Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

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Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 052349 AAB AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 749 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

. 00z Aviation Update .

Aviation. Convection has started to decrease this evening. A further decrease is expected overnight. VFR conditions is expected through the overnight and into Monday morning. More convection is expected on Monday with brief VIS/CIG reductions in strongest convection, especially along the Atlantic coast where the best convective potential resides. Winds should remain light and variable.

Prev Discussion. /issued 258 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020/

Short Term .

Rest Of This Afternoon (Mesoscale Update) .

Visible satellite loops indicate more widespread boundary-layer cumulus development across South Florida today compared to yesterday -- indicative of greater tropospheric moisture content responding to mass fluxes along the periphery of a northern Gulf cyclonic-flow perturbation. As a result, convective coverage today should be greater today than yesterday -- more scattered to numerous today. Precipitable water has increased by around 0.2 inch during the past day, which will increase the conditional potential for precipitation loading to strengthen downdrafts, while midlevel lapse rates remain at a similar 6.0-6.5 C/km. Midlevel winds today are west-southwesterly around 15 kt -- about 5 kt weaker than those yesterday. Given the marginal decrease in already modest vertical shear, though still locally enhanced along and east of the east-coast sea-breeze boundary that has edged inland, the boosted tropospheric moisture should still maintain a microburst potential with convection maturing and advancing toward the east coast in through 7PM. Lateral expansion of related strong-wind potential could accompany cold-pool amalgamation toward the east-coast vicinity after around 4PM. An isolated damaging wind gust could occur as a reasonable worst- case scenario, especially where low-level lapse rates steepen the most from metro/coastal Broward into metro/coastal Palm Beach County. Also, isolated hail -- mostly small -- could accompany incipient updraft stages. Though, sufficiently cool midlevel profiles could support an isolated risk for quarter-size hail. Frequent lightning and torrential downpours are expected, and backbuilding convection could yield a localized-flooding risk.

Overnight and Monday .

Overnight tonight temperatures will drop into the mid 70s over the interior with upper 70s along the gulf coast and near to low 80s over the east coast metro. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Gulf and Atlantic waters overnight.

Another day of unsettled weather is expected with the start of the week. High pressure with a light and variable wind flow across the region. A low pressure system along a stalled frontal boundary is expected to move in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile across South Florida abundant moisture remains with PWATs around 1.9-2 inches. Sea breezes will develop in the afternoon with this being the main forcing mechanism to initiate convection, Additional convection will develop along sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions. Main impacts will continue to be the same across South Florida with frequent lightning, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and small hail possible.

Afternoon temperatures will continue to be above normal in the lower to mid 90s across the area. Heat indices will continue to soar into the triple digits up to 106.

Long Term .

Monday Night through Tuesday .

Broad mid/upper troughing will prevail across the southeast States, with zonally elongated ridging extending from the western Atlantic through the Bahamas and southeast Gulf of Mexico. A surface front attendant to the upper wave will remain draped across the coastal Gulf Coast states, with surface cyclogenesis potentially occurring somewhere along the frontal zone well to our north. Our location along the western periphery of the upper ridge will maintain weak southwesterly flow aloft with light south/southeasterly flow through the lower troposphere. The reservoir of relatively deep moisture remains in place, with model forecast precipitable water values remaining at or above 2 inches through the period. While the mid levels shouldn't be particularly cool given the ridging in place, low-level diabatic heating and the aforementioned moisture should result in plentiful thermodynamic instability and convective initiation along the inland advancing sea breeze boundaries. Given the rather light flow pattern thunderstorm development may spread back towards coastal areas later in the afternoon along colliding outflow boundaries. It appears that thunderstorm coverage may be a bit more widespread on Tuesday given slightly deeper moisture and less influence from the low level ridge. That said afternoon PoPs of 40-50 percent are still anticipated for inland areas each afternoon. A few stronger storms are possible, and a localized/urban flooding risk may develop given slow storm motions. Very little change in temperatures is expected during this period with above average readings expected. Highs away from the coasts will be well into the 90s, with lows in the 70s inland and lower 80s along the coasts. Maximum heat indices of 100 to 108 degrees are likely, so caution should be exercised by those working outdoors.

Wednesday through Sunday .

The upper trough will gradually lift from the Southeast CONUS into the mid Atlantic States as ridging at the surface and aloft briefly expands across the southern Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean Sea. A low pressure system, potentially with subtropical characteristics, should be in the vicinity of the coastal Carolinas early in the period, before pulling away to the north by late week. However, residual troughing may extend southwest of this feature for a time. Given deep moisture, light tropospheric flow, and the usual sea breeze circulation patterns daily shower/thunderstorm development is anticipated. However, there is some murkiness with convective trends and coverage by late week depending upon the evolution of the large scale pattern. It's possible that a more widespread heavy rain/localized flooding risk could develop during this time. Keep up with forecast changes. Otherwise the warm pattern looks to continue with above average temperatures expected.

Marine .

Generally benign boating conditions continue through the forecast period for all South Florida coastal waters. Only exception will be with any thunderstorm that may form, which will bring brief localized periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 77 92 78 92 / 60 60 20 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 91 80 91 / 40 40 30 50 Miami 80 93 80 92 / 30 50 20 50 Naples 77 92 78 94 / 20 50 10 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Mesoscale Update . Cohen Tonight through Monday/Marine . Kelly Monday Night through Sunday . SPM Aviation . 28/Frye

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL	6 mi	116 min			93°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL	8 mi	116 min			93°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL	12 mi	116 min	SSE 5.1		94°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL	13 mi	116 min			93°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL	13 mi	176 min			94°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL	13 mi	176 min			93°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL	13 mi	116 min			92°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL	15 mi	176 min			94°F
TBYF1	15 mi	116 min			94°F
JBYF1	15 mi	116 min			94°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL	16 mi	116 min			94°F
THRF1	16 mi	176 min			92°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL	16 mi	176 min			93°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL	16 mi	176 min			94°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL	17 mi	116 min			94°F
BKYF1	18 mi	116 min			93°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL	18 mi	116 min			93°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL	18 mi	116 min			95°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL	20 mi	116 min			91°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL	21 mi	46 min	SSW 5.1 G 7	86°F			1015.6 hPa	75°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL	23 mi	116 min			91°F
WWEF1	27 mi	176 min			91°F
LRIF1	28 mi	116 min			92°F
NRRF1	31 mi	116 min			91°F
CWAF1	33 mi	176 min			92°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL	36 mi	176 min			92°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL	36 mi	116 min			87°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL	37 mi	116 min			90°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL	37 mi	62 min	S 4.1 G 5.1	85°F	92°F		1016.2 hPa
SREF1	39 mi	116 min			91°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL	40 mi	46 min	S 4.1 G 5.1	85°F			1016.6 hPa	76°F
HREF1	41 mi	116 min			89°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL	41 mi	116 min			91°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL	47 mi	56 min	W 9.9 G 11	81°F	85°F		1016.6 hPa (+1.5)
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL	49 mi	116 min			92°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL	33 mi	63 min	S 4	7.00 mi	Thunderstorm in Vicinity	86°F	75°F	72%	1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTH

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (21,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL

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Gulf Stream Current

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