Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
"Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:43PM Friday April 10, 2020 8:21 AM EDT (12:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:48PMMoonset 8:09AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- 432 Am Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
.small craft should exercise caution for increasing winds...
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy.
Tonight..West to northwest winds 15 to 20 knots early, shifting northeast and decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a light chop.
Saturday..East winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..East to southeast winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas building to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters becoming choppy.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy.
Sunday night..Southeast to south winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters rough.
Monday..Southeast to south winds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters becoming a light to moderate chop.
Monday night through Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL
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location: 25, -80.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 101131 AAA AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 731 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

. 12z Aviation Update .

Aviation. A few sites have bounced between VFR and MVFR conditions overnight. This will likely continue through the mid morning hours before improving to low-end VFR later this morning into the afternoon. Carried VCs again this cycle for the the northern terminals. Winds will shift more northerly behind the front later this afternoon and tonight with low-end VFR (perhaps brief drops to MVFR from time to time) continuing through the remainder of the period.

Prev Discussion. /issued 217 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020/

.NEAR RECORD HIGHS EAST COAST AREAS TODAY. .A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

Short Term .

Today into Tonight .

A cold front over Northern Florida will continue to move quickly down the Sunshine State and into South Florida late this afternoon into this evening. This will keep the wind flow over South Florida in a west to southwest direction today leading to another very warm day across the interior and east coast metro areas with highs getting close to record highs for the east coast metro areas. More on the record highs in the climate section below.

There will also be a chance of showers and even a few thunderstorms over the interior and west coast metro areas this afternoon into early this evening, as some moisture will be working into the region from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the cold front. The west coast metro areas will also see a slight chance of showers this afternoon.

A few of the storms could become strong especially over the northeastern areas of South Florida this afternoon, as a mid to upper level jet around 50 knots will be clipping the northeastern areas as it moves through Central Florida. The 500 mb temperatures will also be cooling a little bit this afternoon down to around -9C over the northern areas of South Florida. At this time, it looks like the main threats from the storms will be gusty winds and possible small hail. Therefore, these threats will be mentioned in the morning HWO package.

This Weekend .

The cold front will stall out over South Florida tonight into Saturday before going back northward on Sunday, as low pressure develops over the Southern Gulf coast States and moves northeast into the Tennessee valley. This will allow for the wind flow to become more easterly on Saturday before going southerly on Sunday over South Florida. At the same time, both the east and west coast sea breezes will develop each day and push inland.

There could still be some showers around on Saturday over South Florida due to the moisture associated with the stationary front. This will lead to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms especially over the interior areas where the sea breeze collide. On Sunday, the best chance of showers will be around Lake Okeechobee region where the sea breezes and Lake breeze collide.

Long Term .

The low pressure will move quickly to northeast into the Great Lakes Region early next week, as a trailing cold front moves southward into Central Florida. The front will then stall over Central Florida for the middle to end of next week. This will allow for the wind flow over South Florida to be more of a south to southwest direction leading to another around of very warm to hot conditions over the interior and east coast metro areas. Highs for most of next week looks to be in the lower to mid 90s with heat indices getting up into the upper 90s to low 100s. The west coast metro areas will be a little bit cooler with highs only getting up into the upper 80s to around 90, but the heat indices will still be getting up into the mid 90s to near 100 degrees each day.

There is a low end chance of POPs each day next week with the best coverage around the Lake Okeechobee region and the northeast areas where the sea breezes and Lake breezy collide. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two each afternoon especially over the interior and east coast metro areas for the middle to end of next week with the stationary front near by. At this time, it looks like the primary threat from any storm that does develop will be lightning strikes.

Marine .

Winds out ahead of the approaching front will increase across the Atlantic waters. SCEC headlines are up for those zones. Winds will likely subside today as the front begins to push through then quickly increase behind the front later tonight. At the moment, only expect SCEC conditions . which should continue off an on through Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, winds will quickly transition to a southeasterly direction and increase again. Hazardous marine conditions can be expected for the Atlantic waters and maybe even Gulf waters from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

Aviation (06Z TAFS) .

Low stratus currently across western portions of South Florida may expand towards the eastern terminals this morning, but uncertainty exists as to how much cloud coverage there will be. Amendments are possible. Mix of primarily VFR and MVFR ceilings expected this afternoon with scattered showers. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, bringing brief/local sub-VFR conditions.

Climate .

Here are the forecast highs and the record highs for the east coast sites for today.

Cities Forecast Highs Record Highs MIA 92 92 - 1982 FLL 91 94 - 1933 PBI 90 90 - 2011

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 90 69 79 73 / 50 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 73 81 75 / 40 10 20 10 Miami 92 72 83 75 / 30 10 20 10 Naples 84 68 86 71 / 20 0 20 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Aviation . 28/Frye


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 6 mi81 min 82°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 12 mi81 min SSW 14 81°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 13 mi81 min 82°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi141 min 83°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 13 mi141 min 82°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 13 mi81 min 83°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi141 min 82°F
JBYF1 15 mi81 min 83°F
TBYF1 15 mi81 min 82°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 16 mi81 min 84°F
THRF1 16 mi141 min 82°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 16 mi141 min 81°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 16 mi141 min 82°F
MNBF1 17 mi81 min 83°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 17 mi81 min 82°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 18 mi81 min 83°F
BKYF1 18 mi81 min 79°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 18 mi81 min 81°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 20 mi81 min 82°F
MDKF1 21 mi81 min 83°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 23 mi81 min 81°F
WWEF1 27 mi141 min 83°F
LRIF1 28 mi81 min 83°F
NRRF1 31 mi81 min 83°F
CWAF1 33 mi141 min 82°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 36 mi141 min 84°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi81 min 82°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 37 mi51 min W 5.1 G 8 78°F 83°F1011.8 hPa
SREF1 39 mi81 min 82°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 40 mi31 min W 11 G 13 79°F 74°F
HREF1 41 mi81 min 81°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 41 mi81 min 84°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 47 mi81 min W 17 G 18 77°F 79°F1011.1 hPa (+1.1)
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 49 mi81 min 82°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL33 mi28 minW 710.00 miFair79°F73°F82%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTH

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W6W6W7NW8W8W9W8NW8W10NW10NW9NW8W5W6W6W5W5SW5W6W6W7SW5W7
1 day agoW464S5S4W86N7N6NW6W5W5W5W4W5W4W4W4W3CalmCalmSW4SW4SW4
2 days agoS33SE5SE5SE6S4S5S46S4SE3CalmS3CalmCalmE3CalmS3CalmCalm3SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tavernier Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:37 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:32 AM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 PM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.410.50.1-0.1-0.20.10.40.91.31.61.61.410.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.20.20.71.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:28 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:16 AM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:12 AM EDT     1.26 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:22 PM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:49 PM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.20.4-0.5-1.2-1.5-1.5-1-0.40.411.31.20.80.2-0.6-1.4-1.8-1.7-1.3-0.60.211.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.