Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
"Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:55PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 7:48 AM EDT (11:48 UTC) Moonrise 8:01PMMoonset 8:38AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 425 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Today..Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south to southwest. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Tonight..Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Thursday..Variable winds near 5 knots. Seas less than 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Friday..East to southeast winds increasing to near 10 knots. Seas building to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters becoming a light chop. Isolated showers.
Friday night..East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday and Sunday night..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL
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location: 25, -80.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 161129
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
729 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Aviation
GenerallyVFR conditions are expected through the period, although
some fog may be possible across the interior areas for a few hours
this morning and again early tomorrow morning. Winds become sw
today as a front approaches the region.

Prev discussion issued 301 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
short term...

today through Thursday night...

Wednesday is a day of transition as surface high pressure gives way
to an approaching cold front. Ahead of the front, the wind will back
from the southeast to the south and eventually become southwesterly
later today. Increasing moisture today will allow for an increase in
shower activity, and a non-zero chance of thunderstorms, this
afternoon. The focus for convection will be along the atlantic
coast, where the southwesterly flow will pin any attempt at the east
coast sea breeze. Warm temperatures in the lower 90s could again
flirt with records if temperatures were to be a few degrees warmer
than forecast today.

Diurnally driven convection should diminish after sunset but the
increasing surface moisture will lead to the potential of fog on
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With the front remaining
around or just north of the region, additional gulf moisture surges
on Thursday could lead to increased shower and thunderstorm coverage
over a good portion of the day. Peak convective activity is still
expected in the late morning into the evening hours. Maximum
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Thursday,
which should be a few degrees cooler in most areas compared to
Wednesday. The threat of fog returns for Thursday night Friday
morning as sufficient surface moisture, light wind flow, and drier
air aloft could once again provide for efficient radiational
cooling.

Long term...

Friday through Wednesday...

the aforementioned frontal boundary will sag southward over south
florida Friday before stalling just north of the florida keys as
ridging aloft elongates east to west and tightens. By Saturday,
this boundary lifts back north as a warm front, keeping southerly
to southwesterly wind flow and ample moisture across the region. A
couple of weak impulses meandering through the zonal flow will
swiftly cross the CWA over the course of the weekend. This in
combination with increasing moisture will keep scattered to
numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms in the forecast
throughout the weekend.

There are a few things to note with the forecast this weekend...

1. With a prevailing S flow, if the east coast sea breeze does
develop, then it will likely get pinned across the east coast.

This means that localized flooding will be possible, especially
with heavy rainfall rates, previous rainfall, and widespread
coverage.

2. GFS is suggesting storm relative helicity (srh) values creep
towards 300 m2 s2 Saturday afternoon. With additional areas of
localized convergence and lift, ie boundary collisions, wouldn't
be surprised for brief bouts of weak rotation.

3. Forecast derived pw's will also be on the rise due to the
shortwaves passing through and the S SW flow. Forecast soundings
represent a sufficiently moist profile further indicating the
potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Now, a lot of this is dependent on a rather energetic low pressure
system and its development track across the gulf of mexico. The
gfs and ECMWF continue to disagree on both intensity of the system
and path. The GFS takes the low toward the florida panhandle late
weekend while the ECMWF weakens the low and takes it toward the
gulf coast states. If the GFS solution prevails, then the forecast
will be a lot soggier this weekend as opposed to the ecmwf. As of
0200 am edt, the national hurricane center (nhc) is giving the low
pressure a 40 percent chance of formation in the next 5 days.

By early next week, a brief drying trend looks to occur across the
region, however by mid-week, a cold front tries to cut through the
state and pops once again increase.

Marine...

predominantly easterly winds will shift from the south throughout
the day today with speeds of around 10 to 15 kt. By Friday, winds
look to be light and variable due to a stationary frontal boundary
though this is short lived and winds are forecast to pick back up
from the SE at 10 to 15 kt Saturday before shifting from the s
Sunday.

Lingering NE swells of 1 foot or less in the atlantic waters
offshore palm beach county today before subsiding overnight. By
this weekend, a low pressure system in the gulf will deliver
higher seas of 4 to 6 feet and a W SW swell of 1 to 2 feet in the
gulf waters. Both seas and swells diminish throughout the
beginning of next week.

Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances over the local waters
especially late this week.

Beach forecast...

a coastal flood statement is in effect for the east coast today
for possible flooding during times of high tide. With a decrease
in northeasterly swell, the threat for rip currents decreased,
though a slight risk for rip currents is possible for all south
florida beaches today. As winds shift from the south southwest
towards the end of the work week, the threat for rip currents
along the east coast beaches should stay on the slight end though
may increase for the gulf coast beaches.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 90 74 88 74 20 20 50 20
fort lauderdale 89 76 88 76 20 10 50 20
miami 89 76 89 75 20 10 40 10
naples 88 76 87 73 20 20 30 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 32 mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 6 mi48 min 82°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 8 mi48 min 82°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 12 mi48 min E 2.9 83°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 13 mi48 min 83°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi108 min 83°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 13 mi108 min 82°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 13 mi48 min 82°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi108 min 86°F
TBYF1 15 mi48 min 84°F
JBYF1 15 mi48 min 84°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 16 mi48 min 88°F
THRF1 16 mi108 min 82°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 16 mi108 min 83°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 16 mi108 min 82°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 17 mi48 min 84°F
BKYF1 18 mi48 min 83°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 18 mi48 min 84°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 18 mi48 min 83°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 20 mi48 min 83°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 21 mi18 min 82°F 1013.5 hPa77°F
MDKF1 21 mi48 min 83°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 23 mi48 min 82°F
WWEF1 27 mi108 min 83°F
LRIF1 28 mi48 min 83°F
NRRF1 31 mi48 min 83°F
CWAF1 33 mi108 min 83°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 36 mi108 min 83°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi48 min 82°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi48 min 82°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 37 mi48 min S 1.9 G 2.9 79°F 84°F1014.3 hPa (+0.5)
SREF1 39 mi48 min 83°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 40 mi18 min SSE 8 G 8.9 82°F 76°F
HREF1 41 mi48 min 82°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 41 mi48 min 83°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 47 mi48 min SSE 11 G 12 81°F 83°F1014.6 hPa (+0.0)
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 49 mi48 min 84°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL33 mi55 minSE 310.00 miA Few Clouds81°F75°F85%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTH

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E6E6E5E6E7E6E9E5E8E4E46E5E5E7E5E8SE8SE6SE53SE3SE3
1 day agoE4E4E6E7E9E7E9SE7E7
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2 days ago4E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tavernier Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:05 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:18 AM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:20 PM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.30.90.60.30.20.30.60.91.31.61.71.71.51.20.90.60.50.40.60.91.21.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:34 AM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:47 AM EDT     1.43 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:07 PM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:54 PM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.2-0.4-1-1.4-1.5-1.1-0.60.10.81.31.41.20.80.2-0.4-1-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.20.40.91

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.