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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 1018 Am Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest this afternoon. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots decreasing to around 5 knots after midnight. Light chop on the bay becoming smooth after midnight. Widespread dense fog in the evening, then patchy fog after midnight.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. Widespread fog in the morning.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Light chop on the bay becoming smooth after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds around 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay becoming light chop in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming around 5 knots after midnight. Light chop on the bay becoming smooth after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay becoming light chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 1018 Am Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis..Small craft exercise caution for gulf waters for today. A weak northerly flow develops later today and more so this weekend as limited high pressure filters in behind a weak front. Generally light winds and lowering seas are expected much of the next several days resulting in mostly favorable conditions. A few showers or even an isolated Thunderstorm is possible today with patchy dense fog tonight and Saturday morning.

FXUS64 KBRO 011138 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 538 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Two fronts are noted over Texas with the weakest front noted over the western/northern Ranchlands of Deep South Texas. Pressure gradient has weaken considerably over the western two-thirds of the County Warning Area (CWA) where thickening fog 1/4-1 mile fog and low clouds continue to expand. Winds remain elevated over the eastern coastal counties with hazy light fog of 4- 6 miles. Pressure gradient will continue to weaken as the front nears the coast this morning allowing for increased probability of patchy dense fog for all areas for at least a few hours either side of sunrise.

The weak front meanders over the CWA today and is not expected to push offshore due to a mid-level trough remaining to the west of Texas, deep south-southwest flow aloft and no significant cold air (high pressure) behind the frontal boundary. As the front near Lower RGV and coast later this morning/afternoon winds to turn north while limited shallow moisture convergence, limited lift due to low-level positive vorticity advection and increasing instability may allow for a low chance (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, low clouds are likely to hang around all day with limited drier surface air remaining out west. Temperatures remain mild to slightly above normal today with highs climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tonight with the frontal boundary hanging around, light winds and a strengthening and lowering surface inversion along with plenty of surface moisture, expect the stratus layer to lower towards the surface which might end up as dense fog. NBM is indicating widespread fog late Friday night into sunrise Saturday with a good chance of a Dense Fog Advisory being issued by later shifts. Lows overnight will be mild in the upper 50s West and low to mid 60s East.

Saturday the weak front gets shunted offshore as the mid-level trough gets a eastward kick. Drier air begins to filter into region drying out the mid-layers and working somewhat to the surface.
Models continue to show the stubborn low level cloudiness hanging around, albeit much thiner. Weak northwest flow as well as weak westerly flow above the shallow surface layer may not be enough to mix out the lower clouds. High clouds will continue to stream over South Texas keeping conditions let's say filtered sunshine. No cold air advection with the front so highs remain in the 70s to near 80.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Light northerly winds continue Saturday night and Sunday morning, before shifting easterly then southeasterly later in the day as a high pressure system to the north moves offshore. The wind shift doesn’t look to do much in terms of temperatures, with highs remaining in the mid 70s, however it will allow moisture to increase through Tuesday. An upper level shortwave moving through southern Texas Tuesday into Wednesday will provide additional mid- level moisture as well as some moderate forcing. This could result in increased rain chances Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. NBM PoPs remained near zero through this period, however, GFS and ECMWF guidance both support higher rain chances. The forecast still favors NBM guidance, however small amounts of GFS and ECMWF were mixed in to raise the PoPs to around 25% Tuesday afternoon. Low instability will likely mean any rain that does form would be stratiform rain showers, keeping thunderstorm chances near zero. Winds will again shift more northerly Wednesday as another surface high pressure system approaches, bringing slightly cooler temperatures (low 70s) for Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

IFR due to fog and low clouds cover most of the region this morning with exception to KBRO where MVFR conditions prevail.
Light winds and sufficient moisture to allow for the lower conditions to persist through mid-morning with slight improvement to MVFR ceilings for the afternoon hours. Flying conditions deteriorate steadily after sunset with IFR to LIFR, visibility and ceilings, developing overnight. Light and variable to light southerly winds early today turn light west to northwest later today and tonight.



MARINE
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Today through Saturday...Pressure gradient continues to weaken early this morning as a weak front lies west of the Lower coast.
Seas however remain elevated and look to be slow in subsiding below 7 feet for the outer (20-60 nm) until mid-morning. The front is forecast to remain west of the coast today gradually pushing offshore later tonight and Saturday with winds turning weakly out of the north. Seas will continue to subside below 5 feet and possibly dropping further by sunset as winds remain light. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over the coastal waters today.

Saturday night through Thursday...Favorable marine conditions look to persist through the long term period. High pressure moving over the northern Gulf Sunday will be the dominate factor through the week. Light northerly winds will be shift easterly Monday and remain light through the period. Seas look to drop form 4-5 Sunday down to 1-2 feet by Monday morning, and remain slight through the week, though 3-4 foot seas could return briefly near the end of the period. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the southern coastal Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rain chances return Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning as an upper level trough moves overhead.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 65 77 61 / 20 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 80 62 77 58 / 10 0 10 10 MCALLEN 77 61 78 59 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 59 78 56 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 67 72 65 / 20 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 63 75 60 / 30 0 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ170-175.

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Matamoros
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Fri -- 06:59 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:56 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:32 AM CST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:38 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:36 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:17 PM CST     1.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

Port Isabel
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Fri -- 06:58 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:55 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:42 AM CST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:36 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:35 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:47 PM CST     1.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

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Brownsville, TX,