Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Presidio, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

The heat is on, but that doesn't mean there won't be a chance of storms. That will be the story to close this week. Deterministic and ensemble models depict 500 mb geopotential heights above 588 decameters Thursday and Friday, with 1000-500 mb thicknesses near or above 576 decameters, indicating above average temperatures in an in the expanded column of warm air that has built over the southern CONUS after the brief cooler temperatures earlier this week.
Shortwave IR and Air Mass RGB satellite imagery shows little to not cloud cover early this morning. Mostly clear skies into early afternoon will allow for ample diurnal solar radiation, which coupled with the high May solar angle, will allow temperatures to soar at least 10 degrees above average. This translates to mid to upper 90s, upper 90s to triple digits along the Pecos River, Midland- Odessa area into northeast Permian Basin, southern Rio Grande basins, and upper 80s to lower 90s in higher elevations such as Lower Trans Pecos into Marfa Plateau. Clouds increase later in the day, but PoPs higher than 15% located farther northeast only extend into northeasternmost parts of Permian Basin this afternoon through this evening. Higher-res CAMs also depict most convection staying northeast of the area. Therefore, we can expect hot temperatures and a low probability of storms today. Southerly winds back to southeasterly today as a lee trough sharpens into a dryline, per WPC Surface Analysis. Southeasterly winds could become gusty from the SE NM plains into Stockton Plateau and parts of the Permian Basin this afternoon. This allows dew point temperatures in the 50s to the lower 60s F to advect westward to at least the 103W meridian. Apart from highest elevations of the Lower Trans Pecos into Marfa Plateau, ensembles are consistent in showing a high probability of highs greater than 90F today, with a medium probability of highs above 95F across the Upper Trans Pecos into most of the Permian Basin as well as the Presidio Valley into the Big Bend. There is also a medium to high probability of highs up to greater than 99F over the Upper Trans Pecos, southwesternmost Presidio Valley, and southernmost Big Bend.

These warm temperatures will be slow to cool off tonight even as only scattered high cloud cover forecast allows for radiation cooling, so NBM lows only fall into the 60s to lower 70s for most of the area. In the Canadian GEPS ensemble, there is a high probability for most if not all of the area of lows greater than 65F, medium to high probability of lows at least 65F, and medium to high probability from Upper Trans Pecos into Terrell County of lows at least 70F. For other ensembles such as GEFS, ENS, and Grand Ensemble, there is still a medium to high probability of lows only falling to 75F for the Upper Trans Pecos, southernmost Rio Grande basins, and Terrell County. This continues the stretch of warm nights, which while not meeting heat advisory criteria, will still feel warmer and more humid than what we've felt for this area since last summer.

The dryline retreats westward again Friday morning before advancing westward later in the day. This allows dew point temperatures to surge into the 60s F for most of the region north/east of Davis Mountains (>70% probability in ensembles). Warm and humid air, amplification of the back end of a short wave over the Missouri Valley increasing northwesterly low to mid tropospheric shear to 30 to 40 knots adequate for organization of rotating updrafts sustaining long-lived storms capable of producing severe weather, CAPE at least 500-1000 J/kg with mean values 2000 J/kg or above east of the dryline and higher than Thursday , and elongated hodographs with high winds out of the northwest in the upper troposphere overlying west-southwesterly winds in the mid troposphere and southerly winds in the lower troposphere: all indicate potential for more active convective weather than today. SPC has outlined Stockton Plateau into Permian Basin in a MRGL risk for Friday, up to 8 C/km lapse rates allowing for large vertical non hydrostatic motions and mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the surface in thunderstorm updrafts. Damaging winds look to be the main threat with storms Friday as LCLs remain high (> 2500 meters in high-res CAMs), SRH mostly below 80 m2/s2 magnitude threshold needed for tornadogenesis, freezing level stays higher up in the mid troposphere allowing for sufficient melting of any large hail in spite of low-level and mid- level RH below 70% outside of heavy precipitation. NBM PoPs still show isolated 20 to 30% PoPs from the leeward side of the Davis Mountains into the Stockton Plateau. Higher-res CAMs reflect this, indicating highest coverage of reflectivity in all CAMs over this region. These storms are expected to congeal and grow upscale, moving to the east/southeast. Upscale growth into the evening will enhance the damaging wind threat. Highs will not be much different than Thursday. NBM is still showing much lower PoPs than CAMS indicate, so rainfall accumulations of only a few hundredths of an inch are indicated in grids. For ensembles, similar with low spread just a few hundredths of an inch are indicated.
Therefore, despite CAMs showing storms over portions of the area today and tomorrow, the biggest story will remain the hot temperatures. However, a pattern change will be on the way later this weekend and continuing into next week. Read the long term discussion for more details.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Friday night, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are forecast to be under an upper ridge. However, a trough will be making landfall on the west coast, shunting this feature to the east and putting the area under progressive southwest flow aloft. A strong, 50+kt LLJ is set to develop, retreating the dryline to the western CWA border, and even farther west into Mexico, where convection is forecast to be ongoing. A few cells could cross the river into the Presidio Valley during the evening.

Saturday, thicknesses peak for perhaps the warmest day this forecast, and the warmest day so far this year as highs top out in the triple digits for much of the area, around 10-12 F above normal.
Convection is forecast to develop south of the border, but some of this activity could develop as far north as the Davis Mountains/Stockton Plateau during the afternoon/evening.

Sunday, the trough continues pushing into the region, but attenuates somewhat. Thicknesses start a downward trend, shaving 3-4 F off Saturday's highs. Sunday night, a 40+kt LLJ is forecast to develop, banking the dryline up against the higher terrain out west. To the north, a cold front will intrude upon the area, resulting in respectable chances of convection along and east of the dryline.
Long-range models increase deep layer bulk shear over Southeast New Mexico and areas of West Texas to the east, so we wouldn't be surprised to see a few cells go severe as the front pushes in.

Monday, the cold front pushes farther into the area, almost to the Presidio Valley by 00Z Tuesday. Highs will drop below normal most locations along and north of I-10, with a continuing chance of convection, mainly east where richer boundary layer moisture resides. Strong, deep-layer shear remains in place.

Tuesday/Wednesday, CAA continues, but surface flow slowly veers to east. This will continue to advect ample Gulf moisture into the region, sending the dryline to El Paso and beyond. By Wednesday afternoon, highs should be stumbling along ~ 8-10 F below normal, making it feel more like mid April than late May. Easterly upslope flow will result in decent chances of convection, and this will combine w/overcast skies to assist in the cooler temperatures. If trends go as they usually do, rain chances will decrease 5-10% a day between now and then.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR VIS and CIGs outside of showers/storms throughout TAF period, MVFR or lower in showers/storms. Winds increase across Eddy County after 21Z today and back from southerly to southeasterly, continuing into end of period. For terminals across Lea County into Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau, southerly winds back to southeasterly 00Z-03Z Thursday and become gusty, with highest gusts at or above 20 knots expected for terminals from Lea County into southern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. There is a low chance of showers/storms across eastern Stockton Plateau into Permian Basin from 19Z-01Z, but due to uncertainty in coverage and timing, left out mention in TAFs. Main risks with storms that occur will be damaging winds, lightning, and hail.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 100 68 99 73 / 10 10 10 0 Carlsbad 100 65 101 67 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 100 72 100 73 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 100 71 100 72 / 20 10 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 91 67 93 67 / 0 0 10 10 Hobbs 97 64 98 66 / 0 0 10 0 Marfa 92 62 93 63 / 10 10 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 99 70 99 73 / 10 10 10 0 Odessa 98 70 98 73 / 10 0 10 10 Wink 100 70 102 70 / 0 0 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.