Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Key Largo, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Surface high pressure will be positioned over the central Gulf today, while a stationary boundary settles along the SE US, unable to make much of an advance due to strong high pressure over the central Atlantic. Locally, winds will be fairly weak through 500 mb today with a SSE low level flow. Convection will be primarily sea- breeze driven today, however with the lack of steering flow compared to the past several days, the convection should impact more of the metro areas today. With PWAT values of 2.0-2.2 inches and fairly deep moisture throughout the column, efficient rainfall rates are expected, which may lead to an isolated urban/poor drainage flood threat. Ingredients for severe storms are fairly lackluster today, however a few stronger storms with wind gusts of 40-50 mph can't be completely ruled out. High temps today will be in the low to mid 90s. Combined with mid to upper 70s dewpoints, the max heat indices will again flirt with advisory criteria, especially in Miami-Dade and Broward. Expected convection early in the afternoon may prevent many locations from reaching criteria for at least two hours, so at this point will hold off on any hazards, but this may be re- evaluated later this morning.

Showers and storms will linger around the Gulf coast late tonight, with mostly quiet conditions overnight for the rest of South FL.
Seasonable low temps expected ranging from the low to mid 70s inland to near 80 closer to the coasts.

On Sunday we start to see a pattern shift that will hang around for much of the next upcoming week. Surface high pressure will shift to the southern Gulf, while low pressure riding along the stationary boundary approaches the SE US coast. Meanwhile, high pressure over the central Atlantic will start building to the west. This will result in a more westerly flow locally both in the low and mid levels which will bring higher rainfall chances to the east coast metro. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and early evening hours, and once again urban and poor drainage flooding will be a threat across the metro. While mean QPF totals are only ranging from 0.5-1 inch across SE FL, higher end probabilities of several inches are possible given the expected high rainfall rates. High temps on Sunday will be in the lower 90s, and with max heat indices of 105-110 expected, the eventual cloud cover and convection should prevent the need for any heat hazards on Sunday. Regardless though, anyone with outdoor plans this weekend should plan for the heat and stay hydrated along with taking frequent breaks.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The unsettled pattern will remain across South FL for much of the upcoming work week. A broad upper level trough will remain over New England and the Mid Atlantic, with surface and upper level high pressure over the west/central Atlantic. This will trap an area of enhanced moisture across South FL. With the low/mid level flow remaining westerly much of the week, this will result in above average PoPs across the east coast metro each day. While the rainfall will be much appreciated given the ongoing drought, will need to be on guard for the potential of urban and poor drainage flooding each day across the metro.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal, with high temps generally in the low to mid 90s and low temps ranging from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Light and variable winds this morning becoming southeast 5-10 kts from late morning through early evening, with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

MARINE
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Gentle southerly breeze expected across the Atlantic waters today, with gentle west to southwest breeze across the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms today may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
Outside of convection, seas will be 2 ft or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 92 79 92 77 / 70 30 70 40 West Kendall 92 75 92 75 / 70 30 70 40 Opa-Locka 93 78 93 78 / 70 30 70 40 Homestead 92 78 92 77 / 60 20 70 40 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 92 78 / 60 30 70 40 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 92 78 / 60 30 70 40 Pembroke Pines 94 80 94 79 / 70 30 70 40 West Palm Beach 92 77 93 77 / 60 20 70 40 Boca Raton 91 78 91 77 / 60 30 70 40 Naples 91 79 91 80 / 30 20 50 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.