Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

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Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 052001 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 301 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Discussion.

Short Term (Tonight through Friday Night): the only noteworthy feature this afternoon are veils of cirrus racing across the South Florida skies as the area remains under the influence of high pressure centered over the SE CONUS. Temperatures tonight will be a few degrees warmer, with upper 40s to low 50s across most of the region. The only exception being the east coast metro areas, which will be near 60.

Through the day tomorrow, the surface high will continue to slide eastward into the western Atlantic, veering winds further out of the east to southeast. The return of an easterly component to the flow will moderate the airmass and induce a gradual warming trend across the region. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 70s across most of the area and low 80s over the southwestern portions.

.Long Term (Saturday-Thursday): Saturday, the dominant high pressure across the SE states will continue to migrate further east and into the West Atlantic. This will bring east to south east winds, which will be veering ahead of an approaching front. The parent low will be migrating across the southern states during the weekend, with the latest global models depicting the best dynamical support remaining to the north of SoFlo. Therefore, only a very modest increase in moisture and a few showers are expected for the Saturday through Monday timeframe.

With the described synoptic scenario in place, temperatures should continue to climb back to near normals with morning lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s by Sunday. Afternoon highs will likely hit the upper 70s to lower 80s.

For next week, model solutions show an amplifying mid-upper level trough across the eastern seaboard, which will once again veer flow to the south and southwest ahead of an associated frontal boundary moving thru the SE US and the peninsula. This will bring increased moisture advection from the south and increasing chances of showers from Tuesday and into the middle of the week. There are still some inter and intra-model differences regarding timing and overall intensity of this potential FROPA, so will refrain from departing from the consensus attm.

Marine. Generally dry conditions should continue into next week as high pressure remains across the region. Winds will begin to veer from northerly to easterly as high pressure slowly slides eastward tomorrow into the weekend. Seas will be generally 3 feet or less across local South Florida waters. The minor northerly swell over the Atlantic nearshore waters will gradually diminish through the day tomorrow.

Aviation. High pressure will keep dry, VFR conditions through the TAF period. Northerly flow may briefly swing out of the NNE this afternoon. Winds then become light and variable overnight with an increase out of the E to SE around 8 knots tomorrow.

Fire Weather. Conditions will improve tomorrow as easterly winds return, allowing minimum RH values to moderate back above 40.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 57 77 60 78 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 60 77 62 78 / 10 0 0 10 Miami 60 78 61 80 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 53 76 58 77 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Marine . 11/HVN Aviation . 11/HVN Fire Weather . 11/HVN Short Term . 11/HVN Long Term . SG/AR

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL	6 mi	54 min			71°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL	8 mi	54 min			72°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL	12 mi	54 min	NNE 6		71°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL	13 mi	54 min			71°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL	13 mi	114 min			72°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL	13 mi	114 min			69°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL	13 mi	54 min			73°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL	15 mi	114 min			71°F
TBYF1	15 mi	54 min			71°F
JBYF1	15 mi	54 min			70°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL	16 mi	54 min			70°F
THRF1	16 mi	114 min			71°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL	16 mi	114 min			71°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL	16 mi	114 min			70°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL	17 mi	54 min			71°F
BKYF1	18 mi	54 min			71°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL	18 mi	54 min			71°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL	18 mi	54 min			71°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL	20 mi	54 min			72°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL	21 mi	24 min		69°F			1017.4 hPa	60°F
MDKF1	21 mi	54 min			70°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL	23 mi	54 min			74°F
WWEF1	27 mi	114 min			69°F
LRIF1	28 mi	54 min			71°F
NRRF1	31 mi	54 min			67°F
CWAF1	33 mi	114 min			71°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL	36 mi	114 min			69°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL	36 mi	54 min			67°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL	37 mi	54 min			71°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL	37 mi	54 min	NE 5.1 G 8	69°F	73°F		1018.3 hPa (-0.4)
SREF1	39 mi	54 min			72°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL	40 mi	24 min	NE 8.9 G 13	70°F				59°F
HREF1	41 mi	54 min			71°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL	41 mi	54 min			68°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL	47 mi	54 min	N 9.9 G 12	70°F	78°F		1018.5 hPa (-0.4)
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL	49 mi	54 min			66°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL

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N2 G5

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NW1 G5

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NW2 G5

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N6 G9

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NE7 G10

NE11 G14

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NE12 G15

NE10 G13

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NE5 G8

1 day ago

NW4 G9

N3 G7

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NW7 G11

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NW9 G12

NW13 G16

W11 G14

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NW17 G22

NW18 G23

NW18 G23

NW20 G25

NW8 G15

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NE11 G15

NE12 G15

NE12 G16

N8 G13

NE11 G15

N10 G17

N11 G17

NE10 G14

N9

N8 G12

NE11

NE7 G10

NE6

N4

N3 G7

NW6 G10

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL	33 mi	61 min	NNE 8	10.00 mi	Fair	71°F	57°F	63%	1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTH

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)

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N5

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N6

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1 day ago

NW7

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2 days ago

NW12 G21

W15 G23

NW15 G22

NW11 G23

NW12 G19

NW12 G23

NW11 G17

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N8 G16

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Tide / Current Tables for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL

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Gulf Stream Current

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