Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
"Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:54PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 9:21 PM EDT (01:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:10PMMoonset 10:08AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 434 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Tonight..East to southeast winds near 15 knots, becoming east and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night and Thursday..East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night through Sunday night..Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL
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location: 25, -80.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 210008
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
808 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Aviation
Vicinity TS continues to linger around kapf early this evening,
with light shra pushing away from the east coast terminals.

Outside of an isolated, quick passing shra, conditions will
gradually dry over the next few hours and prevail overnight.

Tomorrow, east to southeasterly flow will once again help focus
afternoon convection across the interior and west coast.

Confidence is too low to mention TS for the east coast sites at
this time.

Update
A pair of convective concerns this evening as sea breeze enhanced
convection continues along the gulf coast while small cells are
developing over different portions of the atlantic waters, lake
okeechobee, and the eastern two-thirds of the southern peninsula
of florida. The influence of the surface trough is certainly
evident with the uptick in non-diurnally induced convection
traveling along the southeasterly flow this evening. The
convection will eventually focus over the coastal waters with the
potential to also affect the east coast metro overnight. An
updated set of zones will soon be transmitted to show the slight
increase in pops for the evening and overnight, mainly over the
waters. Otherwise the forecast is on track with no additional
updates anticipated this evening. Have a wonderful Tuesday night!

Prev discussion issued 437 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
discussion...

rest of today into tonight: a surface trough that has brought
increased shower and thunderstorm activity to the peninsula and
coastal waters over the past 12 hours will continue to progress
out of the region tonight into tomorrow as the atlantic ridge
builds back into S fl. Persistent easterly to southeasterly winds
will once again allow for the development of showers and
thunderstorms over the atlantic and gulf waters overnight tonight,
with the greatest coverage expected over the interior and gulf
coast.

Wednesday and Thursday: as the surface trough exits the region,
atlantic high pressure will once again become the dominant feature
through the remainder of the week. This typical summertime
pattern will favor diurnally driven convection each day along the
sea breezes with the greatest coverage expected over the interior
and gulf coast.

Friday into the weekend: a tropical wave that is currently
located near the bahamas is expected to progress westward into the
region late this week into the weekend, providing a moisture
surge that will increase overall rain and thunderstorm chances. In
addition, winds will become more light and southerly this
weekend, allowing for both atlantic and gulf sea breeze
development.

Early next week: winds will become more light and southerly,
allowing for diurnally driven afternoon convection along the
atlantic and gulf sea breezes. Storm coverage will be focused in
the interior and west coast.

Marine...

easterly to southeasterly flow will prevail through the week with
nocturnal easterly wind surges, mainly over the atlantic, that could
bring conditions near scec. Otherwise, winds and waves will
generally remain below headline criteria. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day and night over the local south florida
waters. Gusty and erratic winds with locally higher seas are
possible in and around any convection.

Beach forecast...

the persistent easterly to southeasterly flow through a good portion
of the week will allow an elevated risk of rip currents to emerge
along the atlantic beaches of south florida. The threat will be
moderate by Wednesday and could remain elevated into the weekend.

Hydrology...

with a few periods of heavy rainfall possible over the coming days
as troughs and associated moisture push across the region, the
potential for ground saturation leading to increased risks of
flooding remains. The west coast metro is an area that will require
some monitoring as the easterlies will restrict the progress of the
gulf sea breeze which will allow a convective focus to hang around
the naples area until the pattern shifts.

Fisheating creek at palmdale has a current stage of 6.38, which
places it on action stage below the flood stage of 7 feet. Ensemble
guidance points to a slightly drier period ahead in the basin over
portions of glades and highlands counties that feed into the creek.

This lends higher confidence to the forecast which calls for the
creek to crest at 6.5 feet with rains later in the week. We will
still need to monitor in case excessive rainfall above forecast
occurs in the basin, leading to rapid rises in the creek above flood
stage.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 78 91 78 90 30 50 20 30
fort lauderdale 80 91 79 89 30 50 20 30
miami 78 91 78 90 30 40 20 30
naples 75 90 75 90 20 70 30 50

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 11 hvn
update... 18 weinman & 02 rag
discussion... 18 weinman & 02 rag
marine... 18 weinman & 02 rag
beach forecast... 18 weinman & 02 rag
hydrology... 18 weinman & 02 rag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 6 mi81 min 89°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 8 mi81 min 89°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 12 mi81 min E 5.1 90°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 13 mi81 min 89°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi141 min 89°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 13 mi141 min 88°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 13 mi81 min 88°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi141 min 90°F
TBYF1 15 mi81 min 91°F
JBYF1 15 mi81 min 89°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 16 mi81 min 90°F
THRF1 16 mi141 min 90°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 16 mi141 min 88°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 16 mi141 min 89°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 17 mi81 min 89°F
BKYF1 18 mi81 min 90°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 18 mi81 min 90°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 18 mi81 min 90°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 20 mi81 min 89°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 21 mi31 min 84°F 1016.6 hPa77°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 23 mi81 min 87°F
WWEF1 27 mi141 min 89°F
LRIF1 28 mi81 min 90°F
NRRF1 31 mi81 min 89°F
CWAF1 33 mi141 min 89°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 36 mi141 min 88°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi81 min 87°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi81 min 88°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 37 mi51 min 84°F 89°F1017.1 hPa
SREF1 39 mi81 min 89°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 40 mi31 min ESE 14 G 18 85°F 1017.6 hPa77°F
HREF1 41 mi81 min 86°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 41 mi81 min 88°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 47 mi81 min ESE 9.9 G 11 83°F 86°F1018 hPa (+0.6)
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 49 mi81 min 90°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL33 mi28 minESE 910.00 miA Few Clouds85°F73°F70%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTH

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tavernier Creek
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Tue -- 12:29 AM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:55 PM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:08 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.210.70.40.20.20.30.50.81.11.31.31.31.10.80.60.40.30.30.50.81

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:18 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:18 AM EDT     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:20 PM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:41 PM EDT     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.60.2-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.1-0.8-0.30.30.8110.70.3-0.1-0.6-1-1.1-0.9-0.500.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.