Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
El Portal, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:32PM Thursday December 12, 2019 9:30 AM EST (14:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:09PMMoonset 7:15AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 900 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Along the coast, seas 2 to 3 feet. In the gulf stream, seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet in the gulf stream. Period 9 seconds. North northeast swell around 3 feet after midnight. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers through the night.
Friday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Period 9 seconds. North northeast swell around 3 feet in the morning. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Friday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to south southwest 5 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Saturday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers in the morning.
Saturday night..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to north northwest 10 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday night and Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 900 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis.. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms possible with a stalling cold front boundary across the area. Increasing northeast winds and a northerly swell over the atlantic will bring deteriorating conditions today across the atlantic waters. The swell will cause wave heights to increase to between 6 and 9 feet, with the highest seas in the gulf stream. Conditions will begin subsiding early Friday, followed by benign marine conditions during the weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..Increasing waves and swell through tonight. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 12, 2019 at 1200 utc... 13 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 19 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 18 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 16 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Portal, FL
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location: 25.83, -80.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 121129 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 629 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Aviation. Morning low cigs at APF and Atlantic showers around the east coast terminals could bring sub-VFR conditions to the terminals this morning. Convective activity could continue through most of the day, with the potential for bouts of sub-VFR conditions at terminals directly impacted. Confidence is still not high enough for TS in this issuance, but short-fused amendments may be necessary if they were to develop. Highest TS chances are inland this afternoon.

Prev Discussion. /issued 340 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019/

Short Term (Today Through Friday Night) . Radar, satellite and sfc analyses data suggests a frontal boundary slowly pushing southward and across the area during the early morning hours. Associated showers with embedded thunderstorms have been affecting much of the Miami metro areas, producing mainly localized heavy rain at times.

The enhanced low-level moisture, reflected in the increased PWAT of nearly 2 inches on MFL 00z sounding, and the influence of the lingering boundary will support additional showers and a few storms today. Best chances for rain and storms will reside over Palm Beach county and the Lake Okechobee areas as models depict the aforementioned boundary begin to slowly migrate northward today while transitioning into a warm front.

U/A Sounding and model sounding still depict a solid layer of dry air aloft, which should continue to hamper vertical TCu development, thus, will keep mention of thunder in the grids to a minimum attm and wait for upcoming guidance before going any higher. Also, patchy fog will be possible until sunrise across most of the interior areas and the Gulf coast as the low levels remain saturated. However, with a lack of better radiational cooling due to persisting cloud cover, any fog that develops should remain patchy and quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise.

Model solutions show fair agreement in continuing to lift the remnants of the front back to our north, while a low pressure system deepens over the north Gulf area. With this synoptic scenario, SoFlo remains under generally moist E/SE flow, with at least scattered showers through Friday night. With the absence of a clear lifting mechanism for deep convection to develop, thunderstorm activity is not a concern for Friday, except over the Atlantic coastal waters.

With the dominant warm and moist airmass in place, along with persistent extended periods of cloud cover, expect temperatures to remain warm with afternoon highs in the low-mid 80s and morning lows in the 60s.

Long Term (Saturday Through Wednesday Night) . A cold front will push through the area during the day Saturday as the surface low pressure surges quickly northeastward up the Eastern Seaboard. Some showers will be possible with this front, with the better chances over the waters and across the Lake region. Thunderstorms are not expected with this front at this time since there's not a ton of upper-level support, and instability should be low given the time of day. However, a few thunderstorms could be possible if the timing of the front ends up being later and shifts the activity into the afternoon hours.

Only slightly drier and cooler conditions are expected in the wake of the front due to the origin of the system being over the western Gulf. This small respite from the heat and humidity will be short-lived, as winds become easterly again by Sunday night as surface high pressure over the Southeast CONUS pushes quickly eastward over the Atlantic in response to a deepening surface low over the Plains. Dry conditions are expected across the area Sunday and Monday, with moisture gradually rebounding through early next week. Some showers will be possible starting Monday night across the Atlantic waters and East Coast with breezy E to SE flow.

Rain chances begin to increase on Tuesday with increasing moisture as a cold front pushes into the state. This cold front is forecast to push through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with a band of showers and possibly thunderstorms along it. While both the ECMWF and GFS both have similar timing of the front at the moment, they have very different mid to upper-level support and therefore different strengths of the front and the convection along it. The GFS shows a weaker front with the upper- level support largely missing as the main longwave trough ejecting off to the northeast. The ECMWF has the main longwave trough in roughly the same position as the GFS, but in this solution there is a pretty substantial shortwave trough rotating across in the wake of the main trough. This extra push of mid to upper-level support causes the front to be stronger with more robust convection along it. A stronger front would also produce stronger northerly winds in the wake of the front and therefore stronger cold air advection into the area. If the weaker solution becomes more likely, the timing of the front could also slow down given the lack of mid to upper level support. Forecast generally straddles the guidance at the moment, with forecast low temperatures in the wake of the front Wednesday night ranging from the upper 40s west of the lake to near 60 right along the East Coast.

Marine . Hazardous boating conditions will continue to develop today over the coastal waters, with the Atlantic likely requiring a Small Craft Advisory for at least the waters off Palm Beach county with the arrival of a north swell, along with winds to around 20 knots. These conditions are expected to peak tonight, then begin to subside on Friday as the swells decrease and the winds veer to the SE and weaken. Generally benign weather is expected for the weekend.

Beach Forecast . An increasing northerly swell will bring increased rip current risk and possibly rough surf to the Atlantic beaches on through tonight, especially for Palm Beach County. This swell will begin to subside on Friday, but at least moderate rip current risk will probably linger then.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 79 68 80 66 / 30 30 60 30 Fort Lauderdale 79 71 80 69 / 30 40 50 30 Miami 81 70 81 68 / 20 20 40 30 Naples 82 65 80 67 / 30 10 10 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

AM . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ651-671.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ650-670.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GMZ676.

Aviation . 02/RAG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 7 mi66 min NNE 8 G 12 72°F 78°F1022.2 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 17 mi30 min E 14 G 15 78°F 78°F1022.3 hPa (+1.3)
PEGF1 18 mi66 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 74°F 1022.5 hPa
MDKF1 39 mi90 min 79°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 42 mi90 min 81°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 43 mi90 min 78°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 44 mi150 min 77°F
THRF1 44 mi150 min 76°F
JBYF1 46 mi90 min 77°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 46 mi150 min 78°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 47 mi150 min 77°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 48 mi150 min 77°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 48 mi90 min 75°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 49 mi90 min 74°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 49 mi90 min 72°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 49 mi90 min 78°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL5 mi37 minE 95.00 miRain Fog/Mist73°F69°F87%1022.8 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL7 mi37 minSE 310.00 miLight Rain73°F71°F94%1023 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL12 mi37 minN 09.00 miLight Rain74°F71°F91%1023.1 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL17 mi37 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F73°F97%1022.2 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL18 mi37 minNE 92.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist72°F71°F97%1022.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMIA

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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CalmNE4E3CalmN5N3N5E11NE6CalmN3N3N5N33N5NE5E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Miami, 79th St. Causeway, Florida
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Miami
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 03:54 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:49 AM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:49 PM EST     2.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.80.40-0.10.10.61.31.92.32.42.31.91.40.90.50.30.30.71.21.72.12.22.1

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:02 AM EST     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 03:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:09 AM EST     2.25 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:57 PM EST     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:54 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 PM EST     1.85 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.40.81.92.22.21.80.9-0.2-1-1.3-1.4-1.3-0.90.11.31.81.81.50.8-0.3-1.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.