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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 1000 Am Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..Winds ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft along the coast and 5 to 7 ft, occasionally to 9 ft in the gulf stream. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Hazy in the morning. A slight chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Tonight..Winds E ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers late in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..Winds ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed night..E ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers late in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thu and Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Fri night..E ne winds 5 to 10 kt becoming se after midnight, then becoming W nw in the morning. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt becoming N ne. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters smooth.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis..
a moderate to strong northeasterly breeze will prevail over the local waters today before weakening to a gentle to moderate breeze by mid-week as high pressure over the eastern us shifts offshore. Seas across the atlantic waters will remain hazardous today due to northeasterly winds and swell, before gradually subsiding by mid- week. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters today and could result in locally hazardous conditions.
gulf stream hazards: northeast winds 20 to 25 knots along with seas up to 8 feet today.

FXUS62 KMFL 031859 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 259 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

A surface to mid-level area of high pressure has settled into the Atlantic sea board of the United States to start this week. Along the clockwise circulation comes drier, cooler, and smokier air sourced from eastern Canada. Rain chances will remain low with shallow convection being the main potential over the Atlantic waters and coast. Temperatures will remain in the 70s overnight with mid 80s to lower 90s for the afternoon high. The northeasterly to easterly flow will favor warmer temperatures along the Gulf coast.

With the smoke from wildfire over eastern Canada, some reductions in visibility will need to be accounted for in the forecast. Hazy skies are likely through at least Wednesday and the lack of much rainfall to help clear the air will mean that any smoke trapped near the surface tonight could lead to fog development. This will need to be monitored through the evening, overnight, and into Wednesday morning to ensure that an advisory does not become necessary. The forecast carries this through early tomorrow morning with the wording of hazy with areas or patches of smoke in the zones and point-and-click.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Lower than normal climatological rain chances will continue across South Florida for much of the extended period as mid-level troughing over the western Atlantic waters will gradually develop into a cut- off low late this week. This will allow for the continued transport of dry air into the region via 500mb flow from the north. However, some low level boundary moisture from over the Atlantic waters will remain in place over South Florida. This, combined with favorable synoptic dynamics from the cut-off low, will allow for some showers and a thunderstorm or two to develop over the Atlantic waters each day. Some of these showers (and potentially a pesky isolated storm or two) may push southwest into the Atlantic Coast metro areas at times. Therefore, POPs remain 20-30% in place over the eastern areas of South Florida on Thursday.

The mid to upper level low should gradually dissipate over the western Atlantic waters, while troughing over the Southeast US pushes a weak front through South Florida this weekend. Moisture along this boundary looks meager at best with another push of dry continental air behind the boundary working into the region. Cannot rule out a few isolated showers Friday through Sunday but outside of that, the majority of us will remain dry with quiet weather prevailing. There are some discrepancies in the ensemble forecast for early next week as guidance generally disagrees on when the frontal boundary will lift back northward across the region. The latest guidance depicts the boundary lifting northward across the region during the early week period which will result in a resurgence of moisture northward into our region. The latest forecast indicates the potential for POPs to be in the 30-50% range on Monday and Tuesday, although that is subject to change given model uncertainty and run to run variability.

High temps each day will be in the upper 80s over most areas, except around 90 over the southern interior and Gulf Coast metro areas.
Lows each night will be in the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s possible along Atlantic Coast metro areas.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Generally VFR through the period though haze/smoke could lead to bouts of sub-VFR. Northeasterly to easterly wind flow will persist.
These winds could gust between 20 and 25 kts especially during the afternoon hours. Short-fused AMDs may become necessary if IFR smoke/haze/fog develops, particularly overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Breezy ENE/NE winds will continue over the Atlantic and Gulf seas will decrease to moderate conditions on Wednesday. There will also be a 2-4 feet swell affecting the Atlantic waters of South Florida through tonight before slowly decreasing to 2 feet or less on Wednesday.

Additionally, there could be some showers and a few thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters through the end of this week. Smoke from distant Canadian wildfires could at times reduce visibility over the local waters.

BEACHES
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

The period of enhanced astronomical tides continues across coastal southern Florida. Along the Atlantic Coast of South Florida, minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible through Wednesday during periods of high tide due to increased water levels and onshore flow.

The onshore flow and northeast swells will bring a high risk for rip currents along the entire Atlantic Coast through Thursday.
High surf will also be possible along the Palm Beach County beaches through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 75 88 76 88 / 10 20 20 20 West Kendall 72 89 73 90 / 10 20 10 20 Opa-Locka 75 88 76 89 / 10 20 20 20 Homestead 75 88 76 88 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 76 87 76 88 / 10 20 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 76 88 76 88 / 10 20 20 20 Pembroke Pines 75 88 76 88 / 10 20 20 20 West Palm Beach 75 87 75 88 / 30 30 20 20 Boca Raton 75 88 76 89 / 20 30 20 20 Naples 74 91 74 92 / 0 20 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.

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San Marino Island
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Tue -- 12:17 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:58 PM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:08 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

San Marino Island, Florida, Tide feet

Miami Harbor Entrance
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Tue -- 12:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:04 AM EDT     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:26 AM EDT     2.26 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:53 PM EDT     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:33 PM EDT     1.79 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current, knots

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