Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
"Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:18PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 10:35 AM EST (15:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:11AMMoonset 2:02PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1025 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
This afternoon..East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..Northeast to east winds near 5 knots becoming northwest to north and increasing to near 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Friday..North winds near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Friday night..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. West of cosgrove shoal light, seas 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 6 feet after midnight. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming rough. Isolated showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers.
Saturday night..Northeast to east winds near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL
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location: 25, -80.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 181458 AAB AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 958 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Update. No major changes to the forecast through this afternoon/evening. The radar is picking up on a few isolated showers across the Atlantic waters, however, this activity will likely be brief and confined over the offshore marine zones. Otherwise, modified MFL sounding shows a significant cap, which should limit convective development this afternoon.

Prev Discussion. /issued 628 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020/

.12z Aviation Update.

Aviation . Generally VFR with increasing easterly to southeasterly wind after sunrise. A Gulf sea breeze could develop this afternoon and push past APF. Sub-VFR cigs cannot be ruled out, mainly with areas of passing moisture. Fog is possible overnight at APF.

Prev Discussion . /issued 357 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020/

Short Term (Today through Wednesday) .

Deep-layered high pressure remains over the region with a surface high extending in from the Atlantic and the high aloft reaching in from the Caribbean. This pattern will suppress convection, allowing anything that were to form to remain mainly shallow isolated showers over the next few days. The easterly to southeasterly flow around the Atlantic surface high pressure will keep a warm airmass over the region which will lead to a warm next few days with most of South Florida reaching into the 80s and the potential for upper 80s to around 90 across some portions of inland Southwest Florida where the Gulf sea breeze may not reach.

As the next front begins to push closer, the ridge will elongate over the southern peninsula of Florida into the Gulf. This will allow for lighter wind flow over the peninsula tonight into Wednesday compared to today. Overall, the pattern will remain on the warm side of things but with most stations have their daily records in the upper 80s to around 90 along the east coast, Naples will have to be watched as the records there are mid to upper 80s and we will certainly be in that ballpark.

Long Term (Thursday through Monday) .

Thursday .

The maritime tropical air mass and associated mid/upper-level ridge that has been in place across South Florida will weaken and shift southward throughout the day on Thursday, causing the wind to veer from ESE to WSW across South Florida. As this veering occurs, a slight increase in low-level moisture will allow for the development of isolated to scattered showers across the northern portions of South Florida, including Palm Beach County and the adjacent Atlantic waters. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s across the eastern portions of South Florida while the inland areas and Gulf Coast of South Florida will experience mid to upper 80s.

Friday through Monday .

By Friday, a positively tilted 500mb trough will progress southeastward across the eastern CONUS, likely weakening by the time the mid/upper-level trough reaches the Atlantic Seaboard. The differential advection and forcing for ascent associated with this system will likely remain far to the north of the South Florida CWA as it progresses into the western Atlantic waters.

A cold front associated with the aforementioned system will likely approach South Florida from the northwest on Friday, allowing for a rapid tightening of the pressure gradient and surface winds veering to a northerly direction across South Florida. Ensembles and global model solutions suggest a lack of appreciable thermodynamic instability with frontal passage; however, a shallow band of moisture will likely advect across South Florida with the front allowing for the development of scattered showers across the eastern portions of South Florida on Friday into Saturday. In addition, an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out over the northern Atlantic waters of South Florida where instability may be maximized.

Global model and ensemble solutions also indicate the development of a surface low pressure off the South Carolina/Georgia coastline by Friday morning. This feature should quickly progress into the Atlantic waters but may allow for an additional tightening of the pressure gradient, leading to an increase in wind speeds mainly across the Atlantic waters of South Florida. Will have to monitor the development of this feature as it will likely influence the evolution of the aforementioned cold front and associated weather across the region.

A continental polar air mass behind the aforementioned cold front will shift southeastward before settling over the Tennessee Valley late Friday into early Saturday. South Florida will be located along the southern periphery of this surface high pressure as it weakens and shifts eastward throughout the weekend. This will allow for the pressure gradient to remain tightened across South Florida through Sunday, bringing breezy northeasterly winds. High temperatures will be in the 70s across South Florida this weekend before slightly increasing into the upper 70s to low 80s by Monday.

Marine .

Benign seas with a persistent easterly to southeasterly wind that could reach cautionary levels at times this week. The next front will approach the region later this week, with increasing winds and seas that could create hazardous marine conditions by the weekend. Mariners should continue to monitor the forecast through the week for the latest.

Beach Forecast .

A persistent easterly to southeasterly flow could allow for an elevated rip current risk to remain along the Atlantic beaches through Wednesday. A wind shift ahead of the next cold front later in the week may lead to a brief improvement in rip current risk, particularly along the Miami-Dade and Broward Atlantic beaches.

Climate .

____________RECORD HIGH MAX_________

NWS FORECAST Today HIGH RECORD YEAR AVE +-

NAPLES 85 86 IN 2018 77 8 WEST PALM BEACH 82 90 IN 1942 77 5 FORT LAUDERDALE 82 87 IN 1959 78 4 MIAMI 82 88 IN 1942 78 4

____________RECORD HIGH MAX_________

NWS FORECAST Wed HIGH RECORD YEAR AVE +-

NAPLES 84 87 IN 1997 78 6 WEST PALM BEACH 83 88 IN 2017 77 6 FORT LAUDERDALE 82 89 IN 1926 78 4 MIAMI 83 87 IN 2012 79 4

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 82 71 82 69 / 0 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 82 73 82 71 / 10 10 10 10 Miami 82 72 83 70 / 10 10 10 10 Naples 85 68 84 67 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update . 28/Frye


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 6 mi95 min 78°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 8 mi95 min 76°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 12 mi95 min E 8.9 78°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 13 mi95 min 78°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi155 min 77°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 13 mi155 min 78°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 13 mi95 min 78°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi155 min 78°F
TBYF1 15 mi95 min 79°F
JBYF1 15 mi95 min 78°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 16 mi95 min 78°F
THRF1 16 mi155 min 79°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 16 mi155 min 78°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 16 mi155 min 78°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 17 mi95 min 78°F
BKYF1 18 mi95 min 75°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 18 mi95 min 78°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 18 mi95 min 78°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 20 mi95 min 76°F
MDKF1 21 mi95 min 79°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 23 mi95 min 75°F
WWEF1 27 mi155 min 78°F
LRIF1 28 mi95 min 77°F
NRRF1 31 mi95 min 79°F
CWAF1 33 mi155 min 77°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 36 mi155 min 77°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi95 min 75°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi95 min 78°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 37 mi47 min ESE 9.9 G 14 80°F 79°F1020.7 hPa
SREF1 39 mi95 min 77°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 40 mi35 min E 14 G 18 78°F 72°F
HREF1 41 mi95 min 77°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 41 mi95 min 78°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 47 mi35 min ESE 18 G 19 78°F 77°F1021.7 hPa (+1.6)
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 49 mi95 min 76°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL33 mi4.7 hrsE 810.00 miFair77°F66°F71%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTH

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4SE7SE7E4SE8S5SE7SE6SE7SE7E8E6E5E6--E8E6E7E7E6E7E8E8
1 day agoS3E5SE9SE7SE6SE9SE7SE7SE7SE6SE6SE4SE5SE4CalmNE3CalmSE3CalmCalmE3CalmNE3NE4
2 days ago------NE12NE12NE12NE10NE9NE7NE11NE13NE12NE10NE9NE9NE8NE9NE6E6E6E6E6E8SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tavernier Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:06 AM EST     1.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:23 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:12 PM EST     1.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:17 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:43 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.30.60.91.11.21.210.70.50.30.10.20.30.50.811.11.10.90.60.40.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:56 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:43 AM EST     1.11 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:47 AM EST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:03 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:43 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:52 PM EST     0.60 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:18 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:03 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:39 PM EST     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.500.50.811.10.90.4-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.40.50.60.40-0.5-0.9-1.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.