Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:15PM Thursday July 16, 2020 10:29 AM EDT (14:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:03AMMoonset 3:45PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 1010 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Rest of today..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday through Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1010 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis..Easterly flow will continue across the atlantic and gulf coastal waters through the end of the week. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible each day over the local waters. Chances of showers and Thunderstorms will increase by the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend as a tropical wave approaches the local waters. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and Thunderstorms.
Gulf stream hazards..Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around any shower or Thunderstorm. Waterspouts are also possible in any shower or Thunderstorm. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jul 16, 2020 at 1200 utc... 7 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 11 nautical miles east of port everglades. 8 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 12 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside, FL
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location: 25.84, -79.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 161201 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 801 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Aviation. Generally VFR with a light easterly wind pattern. Sea breezes are expected to develop with the Gulf breeze pinned to the west. Atlantic convection will spread over the east coast in the mornings and the focus will shift westward with a potential boundary collision around APF in the afternoon. Convection should diminish in the evening as the sea breezes retreat. Overnight convection should remain focused over the area waters.

Prev Discussion. /issued 329 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020/

Short Term (Today through Friday) . An area of high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across South Florida today. Easterly flow will increase as the day progresses. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning over the Atlantic waters as well as portions of the east coast will shift more towards the interior and west coast during the afternoon and evening hours. Shower and thunderstorm activity could become more widespread this afternoon and this evening as the sea breezes collide over the interior and west coast. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. High temperatures will still remain on the warm side as they will rise into the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas to the mid 90s across the interior sections. Triple digit heat indices will occur once again across most of South Florida late this morning into the afternoon hours.

On Friday, the latest GFS and the ECMWF show a mid level disturbance moving eastward from the Bahamas around the southern extent of the ridge of high pressure that is in place. This will help to begin to usher in deep tropical moisture into South Florida as the day progresses. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase across the region especially Friday afternoon and into Friday evening. Easterly flow will still remain in place, however, with the increased amount of moisture coming into the region, the potential for some flooding will exist across the urban and low lying areas due to the high rainfall rates that could occur during this time frame. High temperatures on Friday may be a couple of degrees lower then what they have been over the past several days due to increased cloud cover and increased chances of rain. Highs on Friday are forecasted to range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior sections.

Long Term . Friday night through Wednesday night .

Active weather with a stagnant pattern .

Models are in pretty good agreement that a strong surface high will build over the central Atlantic. This will block any northward movement of any system or moisture moving west across the Atlantic, until it reaches Florida. The models are indicating that tropical moisture will continue to stream in across the region through the weekend, and at least most of next week.

The models do differ as to coverage of showers and thunderstorms over South Florida each day, with the GFS seeming to favor convection mainly over the coastal waters and the adjacent shoreline, while the ECMWF is much wetter and more widespread. Given this, PoPs have been kept at the higher end of the likely range each day, with some nocturnal lulls in activity. However, while there is a forecast lull each night, this does not mean that showers and thunderstorms are not possible. But, with the loss of diurnal heating, the atmosphere will not be as unstable as during the day.

Speaking of instability, given the amount of coverage of rain, and probable cloud cover, thunderstorms have been kept in the chance category through the period, as they may have a harder time being widespread. Much of the challenge will be getting the lift and enough instability to get them to develop. So, if the cloud cover is abundant, thunderstorms will probably be a little less likely. On the other hand, if the day starts out with sun, it could provide enough heating to enhance the instability and also allow for sea breeze development, which would then act as the lifting mechanism. So, there is a decent potential for thunderstorms each day as well, but the coverage and intensity of the storms will be very conditional through next week.

Marine . Easterly flow will continue across the Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters through the end of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day over the local waters. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase by the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend as a tropical wave approaches the local waters. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 91 79 90 78 / 40 20 70 50 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 88 80 / 40 30 70 50 Miami 91 79 90 79 / 40 30 70 60 Naples 94 76 92 76 / 60 30 60 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Aviation . 02/RAG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 17 mi119 min E 4.1 G 7 89°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi89 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 83°F 87°F1018.4 hPa (+1.5)
MDKF1 47 mi89 min 89°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL22 mi36 minNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F73°F74%1018.5 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL22 mi36 minE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F77°F70%1018.1 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL22 mi36 minSE 510.00 miFair84°F71°F65%1018.7 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL23 mi36 minSE 510.00 miFair0°F0°F%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOPF

Wind History from OPF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW43E9E8SE10NW10CalmNW3W9W5CalmN3W10NW8N5N7NE6NE5N3N3N3CalmSE5
1 day agoNW5CalmCalmSW5SE10W13
G32
S11SW6NW43S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4W3
2 days agoSW7SW8W10SW7W9W5SW7SW6SW5SW8SW6S5SW6W5SW6W3SW4SW5W3CalmCalmCalmW4N4

Tide / Current Tables for Haulover Pier, North Miami Beach, Florida
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Haulover Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:19 AM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:36 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:12 PM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.81.21.61.92.121.81.30.80.40.10.10.30.71.31.82.22.32.321.510.6

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:15 AM EDT     1.24 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:05 AM EDT     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:55 PM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:45 PM EDT     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.60.10.91.21.21.20.7-0.1-0.8-1-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.20.81.51.61.61.40.7-0.1-0.6-0.8-0.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.