Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tavernier, FL

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with respect to the current synoptic pattern and how it will evolve over the next 24-72 hours.
Generally speaking, southern stream shortwaves will propagate through the base of the broad central/eastern CONUS trough while the Southeast sits under the western periphery of low-level ridging. The southern stream wave over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley will move through the Southeast tonight through tomorrow. As it does so, the right entrance region of the departing upper-level jet will coincide with the afternoon seabreeze to support slightly more than usual large-scale ascent.
By tomorrow, full column moisture will increase a bit from today as the low/mid level ridge axis shifts south and east. The combination of moisture and forcing increase with unseasonably warm temperatures (instability), will favor storm development along the seabreeze as it moves east across South Florida. The best overlap of all the above contributors will most likely be across the Palm Beach county area where even deep layer shear will be non-zero. While most storms will be typical summertime storms, there is a low-end (5%) potential for damaging straight-line winds in the strongest (isolated) storm(s). Storms on Monday will follow the same general pattern and evolution along the seabreeze, and may be more numerous with more moisture available. With the departure of the upper-level wave, the isolated severe potential may be eliminated.

The buried lede is the heat that is expected to continue impacting south Florida over the coming days. Heat indices will be at least in the low 100s each afternoon, with various heat illness threat indices in the 4/5 category. Before spending any period of time outdoors, especially if strenuous activity is planned, visit ready.gov/heat and be sure to take necessary precautions.



LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Early next week, an upper level trough will eject out of the southern plains and move across the Gulf, with the trough axis eventually moving east of our region by mid week. This trough will also help push a frontal boundary across the area late Monday into early Tuesday, eventually settling south of the area over the Straits. This will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through at least Wednesday, with drier conditions expected for the end of the work week.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal next week, with highs generally ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the metro, to low and middle 90s over the interior. Overnight lows will be in the 60s/70s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF outside of storms.
Winds will remain generally light, with storm coverage gradually increasing over the next two days.

MARINE
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Generally benign marine conditions are expected this weekend.
Gentle south to southwest breezes are expected this weekend and through Monday, except locally moderate near the Atlantic coast during the afternoon and early evening. An isolated thunderstorm is possible today, with better chances Sunday into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 79 91 79 91 / 0 10 0 30 West Kendall 75 93 77 92 / 10 10 0 20 Opa-Locka 78 92 79 92 / 10 10 0 30 Homestead 78 91 79 90 / 10 10 0 20 Fort Lauderdale 80 89 80 89 / 10 10 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 79 90 79 90 / 20 20 10 30 Pembroke Pines 80 94 80 94 / 10 10 0 30 West Palm Beach 79 91 79 91 / 20 20 10 50 Boca Raton 80 89 81 90 / 20 20 10 40 Naples 76 92 77 92 / 10 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.