Monday, January20, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tavernier, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:57PM Monday January 20, 2020 12:00 PM EST (17:00 UTC) Moonrise 3:17AMMoonset 2:25PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- 620 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020
.small craft advisory will likely be required tonight...
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north and increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Tonight..North winds increasing to near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters becoming rough. Isolated showers in the evening.
Tuesday..Northwest to north winds decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters becoming a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..North winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters becoming very rough.
Wednesday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters very rough, become a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Thursday..East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Friday night..South to southwest winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tavernier, FL
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location: 25.01, -80.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 201428 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 928 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

Update. Cold front moved across soFlo a little faster than anticipated with the pre-frontal convection ahead of the main boundary already past the Florida Keys. Radar was showing a few small showers lingering over the Atlantic coastal waters, but these should also push further southeastward through the rest of the morning hours.

The 12Z MFL sounding came out fairly dry, with PWATS around 0.9 inches, and this was ahead of the FROPA. Thus, with the main boundary already pushing south of the Miami metro area, as suggested by the northward shift in winds and dropping dew points, will go ahead and remove all mention of showers for the rest of today and through Tuesday.

Models also backed down from bringing the surge of northerly winds in the wake of the FROPA for today or tonight, and the breezy/gusty conditions are not expected until late Tuesday when more robust cold/dry air advection establishes. Therefore, expect moderate northerly flow through Tuesday morning, with temperatures tonight dropping into the low-mid 40s inland and mid-upper 50s near the coast.

Prev Discussion. /issued 629 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020/

Cold front moving through South Florida this morning.

Short Term (Today and Tonight) . Some showers have developed ahead of the cold front this morning, with a focus over the local waters where more ample moisture exists to support convection. In general, activity early today should remain shallow showers with spartan coverage. As the front pushes through the area this morning, a general drying trend is expected from northwest to southeast throughout the day. Gusty northwesterly to northerly winds will last overnight with temperatures falling into the lower 40s over Glades and Hendry Counties, 40s across the rest of Southwest Florida and inland Southeast Florida, and mid to upper 50s along the Atlantic coast. Due to the Atlantic moisture, cannot rule out some shallow showers over the Atlantic waters which could push near the coast but things should generally remain dry after the main front pushes through.

Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday) . A shortwave trough will continue to swing southeastward across the SE CONUS and out over the Atlantic on Tuesday/Tuesday night, helping induce the formation of a surface low off the Carolina coast. This developing low will keep the gradient tight and breezy northerly winds in place over South Florida into Wednesday, when the surface low finally pushes off further into the Atlantic. This prolonged period in breezy northerly winds will leave more time for cooler and drier air to filter in across the area, making Tuesday night into Wednesday morning the coldest of the period with low temperatures ranging from the mid 30s west of the Lake/interior SW Florida to the upper 40s right along the East Coast. While frost is not expected to be a concern since winds should stay around 10mph or more overnight, a wind chill advisory (wind chill of 35 degrees or less and winds over 5 mph for 3+ hours) will be possible for some of the interior portions of the area.

Wednesday will remain cool under northerly winds with high temperatures in the 60s. Winds become more easterly Wednesday night as the surface low to the northwest moves further away, kicking off a gradual warming and moistening trend stretching into the weekend. In the meantime, another shortwave trough swinging across Texas will help induce a surface low over the northwestern Gulf on Thursday. The shortwave trough begins to phase with the longwave trough as it rounds the base of it, helping drag the surface low to the northeast across the Southeast CONUS on Friday. This system should ultimately drag another cold front through South Florida on Saturday, but with the loss of upper level support by this time not much convection is expected. This second front cools things off again but not nearly as cold as the first front, with low temperatures only expected to dip into the upper 40s west of the Lake to the upper 50s/near 60 along the East Coast Sunday night.

Marine . Stiff northerly to northwesterly flow behind today's cold front will allow for hazardous conditions to develop in the Gulf and Atlantic waters. There will be some brief improvement for the Gulf but the Atlantic waters could see the hazardous conditions linger through a good portion of the week. Some initial Small Craft Advisory issuances will go out with this forecast package but mariners are advised to stay aware of the latest forecast as these advisories will likely change in time and require extensions into the late parts of the week.

Beach Forecast . An elevated risk of rip currents will remain along the Atlantic beaches on this Martin Luther King, Jr. Day with a high rip current risk remaining along the Palm Beaches again today. The Gulf beaches will see an elevated rip current risk develop behind the cold front that may linger through mid-week. Meanwhile on the Atlantic beaches, the elevated rip current risk will remain through the week with some of the Palm Beaches maintaining the risk into the weekend potentially.

Prev Discussion . /issued 1238 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020/

Aviation . Some bouts of sub-VFR cigs (and possibly vsbys) overnight into the morning hours as showers ahead of a cold front push across South Florida. Lingering low cigs in the morning should improve by midday. Gusty northwesterly to northerly flow by afternoon which should become a tad lighter overnight Monday into Tuesday to close out the forecast period.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 71 54 66 46 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 73 56 68 47 / 40 20 10 0 Miami 75 54 69 45 / 30 10 10 0 Naples 71 47 63 41 / 10 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168.

AM . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ651- 671.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-670.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

Update . 17/AR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 9 mi61 min 73°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 12 mi121 min 74°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 13 mi121 min 73°F
THRF1 13 mi121 min 73°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 14 mi121 min 73°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 16 mi61 min 74°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 16 mi61 min 74°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 16 mi121 min 74°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 17 mi61 min 76°F
JBYF1 17 mi61 min 74°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 18 mi61 min 75°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 19 mi61 min NNW 11 74°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 20 mi61 min 74°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 20 mi61 min 74°F
TBYF1 21 mi61 min 74°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 24 mi121 min 74°F
BKYF1 25 mi61 min 74°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 25 mi61 min 75°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 28 mi61 min 73°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 31 mi61 min 73°F
WWEF1 33 mi121 min 74°F
LRIF1 33 mi61 min 73°F
NRRF1 36 mi61 min 74°F
CWAF1 39 mi121 min 73°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 41 mi121 min 73°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 41 mi61 min 72°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 43 mi61 min 74°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 43 mi61 min N 12 G 14 72°F 77°F1019.4 hPa (+0.9)
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 44 mi43 min NNE 4.1 G 8.9 74°F1019.8 hPa
SREF1 45 mi61 min 74°F
HREF1 46 mi61 min 73°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 46 mi61 min 73°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 47 mi21 min N 9.9 G 13 71°F 66°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL32 mi2.1 hrsNNW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F66°F82%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE5SE7SE8SE6S6S6S5CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3NW6NW9NW9NW12
1 day agoE16
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E15E13E10E9E6E6E7E8E10E7E6E6E5E4E3E3CalmE3E3SE3E8
2 days agoNE5NE7NE7NE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Molasses Reef, Florida
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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:50 AM EST     2.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:55 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:25 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:16 PM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.71.21.72.12.221.61.10.60.30.20.30.71.11.61.921.91.510.4-0.1-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:15 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:55 AM EST     1.25 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:00 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:57 AM EST     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:27 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:54 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:59 PM EST     0.72 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:20 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:50 PM EST     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-0.7-0.20.40.91.21.31.10.60-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.400.40.60.70.60.2-0.4-1-1.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.