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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 558 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt near shore...except E ne 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N nw in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 ft near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt nearshore and E ne 5 to 10 kt offshore. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Fri..N ne winds around 5 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 ft. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt nearshore and N 10 to 15 kt offshore. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sat..N nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sat night..N nw winds 5 to 10 kt nearshore and N 10 to 15 kt offshore. Well offshore, gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sun..NEar shore, N nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Well offshore, N ne winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt becoming N with gusts to around 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Mon..Winds N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..N ne winds 5 to 10 kt becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A slight chance of showers through the night.

GMZ600 301 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis..Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds tonight become southeasterly on Thursday then turn northerly Thursday night. A moderate to strong offshore flow develops Friday night as a cold front moves through, then the offshore flow subsides later on Sunday.

FXUS62 KMFL 042309 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 709 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 704 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Passing showers will dissipate over the interior and Gulf coast over the next couple hours, but widely scattered showers will remain possible across the east coast overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low to middle 70s.

After looking at the latest obs, decided to cancel the SCA for the northern Atlantic waters, although small craft should still exercise caution overnight into tomorrow.

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

South Florida remains within an upper high/low dipole, with H500 ridging extending from the western Gulf of Mexico through the KY/TN region, while broad upper low is centered offshore between the FL/GA border. The narrow fetch of N/NE mean tropospheric steering flow that was responsible for advecting plumes of smoke all the way from Canadian latitudes down to the sub-tropical latitudes of South Florida no longer exists, thanks to subtle repositioning of these upper level features. Dry air within the boundary layer will keep shower and thunderstorm chances quite limited today, with only a few low-topped showers (and perhaps a brief thunderstorm) possible along the east coast metropolitan region. 12Z MFL sounding further supports this, with PW of merely 1.12 inches, which is within the bottom 10th percentile of climatological values. Overall, a fairly dry and tranquil day across the region.

By Thursday, aforementioned upper level low will subtlety retrograde westward. NNW/SSE oriented jet streak will allow for enhanced flow aloft, and perhaps a modest swath of upper divergence, however little overall change as far as expected weather near the surface. Perhaps a modest uptick in cloud coverage for some areas, but overall dry conditions prevail.
Showers/thunderstorms that are able to develop in this regime will be rather short-lived in nature, with minimal overall impacts.

Seasonable to seasonably warm maximum temperatures today, with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s (SW FL)
today. Overnight, mild temperatures in the 70s can be expected across the region.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

The mid level low will gradually open up into a trough as it pulls away from the region and moves further east in the Atlantic heading into Friday. Another trough over the Great Lakes region will amplify and progress towards the Eastern Seaboard heading into the upcoming weekend. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will move southeastward into Central Florida on Saturday, and then eventually through South Florida later on Saturday night into Sunday. With dry air in place across the region, this front will not have much moisture to work with as it approaches the area. This will allow for mainly dry conditions to continue for Friday and Saturday, however, there will be just enough of an increase in lower level moisture out ahead of the front to support a slight chance of shower and thunderstorm development mainly over the east coast on Sunday. High temperatures through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend will still remain in the upper 80s to around 90 each day.

Moving into early next week, the uncertainty in the forecast increases as the latest ensemble guidance remains in disagreement in regards to how it handles the frontal boundary during this time frame. Behind the front, high pressure builds back into the Southeast as the front stalls out over the Florida Straits. The discrepancy in the guidance has to do with the front either dissipating and remaining off to the south, or ringing the front back up to the north over the region early next week. If the area of high pressure building in from the north is stronger, it will keep the frontal boundary parked to the south allowing for drier conditions to stay in place. If the high to the north is weaker, the frontal boundary may try to lift back into the region which would increase the moisture and increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms early next week. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms for Monday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Mainly VFR conditions expected overnight into Thursday. Some passing showers are possible along the east coast however chances are too low for any mention at the terminals. NE winds become light and variable overnight and then increase to around 10 kts again on Thursday.

MARINE
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

A moderate to fresh northeasterly wind flow across the local waters today will gradually subside as the rest of the week progresses.
Seas across the northern Atlantic waters will still remain hazardous today as wave heights may reach up to around 5 to 7 feet with the northeasterly swell in place. This northeasterly swell will gradually diminish tonight and through the rest of the week.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will still be possible mainly over the Atlantic waters through Thursday.

BEACHES
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

With the enhanced astronomical tides continuing across South Florida combined with the lingering northeasterly swell in place, minor to moderate coastal flooding will remain possible at times of high tide along the Atlantic Coast today. A high risk of rip currents will also continue along the Atlantic Coast Beaches through Thursday evening due to the increased onshore flow as well as the northeasterly swells.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 76 88 74 90 / 20 30 10 10 West Kendall 73 89 72 91 / 10 30 10 10 Opa-Locka 75 89 74 90 / 20 30 10 10 Homestead 75 88 74 89 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 76 87 74 88 / 20 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 76 88 74 89 / 20 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 75 88 74 90 / 20 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 75 87 74 88 / 30 20 10 10 Boca Raton 76 89 74 90 / 30 20 10 10 Naples 75 92 73 90 / 10 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Everglades City
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Wed -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:04 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:46 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:34 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Everglades City, Barron River, Florida, Tide feet

Indian Key
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Wed -- 03:37 AM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:40 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:06 PM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:39 PM EDT     1.96 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Indian Key, Florida, Tide feet

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