewhere.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft atlc exposures, and 3 ft or less elsewhere.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft atlc exposures, and 3 ft or less elsewhere.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Islandia, FL
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location: 25, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 042333 AAC AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 733 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

. 00z Aviation Update .

Aviation. VFR conditions expected overnight tonight and into Sunday. Generally light winds expected through the period. However, slightly higher winds expected in convection, which looks to have a bit better coverage than the previous days. There may be brief reductions in CIG/VIS in convection. Highlighted this and convective potential with PROB groups for the eastern terminals.

Prev Discussion. /issued 400 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020/

Mesoscale Update. Cumulus fields are becoming increasingly agitated along a northward-advancing outflow boundary connecting Gulf sea-breeze boundary near Broward/Miami-Dade/Collier/Mainland Monroe County mutual intersection region eastward toward the Atlantic sea-breeze circulation extending southward through east-central Broward County. 0-3-km lapse rates exceeding 7.5-8 C/km north of this boundary highlight the deep boundary layer and accompanying low convective inhibition that should facilitate additional convective development in the outflow-boundary corridor -- especially where mesoscale convergence is maximized near the Atlantic/Gulf sea- breeze boundaries. Seasonably moderate midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 C/km combined with the steep low-level lapse rates over interior sections will foster strong outflow production, with westerly convective-layer steering -- e.g., 500-mb westerlies around 20 kt -- supporting a net northeastward spread of this convection toward the Atlantic coast of Palm Beach and Broward Counties through 7PM.

In a somewhat separate regime, initial convection forming on the cooler side of the Atlantic sea-breeze -- north of the outflow- boundary intersection point -- is developing in a notably higher SBCAPE environment -- on the order of 4000 J/kg associated with boundary-layer sheltering of moisture owing to middle/upper 70s dewpoints. However, this activity should continue to become quickly displaced east of the steeper low-level lapse rates, de- training from the sea-breeze solenoidal circulation owing to notably boundary-orthogonal 850-mb flow and the shallow/weak circulation -- causing its weakening in the short-term as it gets displaced into cooler air.

However, with time, maturing convection across the interior/Everglades region will develop northeastward toward the higher-buoyancy environment closer to the Atlantic coast. In addition to the narrow, meridionally-oriented ribbon of strong buoyancy along the coast, causative planetary- boundary- layer sheltering is also supporting directional shear, with the inland advance of the marine layer accompanied by 5-10-kt surface easterlies beneath 20-kt midlevel westerlies -- also favoring an overlapping zone of 25 kt of effective shear, and 50-100 m2/s2 of effective SRH.

Should the maturing convection maintain any appreciable residence time in this environment -- possible given the oblique orientation of anticipated storm motions, but quite conditional given orthogonal orientation of midlevel winds, compared to orientation of the ribbon of favorable thermodynamic-kinematic parameter space -- then a localized severe-thunderstorm could occur, with all modes of severe weather possible. This would be confined to north-of-outflow-boundary locations from metro/coastal northern Broward to Palm Beach County in the 4-7PM EDT time frame. The potential for convective backbuilding -- and localized flooding -- cannot be ruled out given the steep low-level lapse rate plume over interior sections potentially fostering upstream convective development, with precipitable water around 1.9-2.0 inches supporting efficient rainfall rates.

Ultimately, any severe-thunderstorm and heavy-rain risks are highly conditional, but are reasonable worst-case scenarios given the convective parameter space amid the mesoscale environment. Regardless, strong storms will likely impact central/eastern parts of Palm Beach and northern Broward County in the next few hours, extending toward the Lake Okeechobee region, as well.

Prev Discussion. /issued 249 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020/

Short Term.

Rest of Today through Sunday .

Moisture has returned across the area with the 12Z FL sounding having a precipitable water value of 1.7 inches with modest lapse rates over the peninsula around 6.5 C/km. Both seabreezes have begun to develop and be the focus for convective initiation this afternoon. After storms begin to develop outflow boundary and seabreeze interactions will provide additional lifting mechanisms for additional development. Scattered showers and storms will favor the interior and east coast late this afternoon and evening.

As we move into Sunday, not much changes in the overall pattern, except a little more moisture and a mid-level shortwave impulse that may allow a little more overall coverage with convection. Showers and storms will once again favor the interior and east coast metro on Sunday.

The primary concerns for strongest storms the remainder of the weekend will be localized heavy rainfall, given the light wind flow and slow storm motion, as well as frequent lightning strikes and gusty wet microburst wind potential and small hail.

Afternoon temperatures will continue to be above normal in the lower to mid 90s across the area. Heat indices will continue to soar into the triple digits up to 106.

Long Term.

Sunday Night through Tuesday .

Broad cyclonic flow will prevail from the northern Gulf of Mexico through the southern Mississippi Valley, with mid-level ridging gradually nosing into South Florida from the Bahamas. With the storm track displaced to our north, this will set up a relatively light flow regime, with weak south to southwest steering flow on Monday becoming more easterly on Tuesday. This suggests the greatest afternoon coverage of showers and storms should center from the Lake region towards the east coast on Monday, with more focus on inland areas possible on Tuesday. That said, given the weak flow regime, outflows could very well push convection towards the coastal areas once again on Tuesday afternoon. A few stronger storms are possible given a supportive thermodynamic environment with locally damaging wind gusts possible. Flooding of urban and/or poorly drained locations will also be possible given slow storm motions. Warm temperatures will continue with highs well into the 90s for inland areas and lows in the 70s to lower 80s.

Wednesday through Saturday .

The upper low is forecast to gradually lift into the South Atlantic States as deep ridging at least partially establishes from the Bahamas through the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Overall the wind fields will remain rather week through this period with a gradual easterly component developing maintained through the low levels. Deep moisture declines somewhat early in the period, but the latest model solutions suggest deep layer saturation becomes likely by late week. Therefore the usual diurnal shower/storm pattern is anticipated early in the week, favoring the greatest coverage over the interior and Gulf Coast, with the focus likely expanding to all areas towards the end of the week. Depending upon the synoptic pattern evolution a heavy rain threat could materialize by the weekend, but there is currently uncertainty. Temperatures should remain on the warm side through the extended period, favoring above average readings.

Marine.

Generally benign marine conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms, where locally higher winds and seas are possible.

Aviation (18Z TAFs).

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the interior and the east coast in the afternoon. VCTS for all terminals with MVFR/IFR vis/cigs possible in any storms that move over terminals. However, these will be handled with TEMPO groups and amendments. Convection diminishes after sunset. Light and variable winds once again overnight tonight.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 76 92 77 92 / 30 60 20 60 Fort Lauderdale 80 91 80 91 / 20 60 20 60 Miami 80 92 79 92 / 20 50 10 60 Naples 78 91 77 92 / 20 60 20 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Short Term/Marine . 33/Kelly Long Term . 34/SPM Mesoscale Update . 90/Cohen Aviation . 28/Frye


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL156 mi18 minSSE 310.00 miFair85°F75°F74%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S4SW4CalmCalmCalmW4S4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmS7CalmCalmCalmS5S10S5SW4S3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4E5E8S10
G16
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2 days agoNW7NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5E8SE6SE10SE6SE8SE4W6W3

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Nassau
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:59 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:00 AM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:55 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.60.40.61.11.82.42.93.12.92.41.710.60.40.61.222.83.53.83.83.42.6

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas (2)
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Nassau
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:50 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:48 AM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:41 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.70.50.81.322.63.13.232.41.710.60.50.91.52.333.63.93.83.32.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.