Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Indian Creek, FL

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery indicates that most of South Florida will remain entrenched in deep moisture, allowing for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop each afternoon. Florida finds itself in a corridor of moisture steered by a mid-level low pressure system over Georgia and the Bermuda high over the mid-Atlantic. As a result, an area of scattered convection and broken mid to high level clouds extends along a stationary boundary from north Florida to the Jersey shore. Most of the better forcing for storms will remain off shore along the main trough axis in the western Atlantic and closer to the stationary front over the Carolinas. The synoptic flow will generally remain very weak over South Florida, keeping most thunderstorm activity tied to sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions. At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic will begin to exert greater influence over the peninsula and push westward into the Gulf by the middle of the week. This will allow for winds to begin shifting more southerly to southeasterly. This shift in winds will likely place the higher chances of thunderstorms (65% to 75%) more over interior South Florida for the next couple of afternoons.

Throughout the morning, southwesterly winds had persisted across the region, a little bit longer than guidance had been anticipating. As a result, thunderstorm initiation along the Atlantic sea breeze may begin closer to the metro area than what some CAMs are showing. With surface flow looking to shift more southerly to southeasterly, storms will likely focus first along sea breeze convergence in the southern Everglades as discrete single cells. Activity should then shift northward towards the Lake Okeechobee region along thunderstorm outflows, becoming more conglomerated and multicellular. Weak steering and a moist atmosphere should allow for slow moving and efficient rainfall producing storms. With above average PWATs near 2 inches, any storms that develop over the metro will have the potential to create localized urban flooding impacts for low lying and poor drainage locations. DCAPE looks to be a little less this afternoon, but steep low level lapse rates and plenty of surface based instability should allow for a few strong storms to produce gusty winds of 35 to 45 mph.

By Wednesday morning, the ridge over the Atlantic will continue to strengthen over the region, creating a stronger pressure gradient along the Atlantic coast. Therefore, winds will be a little bit stronger from the east to southeast. This will likely push the Atlantic sea breeze further inland, which is why the highest chances for thunderstorms during the afternoon will focus along interior and Southwest Florida. Once again, storms will be efficient rainfall producers, with locally heavy amounts of 2 to 3 inches. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will also be concerns with any storm.

Most of South Florida will continue to see widespread Moderate HeatRisk, affecting sensitive individuals without proper colling or hydration. High temperatures will be typical for this time of year, in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will climb into the 105 to 110 F range, so we will continue to monitor for any Heat Advisory concerns.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Heading into Thursday, the mid-level western Atlantic ridge continues to build west towards the East Coast, while surface high pressure remains in place over the Florida Peninsula. With deep tropical moisture in place (PWATs around 2.0-2.2 inches) and persistent light easterly flow, diurnal convection will be once again largely focused over the interior and Southwest Florida.
However, ample moisture will still support scattered morning and late afternoon showers along the East Coast. Meanwhile, global and ensemble guidance continues to depict a TUTT feature traversing just north of the Bahamas and approaching the Florida Peninsula Thursday into Friday. By Friday, the overall synoptic picture will hinge on the influence of this disturbance as it tracks along the periphery of the Bermuda high. Guidance remains split on its exact track and degree of influence over South Florida. One global ensemble suite brings the disturbance closer to the peninsula, enhancing upper level support for convection, while another keeps the TUTT further northeast off the Atlantic coast. Regardless of which scenario unfolds, the vast majority of ensemble members cluster around low- end QPF values (0.1 to 0.5 inches), suggesting that widespread heavy accumulation is unlikely outside of any isolated outlier.

Heading into Saturday and Sunday, the mid-level western Atlantic ridge re-establishes its dominance over South Florida, maintaining a prevailing light to moderate southeasterly flow. A drier airmass will filter into the region, with PWATs dropping into the 1.6-1.8 inch range, below climatological norms for this time of year. This drier profile should act to further suppress widespread convective activity. However, localized sea-breeze boundaries interacting with lingering low-level moisture could still trigger isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily concentrated over the interior and Southwest Florida. With the robust ridge remaining entrenched, a warming trend will take hold through the weekend and persist into the beginning of next week.
Highs will climb into the low 90s, just above seasonal norms, while peak heat index values reach 105-110 F. Heat impacts are expected to become an increasing concern, particularly across the East Coast metro areas and Southwest Florida, where Moderate to Major HeatRisk is currently forecast on Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at at most sites through the afternoon. Have included a few TEMPOs and PROB30s for brief periods of MVFR conditions from thunderstorms forming along the sea breeze. A Gulf breeze will shift winds west at KAPF through the afternoon. Activity should diminish after sunset with winds becoming light and variable.

MARINE
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Light to gentle winds across most of the local waters will slowly start to increase tonight into Wednesday as they shift and become east southeasterly. Easterly winds become moderate across most of the local waters during the second half of the week. These winds could become occasionally fresh over the Atlantic waters during this time frame. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually start to increase during the second half of the week as a disturbance approaches from the east.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day.

BEACHES
Issued at 219 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Easterly winds will gradually increase heading into the second half of the week. This will allow for the rip current risk to become high during this time frame across the Atlantic Coast beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 78 89 79 90 / 40 70 40 70 West Kendall 75 90 77 90 / 30 70 40 60 Opa-Locka 78 90 79 91 / 40 70 40 70 Homestead 78 89 78 90 / 30 70 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 78 88 80 89 / 40 70 50 70 N Ft Lauderdale 78 89 80 90 / 40 70 50 70 Pembroke Pines 79 89 80 90 / 40 70 40 70 West Palm Beach 77 90 79 90 / 30 60 30 70 Boca Raton 77 88 79 89 / 40 70 50 70 Naples 77 90 76 91 / 30 90 20 90

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.