Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Presidio, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Much warmer temperatures are in store heading into the short-term period. Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis has an upper-level low positioned over the Lower Mississippi Valley, along with an upper-level ridge extending from the Desert Southwest to the Great Plains. The upper-level ridge is expected to build in closer to the region today as the upper-level low progresses further eastward across the Gulf Coast states. This will result in gusty downslope winds, thus, dry and warmer conditions throughout the period. Increasing cloud cover is expected across portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico late this afternoon as shortwave impulses will form due to the ridge weakening. This could cool temperatures a degree or two for a few locations over these areas if cloud coverage increases during peak daytime heating. Regardless, high temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 80s to 90s with a few locations along the Rio Grande and Presidio valley regions reaching the lower triple digits.

Tonight, the upper-level ridge moves over the region. Guidance also has a 40-50 kt low-level jet forming across portions of the Upper Trans Pecos, Southeast New Mexico, and the Permian Basin, thanks to a developing surface low in the Great Plains. This will place low temperatures 5 to 13 degrees above normal for this time of year.

The low-level jet and the upper-level ridge stick around heading into Tuesday afternoon, supplying a very warm and breezy day across the forecast area. Breezy to strong westerly and west-nortwesterly winds are anticipated as the upper-level ridge continues to weaken, coinciding with a surface trough moving overhead. Wind hazards may be warranted in future forecast packages especially for locations in southeast New Mexico and west Texas. High temperatures are forecasted to mainly range in the 90s to lower 100s. The trend of hot temperatures persists into the long-term.

Lamberson

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

The well above normal temperatures persist into the long term as the mid-level ridge is maintained over the region. Temperatures start warm on Wednesday in the upper 60s and low 70s. The afternoon will not fair much better with a gusty west wind and temperatures pushing well into the upper 90s and low 100s across the area. It is going to feel like an oven with the gusty winds and a dry environment.

A weak front begins to swing into the region by Thursday morning.
This front is ushered through by a shortwave trough quickly passing to our north and lifting into the Upper Midwest. This takes most locations back into the upper 50s and middle 60s to start the day, but 70s hold on along the river valleys. Afternoon temperatures see an improvement as well, though remain above normal, as areas that saw 100s on Wednesday fall back into the 90s and those that saw 90s return to the 80s. Temperatures warm a degree or two for all on Friday to close out the week.

The weather pattern this weekend remains a little uncertain.
Temperatures are expected to hold relatively steady across the region, but will the dryline return? At the moment, long-range ensembles have slowed down the progression of our next shortwave trough and this greatly limits the westward retreat of the dryline.
There is still a low (<20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms along and east of the dryline this weekend, but this largely excludes our area except for very far eastern areas. Heading into next week, this trough is expected to begin progressing east, and may finally bring moisture back into our region.

-Chehak

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions continue through the period. Light southerly and southeasterly winds shift to breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon with occasional gusts up to 20-25 kts occurring at MAF, HOB, and CNM.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 94 65 101 72 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 94 70 99 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 96 67 105 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 95 70 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 86 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 91 65 95 67 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 88 61 94 63 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 93 67 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 92 67 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 96 67 102 71 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.