Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:59PM Friday January 24, 2020 1:01 PM EST (18:01 UTC) Moonrise 7:00AMMoonset 5:52PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 953 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Rest of today..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Tonight..East southeast winds around 5 knots becoming north northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters smooth. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Saturday night..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southwest with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Along the coast, west winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest in the evening. In the gulf stream, west northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Seas less than 2 feet along the coast and 2 to 3 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots late in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 953 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Synopsis..SEas will continue to diminish across the atlantic waters off palm beach county through the day today. A weak cold front will push through the area on Saturday, with northwesterly to northerly winds in its wake. Unsettled weather is expected Sunday night into Monday, bringing the next chance for Thunderstorms to the area.
Gulf stream hazards.. Seas of 5 to 7 feet through this afternoon. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jan 23, 2020 at 1200 utc... 4 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 8 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 9 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 10 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside, FL
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location: 25.84, -79.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 241753 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1253 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

Aviation. Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southeasterly winds today will become light southerly overnight as a cold front approaches the area. This front should push through South Florida tomorrow morning, with winds turning north-northwesterly in its wake. Periods of light rain will continue across the East Coast today, with another round of fog possible across the area tonight ahead of the cold front.

Prev Discussion. /issued 1027 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020/

Update . Previous forecast appears to be on track. Some showers will be possible today along the East Coast and across the interior this afternoon. Fog will be possible overnight tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.

Prev Discussion . /issued 332 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020/

HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES TODAY .

CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK .

Short Term . High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will move further east into the Atlantic waters today, as low pressure over the Tennessee Valley moves northeast towards the Great Lakes. This will allow for a cold front associated with the low to move southeast towards South Florida today. This will allow for the wind flow over South Florida to be east southeast today allowing for some low level moisture to work into the region from the Atlantic waters leading to isolated showers developing over the Atlantic waters working westward into the east coast metro areas before dissipating. Therefore, the slight chance of showers will remain in the forecast for the east coast metro areas and the adjacent coastal waters for today. Highs today will be in the 70s over most areas except around 80 over the western interior areas.

The cold front will continue to move southward tonight and through South Florida late tonight into early Saturday morning. Ahead of the front, the wind flow will become more south/southwest tonight swinging to a westerly direction towards sunrise on Saturday. This will allow for the low level moisture to remain in place leading to some fog development over South Florida late tonight. The best coverage of fog should be over the areas south of Alligator Alley late tonight. Therefore, patchy fog has been added to the forecast for late tonight for most of the region with even areas of fog over the southern interior and southeast metro areas of South Florida. Lows tonight will be 50s over most areas, except lower to mid 60s east coast metro areas.

The cold front will continue to move into the Florida straits on Saturday as high pressure moves quickly eastward through the Southeastern United States. This will lead to northern wind flow along with dry weather over South Florida on Saturday into Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s with lows Saturday night in the 50s, except 40s over the northern interior areas.

Long Term .

Sunday through Friday .

The extended period will be characterized by oscillating periods of drier and wetter conditions, along with mostly seasonable temperatures before slightly warming towards the end of the week.

The first period begins drier and cooler for the of end the weekend, as high pressure briefly builds in behind the cold front mention is the previous section. The pattern then transitions into a more unsettled one for the start of next week as models continue to develop a surface low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in response to an eastward propagating southern stream shortwave. As this system advances towards the Florida peninsula, a remnant boundary draped to our south will begin to lift northward, increasing rain chances across the area on Monday. Therefore, PoPs reflect scattered to numerous coverage across the area. Although guidance remains in fair agreement on timing, there is still plenty of variability regarding the intensity of this system. The latest ECMWF maintains a weaker low, while the GFS, having trended down from yesterdays run, is still the robustious of the two models.

In comparing the forecast soundings at various locations, both models reveal wind profiles that are mostly unidirectional with a hearty low-level jet of approximately 40 knots, 0-3km SRH values to roughly 220 m2/s2 coupled with shear in excess of 30 knots, and DCAPE between 500 to 700 J/kg. Furthermore, forecast derived PWATS range between 1.6 to 1.8 inches, which is close to the max moving average for this time of year in sounding climatology. All of these parameters combined suggests the environment may become supportive for stronger convection that is capable of producing isolated wind gusts and minor localized flooding. Therefore, given the increased potential for inclement weather as the system pushes across South Florida, have introduced isolated thunderstorms to the forecast. As always, the finer details will still need to be monitored as the system evolves.

Thereafter, dry conditions resume through the middle of the week as the system journeys further into the Atlantic. However, models hint at a similar synoptic set up late in the week that could increase rain chances once again. Per usual, coverage and intensity this far out in time remain uncertain, and for that reason, have not strayed from guidance, keeping slight chance of rain in the forecast.

Marine . The winds will be east southeast today 10 to 15 knots before swinging to a south/southwest direction 10 knots or less ahead of a cold front. The winds will then become northerly on Saturday into Sunday around 10 knots before going variable Sunday night into Monday with a weak low moving through the Florida Peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico.

A small to moderate northeast swell over the Atlantic waters will continue to slowly decrease today into this week, but could still be around 2 to 3 feet over the Atlantic waters of Palm Beach County early next week. This will allow for the Palm Beach County Atlantic seas to slowly decrease from around 7 feet this morning to 4 to 6 feet by this afternoon and then down to 2 to 4 feet by late this weekend into early next week. Rest of the Atlantic seas of South Florida will subside from 4 to 6 feet this morning to 2 feet or less by late this weekend into early next week. The Gulf seas should remain at 2 feet or less through early next week. Therefore, the SCA conditions will continue for the Atlantic seas of Palm Beach county through this morning with an SCEC for rest of the Atlantic seas of South Florida.

Beach Forecast . The northeast swells will continue to decrease today over the Atlantic waters. However, low tides are forecast to occur over the east coast taf sites this afternoon which will help to keep the risk of rip currents ongoing long the east coast beaches of South Florida today. Therefore, the High Risk of Rip Currents will continue for the east coast beaches of South Florida through 00Z tonight. The threat of rip currents should then come down a little bit this weekend for Broward and Miami-Dade Counties, but could remain high along the beaches of Palm Beach County due to the small northeast swell. Therefore, the High Risk of Rip Currents will continue for the east coast beaches of South Florida through 00Z tonight and may be needed to be extended later today for the beaches of Palm Beach County.

The tides are also running half of foot above normal along the east coast beaches of South Florida due to the new moon phase and should continue through the weekend. During high tide periods, there could be some minor coastal flooding along the east coast beaches of South Florida especially near inlets and jetties locations.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 61 75 51 72 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 64 76 55 74 / 10 0 0 0 Miami 62 77 56 74 / 10 0 0 0 Naples 60 74 50 72 / 10 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ650- 670.

GM . None.

Aviation . 32/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 17 mi49 min ESE 5.1 G 8 75°F 71°F1017.9 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi61 min SE 9.9 G 11 74°F 76°F1018 hPa (+0.6)
PEGF1 21 mi49 min ESE 8 G 8.9 1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL22 mi68 minSSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F60°F54%1017.9 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL22 mi68 minESE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F62°F62%1017.6 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL22 mi68 minESE 710.00 miOvercast76°F63°F64%1018.1 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL23 mi68 minESE 910.00 miA Few Clouds77°F62°F60%1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOPF

Wind History from OPF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE16
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SE7E8N4NE4N7W5NW6W5CalmNW5NW5CalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmSE6SE7E9
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NW13NW10N12N8N12N9N7N8N7NW7NW7NW8NW6N6N7N8N7NW5CalmE4E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Haulover Pier, North Miami Beach, Florida
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Haulover Pier
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:29 AM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:57 AM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:04 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 05:53 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:01 PM EST     2.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.4-0.4-00.61.322.42.62.41.91.30.60.1-0.10.10.51.11.72.22.32.21.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:44 AM EST     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:36 AM EST     2.20 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:16 PM EST     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 05:53 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:53 PM EST     1.82 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:26 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-1.7-1.10.11.21.82.12.11.50.4-0.3-0.8-1.3-1.6-1.4-0.50.61.31.71.81.40.4-0.4-1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.