Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Key Largo, FL

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

"Welcome to Ridge City" is what the previous shift had said when describing the current weather pattern over South Florida. Mid level water vapor imagery shows a stout ridge sitting squarely over the Florida Gulf coast, with the 12Z TBW upper air sounding showing 500 mb heights of 591 dm. H5 heights of this nature fall within the 90th percentile for this time of year according to local sounding climatology. As a result, temperatures this afternoon will climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s across South Florida, slightly above average for early June. Heat indices will be the 100 to 105 F range area-wide, which will lead to widespread Moderate HeatRisk across all metropolitan areas. The NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool is showing increased probabilities of 50% to 60% for seeing Major (level 3 of 4)
HeatRisk for portions of southwest Florida. These conditions will affect anyone without proper cooling/hydration as well as health systems and industries.

Both the previous 0z MFL sounding and the current 12z TBW upper air sounding show a very dry 700-500 mb layer, with MidRH values of 33% and precipitable water values down to 1.3 inches (within the 25th percentile for this time of year). However, the most recent ACARS aircraft soundings show a moistening lower level environment due to increased easterly flow. Some of this moisture will erode part of the mid-level dry air, as PWATs look to climb up to around 1.6 inches. Regardless, weak forcing and subsidence aloft will inhibit convection across most locations. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will mostly focus along the sea-breeze convergence over interior and southwest Florida during the late afternoon through early evening. This activity should be run-of-the-mill summertime showers, with lighting and gusty winds being the main threats. Rain amounts with these storms will generally be around an inch, with some locally heavier amounts of 2 to 3 inches under stronger downpours.

The main ridge axis begins to shift west and flatten slightly as a shortwave trough crosses over the Great Lakes region on Tuesday.
This will allow for some deeper moisture from the south to start making its way back up into the peninsula. As a result, drier mid level air and subsidence should continue to erode, with some slightly better ascent available. Once again, storms should focus along the sea-breeze convergence over the interior and southwest Florida, but coverage will be greater across the board compared to Monday's activity. Stronger storms will once again be unlikely, with typical summertime lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall being the main threat.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Not much change overall in the long term forecast as a large scale ridge pattern remains in control of the local weather through mid- week. As a mid-level trough advects from the Great Lakes through the eastern U.S. and begins to break down the upper level ridge, surface high pressure will still reside over the area. The main change going into the end of the week and this weekend is with guidance showing an area of low pressure forming in the southern to central Gulf with deep moisture advection occurring in tandem with the low's circulation. The separate ensemble suites of the long range models have come into better agreement now regarding this feature's evolution, although there is still some level of variance given that it is still 4-5 days out. The general conclusion is that low-level flow would be expected to veer more out of a southerly/southeasterly direction, which would likely lead to a setup with widespread rain showers and thunderstorms while also being almost evenly distributed across the region. Highest PoPs under a southerly/southeasterly regime will still favor interior areas, but coastal areas won't be drastically different. Currently from Thursday this week and into the weekend, PoPs range from 60-80% across the entire South Florida region.

Any rainfall accumulation potential is highly uncertain at this time, but will be communicated as QPF forecasts become more clear which is highly dependent on the strength and track of any low pressure center. Overall, the forecast is definitely trending on the wetter side of things from Thursday and beyond.

With increasing rainfall chances and expected cloud cover, high temperatures may be capped a few degrees lower than in recent days.
High temps will generally range from the upper 80s for most of the region to around 90 degrees for interior portions of South Florida.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR is expected to prevail for the period. Light winds the rest of tonight will increase out of the east again after 15-16Z to around 10 kts, with gusts up to around 15 kts. Scattered SHRA and TS are expected to form inland and away from terminals, so took out the mention of VCTS for this cycle. KAPF will be at highest risk for on site SHRA/TS and will also see winds shift to out of the W/WNW again in the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue across the local waters early this week, with winds becoming westerly to west- southwest in the afternoon for the nearshore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be more limited again today, but this coverage is expected to increase as the week progresses into the mid to late week period. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less for all local waters over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 89 77 88 77 / 20 20 40 10 West Kendall 90 76 89 75 / 30 20 40 10 Opa-Locka 90 77 89 77 / 20 20 40 10 Homestead 89 78 88 77 / 20 20 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 88 78 87 78 / 20 20 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 87 78 87 78 / 20 30 40 10 Pembroke Pines 91 79 90 79 / 20 20 40 10 West Palm Beach 88 78 87 78 / 30 30 40 10 Boca Raton 88 79 87 79 / 20 30 40 10 Naples 91 76 90 76 / 40 40 60 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.