Friday, January17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
"Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:55PM Friday January 17, 2020 7:58 AM EST (12:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:16AMMoonset 12:19PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 419 Am Est Fri Jan 17 2020
.small craft advisory in effect...
Today..Northeast to east winds near 15 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming very rough. Scattered showers developing in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast to east winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet, building to 4 to 7 feet after midnight. NEarshore waters extremely rough. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight.
Saturday..East winds near 25 knots early, decreasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet. NEarshore waters extremely rough, becoming very rough. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..East to southeast winds decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters becoming choppy. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East to southeast winds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..Northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. West of cosgrove shoal light seas building to 2 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Monday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet, except 5 to 9 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming very rough. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..North winds near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet, except 6 to 9 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..North winds near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. West of cosgrove shoal light, seas 5 to 7 feet, subsiding to 4 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters rough, becoming choppy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL
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location: 25, -80.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 171138 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 638 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

Aviation (12z TAFs). Scattered SHRA to affect east coast sites, mostly FLL/MIA area, through at least 18z and possibly beyond. MVFR ceilings around 2,000-2,500 ft will accompany these showers, along with brief visibility reductions. Gradually improving weather/ceilings after 00z. NE-E wind increasing to 20-25 knots by 18z, with periodic gusts to near 30 knots east coast sites.

Prev Discussion. /issued 346 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020/

.Windy Today through Saturday. .Hazardous Marine and Beach Conditions This Weekend.

Short Term (Today and Tonight) . As of the pre-dawn hours this morning, a band of showers associated with the backdoor cold front approaching South Florida is moving through Palm Beach County and the adjacent Atlantic waters. These showers will progress southward during the morning and reach the Broward and Miami-Dade County area and southern Atlantic waters after sunrise. Behind the initial band of showers, additional scattered showers will move onshore the east coast through most of day and spread inland to about a Lake Okeechobee to Marco Island line. North/west of this line, shower coverage should be rather minimal. PoPs depicted for today closely match the expected southward movement of the boundary, with rain chances peaking during the morning in Palm Beach County . and late morning through early afternoon over Broward, Miami-Dade, and southern Collier counties. Precipitable water values increase to 1.4 inches along the moisture/precip boundary, and along with decent low-level convergence, a few showers are capable of producing brief, heavy rainfall. However, strong high pressure in the mid levels will keep a lid on any deep moisture and convection, and this along with the quick movement of the precipitation will yield average amounts of a quarter of an inch or less.

As the front moves through today, NE winds will increase substantially and become quite gusty by afternoon, especially east coast metro and coastal areas. Frequent gusts near 30 mph can be expected by this afternoon, with peak gusts exceeding 35 mph in spots.

The front will clear the southern tip of the peninsula this evening, with drier air returning to the area in the form of precipitable water value under 1 inch by Saturday morning. Therefore, tonight should be rain-free over almost the entire area. Winds will continue to be strong and gusty tonight, particularly east coast.

Temperatures today will be a few degrees lower due to the clouds, precip, and modified cold air advection. High temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 70s most areas, except near 80 in Collier County. Lows tonight/Saturday morning will also trend a few degrees lower, especially interior and Gulf coast where lows are expected to drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Long Term (Saturday through Thursday Night) . Saturday will be drier with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s along the Atlantic coast to the lower 80s along the Gulf coast. The next frontal boundary will approach northwestern Florida on Saturday morning and progress across the panhandle on Sunday before reaching the peninsula of Florida. As the front moves into South Florida on Monday, not only will rain chances be on the rise but the potential of some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. A shortwave trough could sync well with the arrival of the convection ahead of and along the surface front which could provide support for some isolated thunderstorms on Monday.

Behind the front on Tuesday, drier and cooler air will begin to push southward along the peninsula of Florida as high pressure builds in over the central United States. Aloft, there is some divergence in the guidance with the GFS providing a solution with a much less defined mid-level trough that is ahead of the ECMWF with a developing cutoff low by Wednesday as both solutions show the trough/low aloft pushing off the southeast coast of the United States. The ECMWF solution has the cutoff low sitting off northeastern Florida by Tuesday night/Wednesday morning which may spur a surface low over the Atlantic waters. On the other hand, the GFS lacks the surface feature with the high pressure building east and south which would place the area more under northeasterly to easterly flow by Wednesday afternoon while the ECMWF solution keeps a more persistent northerly flow with the surface high pinned back to the north and west.

Such large differences between potential outcomes lowers confidence in the temperature forecast for this time range and beyond as the amount of cold air advected southward will be greatly influenced by this feature which models continue to struggle to consistently resolve. If the ECMWF solution is closer to the reality of what happens, then we could see a wind chill concern midweek as winds will be higher due to the gradient between the high to the northwest and the low over the Atlantic. Continue to monitor the forecast as there could be some great variations over the coming days with regards to midweek. The ECMWF ensemble hints at this with a temperature spread that can be 15 to 20 degrees between the highest and lowest members.

Near the end of the period, cooler temperatures remain as the air over the region has not greatly modified and little warm air advection is expected with the easterly to northeasterly flow. Increasing moisture will lead to a return of some Atlantic shower chances. The next disturbance emerges over the central United States to close out the forecast period.

Marine . Hazardous marine conditions over all local waters will be the main story as strong and gusty NE winds move in behind the cold front today. The onset of the stronger wind will be delayed until this afternoon over the southern waters, but solid 25 knot sustained winds are expected by this evening with gusts around 30-32 knots. These values are close to gale conditions, but with 0-1 km winds in the 30-knot range and relatively modest low level lapse rates, don't expect high enough frequency of gale force gusts to warrant a Gale Warning at this time. Small craft advisories are in effect for all waters through at least late tonight, and through Saturday for all Atlantic waters. Large north swell of 4-6 feet (highest off Palm Beach County) is expected to arrive over the Atlantic waters late tonight and continue through Sunday. This will result in wave heights of over 10 feet in the Gulf Stream much of this weekend. Over the Gulf of Mexico waters, seas will peak in the 5-7 ft range well offshore late tonight and early Saturday. Winds will decrease Saturday night, but as mentioned above the seas will take a while to decrease and probably not below 5 feet in the Atlantic until Monday. The next cold front will move through the local waters late Monday, accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms, then followed by another period of hazardous marine conditions for early next week as north winds increase to 20 knots or higher and seas once again build in excess of 7 feet.

Beach Forecast . Strong and dangerous rip currents will return to the Atlantic beaches today and continue through most of the upcoming holiday weekend. The large swell mentioned in the marine section above will contribute to very hazardous beach conditions and rough surf, especially on Saturday when breaking waves could approach high surf advisory criteria along the Palm Beach County coast. Will let the day shift assess the latest information and trends and determine whether a high surf advisory is needed for Palm Beach County or any other part of the Atlantic coast.

Prev Discussion . /issued 1248 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020/

Aviation (06z TAFs) . Cold front will move south through the TAF sites between 12z-18z, with lowering ceilings to around 4,000 ft and occasional 2,000-2,500 ft in scattered SHRA. As the front moves south of the area after 18z, gusty NE wind to 25-30 knots will affect the TAF sites with lingering MVFR ceilings around 2,500 ft at east coast sites for remainder of forecast period.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 76 68 75 64 / 30 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 78 68 75 68 / 40 10 10 0 Miami 78 67 76 67 / 50 10 10 0 Naples 80 61 80 62 / 20 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for AMZ651-671.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday for AMZ610.

GM . Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for GMZ656-657-676.

Aviation . 59/Molleda


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 6 mi118 min 73°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 8 mi118 min 74°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 12 mi118 min NE 7 74°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 13 mi118 min 76°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi178 min 74°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 13 mi118 min 74°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi178 min 79°F
TBYF1 15 mi118 min 74°F
JBYF1 15 mi118 min 75°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 16 mi178 min 73°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 16 mi118 min 73°F
THRF1 16 mi178 min 75°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 16 mi178 min 74°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 17 mi118 min 74°F
BKYF1 18 mi178 min 73°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 18 mi118 min 77°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 18 mi118 min 74°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 20 mi118 min 73°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 23 mi118 min 73°F
WWEF1 27 mi178 min 74°F
LRIF1 28 mi118 min 75°F
NRRF1 31 mi118 min 75°F
CWAF1 33 mi178 min 74°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 36 mi178 min 74°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi118 min 73°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi118 min 75°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 37 mi58 min E 5.1 G 7 73°F 75°F1023.4 hPa (+0.8)
SREF1 39 mi118 min 75°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 40 mi38 min E 14 G 17 75°F 65°F
HREF1 41 mi118 min 74°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 41 mi118 min 76°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 47 mi58 min ENE 12 G 13 76°F 76°F1023.6 hPa (+0.8)
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 49 mi118 min 72°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL33 mi65 minENE 610.00 miFair73°F62°F69%1023.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTH

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NE8E7E9--E9E6----E11E9----E9E9----E8E7E7E8E6--E6
1 day agoE7E9E7----E9
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2 days agoE9
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E7------E7E6E7--E6E9E7--------E7

Tide / Current Tables for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tavernier Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:05 AM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:00 AM EST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 08:24 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:18 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:25 PM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:56 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.21.31.310.70.40.2000.20.50.91.11.31.31.10.80.50.2-0-0.1-00.2

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:56 AM EST     1.04 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:19 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:00 AM EST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 08:07 AM EST     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:23 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:19 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:12 PM EST     0.85 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:56 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EST     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.910.90.70.2-0.4-0.8-1-0.9-0.6-0.20.30.70.80.80.60.2-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.2-1-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.