Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tamiami, FL

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Stout deep-layer ridging and anhydrous weather will prevail across South Florida through the weekend and into much of the upcoming work week. The atmospheric column will remain quite dry during this period as dry air rotates anticyclonically around the surface ridge axis situated across the western Atlantic waters. NASA's/GMAO Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness model even hints at the periphery of a saharan dust plume arriving across South Florida during the early to middle portion of next week. However, the main implication of stout ridging directly overhead will be very light mid to upper level flow aloft. The lack of synoptic forcing will default prevailing weather to mesoscale processes such as the diurnal sea-breeze circulations each afternoon. Given the lack of cloud cover and subsidence aloft, temperatures will be on the toasty side with values several degrees above average across the area. Across inland locales, afternoon temperatures will peak into the mid to upper 90s each with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal locations.
The foci of hottest afternoon temperatures may pivot during the work week, switching from southwest florida to southeastern florida as surface flow veers ahead of a weak boundary during the mid to late week period. There won't be much respite overnight as temperatures along the coast will still remain on the warmer side with lows in the middle to upper 70s along the east coast of South Florida.

With a lack of cloud cover and surface humidity, apparent temperatures (feels-like temperatures) will reach 100-105 degrees each afternoon. While just below lower bounds of heat advisory thresholds, prolonged exposure outdoors could impact vulnerable individuals. Sheltered areas exposed to these temperatures without climate control (parked cars) could become deadly for children and pets. Always look before you lock!

By mid week, a mid-level trough propagating across the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes region will drag an attendant surface low and boundary eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. This boundary is then forecast to arrive across our region, bringing a deeper pool of low-level boundary moisture. This extra moisture could provide enough instability to spark up higher rain chances during this period. However, as discussed in the previous area forecast discussion, uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of this boundary as well as if any upper level synoptic support (current models show the base of the "parent" mid-level trough remaining well to the north) will be in tandem with this feature.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Light SE winds 5-10 kts this afternoon with a westerly gulf breeze at APF. Light and variable winds late tonight and overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Benign marine conditions persist through the upcoming weekend, with light winds and seas 2 ft or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 77 90 76 90 / 0 10 0 10 West Kendall 73 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 75 93 75 92 / 0 10 0 10 Homestead 76 90 75 90 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 76 89 76 88 / 0 10 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 75 90 75 89 / 0 10 0 10 Pembroke Pines 77 95 78 94 / 0 10 0 10 West Palm Beach 74 92 74 91 / 0 10 0 10 Boca Raton 74 92 75 92 / 0 10 0 10 Naples 74 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.