Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Villa Pancho, TX

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Key Messages:

- Arctic air cold front Saturday night.

On Thursday, the remains of a coastal trough will fill as a mid level ridge weakens over Texas. The CWA will see mostly clear skies on Thursday night with low temps in the 40s and 50s.
Meanwhile, Arctic air will move out of Canada into the northern High Plains behind an eastward moving Canadian trough and underlying low pressure system. Local temperatures will feel warm, with Friday highs in the 70s and Friday night lows in the 50s and 60s. Even on Saturday high temps will be in the 70s to near 80.

A cold front with air derived from the arctic will arrive on Saturday and we will have a McFarland clone (referring to the classic 1976 paper by M.J. McFarland describing a synoptic setup that produces unusually cold weather for deep South Texas). Once a cold front moves through, the mid-level trough axis from Hudson Bay southwest across the United States with a north-south blocking ridge to the west allows very cold air to plummet south through nothing but barbed wire fencing over the Plains. The resulting "signature" is often present when extreme cold devastates local agriculture, especially when that industry was of major importance.

Temperatures will "free-fall" starting Saturday night creating a winter weather threat that will persists through much of the week. Though initially dry, cold air nosing south into the CWA will dance with warmer and moister marine air to set up a deepening coastal trough. That will enhance rain chances and, when combined with the colder temperatures which are expected to reach a nadir Wednesday and Thursday, will up the chances for pockets of wintry precip.

Used an NBM baseline for the forecast, realizing that there is still a lot of uncertainty. Some of the models (like the NAM)
handle the colder temps better, and those have yet to come into prime range. For now, the ECMWF and the NBM50 seem to be tracking well. A bit concerning is that the lower end NBM probabilities (25 and 10 percent) which might be considered reasonable worst case scenarios, take temps well below freezing for the coldest nights/mornings. For now, however, we are looking at freezing temps (around 32 degrees) for the Ranchlands Monday morning, a light freeze across the northern tier and Starr Counties Tuesday morning, and a light (possible hard) freeze for that same area Wednesday morning along with a light freeze reaching Hidalgo, Willacy, and northern Cameron Counties.

In terms of weather, look for light, patchy fog Thursday and Friday mornings. Other precip threats will occur in the 5 to 7 day range. We can't get around the possibility of freezing drizzle across the Ranchlands and Upper Valley Monday morning (rain elsewhere). Too, the wintry precip chances occur during the overnight hours. Freezing rain will be featured Monday night for the Northwest Ranchlands and Zapata County. The freezing rain threat will shift east to Kenedy and Brooks Counties Tuesday night, with even a slight chance of freezing drizzle for Cameron County early Wednesday. A fresh surge of high pressure will spread over the area late next week and will end the influence of the coastal trough and the associated rain chances.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Conditions at BRO are currently right at IFR but there is the chance that the ceilings could drop to LIFR conditions in the next few hours. This should last until around 16z when cloud decks should stay at IFR throughout the day. HRL is currently at LIFR and is expected to remain so until around 19z, when ceilings will raise to IFR. MFE is currently experiencing IFR conditions and is expected to remain so throughout the day until around 03z when conditions could improve to MVFR. Wind gusts are possible today, particularly at BRO and HRL.

MARINE
Issued at 316 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Today through Tomorrow...A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for the northern nearshore and offshore waters (Port Mansfield up to Baffin Bay) until 6 pm today. Guidance is suggesting that this advisory may need to be extended to all Gulf Waters overnight as wave heights are expected to increase to up to 8 feet tonight. Thursday will slightly improve but still remain dangerous for small craft, with heights between 4 to 7 feet expected. Winds will remain north-northeasterly today and tomorrow, with the highest anticipates (20-25 knots) expected tonight.

Thursday night through Sunday night...Moderate to fresh (offshore zones) winds and moderate to slightly elevated seas will initially prevail, prompting mainly small craft should exercise caution conditions. A Saturday cold front will bring strong north winds and high seas, producing small craft advisory conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 55 51 63 52 / 30 20 0 0 HARLINGEN 53 49 63 48 / 40 10 0 0 MCALLEN 53 51 66 51 / 30 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 53 50 66 48 / 30 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 56 62 58 / 50 30 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 56 52 62 52 / 50 20 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.