LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

By the end of the work week and into the upcoming weekend, upper level troughing will continue to dig southward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and over South Florida, maintaining west-north westerly flow over the region aloft. Meanwhile a persistent plume of deep tropical moisture remains in place over the region as a diffuse stationary frontal boundary meanders through this period.
The presence of cooler upper level temperatures (-6 to -7C @ 500 mb) and a pocket of divergence aloft may act to enhance convective coverage and intensity at times, though most convective will be driven by localized convergence maxima owing to mesoscale processes (sea-breeze and outflow boundary collisions). Expect bouts of periodic heavy rainfall to continue, particularly in the afternoon when instability and low-level convergence is maximized.
Heavy rainfall that persists for a prolonged duration over urban areas may result in the usual localized flooding concerns.

By Sunday and into early next week, a dominant/expansive ridge of high pressure will emanate from the TX/Mexico region and increase geopotential heights across South Florida. This may be commensurate with a wedge of drier air advecting towards the region through this same period (simultaneously), though there exists uncertainty regarding the southward extent of this drier air-mass. For now, it appears that strong upper ridging coupled with a lack of moisture should allow for rainfall totals that are below climatological norms through this period.

Temperatures through this period will hover around seasonal norms through this period. Afternoon high temperatures should reach the upper 80s to low 90, while dew points reach the mid to upper 70s through the early part of the weekend. Heat Advisories may be necessary during portions of this period, although that will be contingent on the rainfall and cloud coverage for any given afternoon. Towards the end of the weekend and into early next week, dew-points may drop a few degrees, although less cloud coverage and rainfall could allow for more oppressive temperatures through this period.

As of the 2am Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center now identifies an area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea with a 20% chance of tropical development over the next seven days. Readers are reminded that a lot can change in the 7-10 day time-frame, especially with the genesis and evolution of tropical systems. While the general pattern for tropical development appears to be favorable, it remains far too early to identify a potential track. In simplest terms, while deterministic model solutions will vary from run to run, it is very important to take them with several grains of salt. Ensemble model plots (EPS and GEFS) may provide a slightly clearer picture of what may unfold, however it is still quite early. Regardless of what transpires, this is an important reminder that we are in the midst of the peak of hurricane season. Although the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is on September 10th, the stretch of late September into the first half of October is the climatological peak for hurricane landfalls in South Florida.
Remain weather aware, check hurricane supplies, and most importantly, be sure to receive information from reliable sources such as the National Hurricane Center, NWS Miami, and local and national broadcast media sources.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours.
Light winds will increase out of the SE early Wednesday afternoon across the east coast terminals. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop as the afternoon progresses. These storms could bring sub-VFR conditions to the east coast terminals during this time frame and short fused AMDs will be likely. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the SW Wednesday afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE
Issued at 249 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Generally light winds will prevail across the area through most of this week as a weak surface boundary remains just to the north of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and could lead to locally higher winds and seas.

BEACHES
Issued at 249 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Minor to moderate coastal flooding will continue during periods of high tide due to astronomically higher tides associated with the full moon phase. Elevated tides will continue on both coasts of South Florida through the end of the work-week.

Upcoming High Tide Times:

Naples: 1:46 PM Wed, 1:52 AM Thu, 2:38 PM Thu Lake Worth: 8:38 AM Wed, 9:01 PM Wed, 9:31 AM Thu Port Everglades: 8:58 AM Wed, 9:19 PM Wed, 9:50 AM Thu Virginia Key: 9:45 AM Wed, 10:04 PM Wed, 10:36 AM Thu

Decreasing northerly swell will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches coast once again today with a moderate risk of rip currents elsewhere on the east coast of South Florida.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 93 77 92 75 / 70 50 70 60 West Kendall 92 75 90 73 / 70 50 70 50 Opa-Locka 93 76 92 75 / 70 50 70 50 Homestead 91 75 89 75 / 70 50 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 92 76 91 75 / 70 50 70 60 N Ft Lauderdale 92 76 92 75 / 70 50 70 60 Pembroke Pines 93 76 92 75 / 70 50 70 50 West Palm Beach 92 75 91 75 / 70 50 70 50 Boca Raton 92 75 90 75 / 70 50 70 60 Naples 91 77 90 76 / 60 40 50 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for FLZ069-075-168- 172>174.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.