Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Villa Pancho, TX

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

After a relatively benign start to the new work week, the weather pattern gets increasingly unsettled towards mid week as mid to long range guidance shows a plume of tropical moisture advecting northwards into the Gulf of America from the Carribean. As typical with longer range guidance, the average model error beyond three days or 72 hours is over 150 miles. NAEFS situational awareness ensemble guidance indicates that the PWATs and Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) increase to 2-3 standard deviations above normal for the latter half of the week. Unsurprisingly, CPC 6-10 day precipitation outlook shows a 70-80 percent confidence in above normal precipitation. To be clear, the NHC is not expecting tropical cyclone activity anywhere in the Atlantic basin, including the Gulf of America, in the next 7 days. What this means is that Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) could see increasing chances (50 to 60 percent) of moderate to locally heavy rainfall by the latter half of next week. With increasing rain chances and cloud cover, heat risk concerns are also expected to decrease. In fact, the CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook is suggesting near to even slightly below normal temperatures (33-40 percent confidence) for our region. For reference, normal highs for mid June in Deep South Texas and the RGV are in the mid to upper 90s, except upper 80s to near 90 for SPI.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Same conditions...different day. Atmosphere remains in steady- state through at least Sunday, with weakness aloft not sufficient to produce necessary lift for mentionable rain early Sunday near the coast and by afternoon farther inland
Therefore
what you've seen is what you'll get: late night development of TEMPO MVFR ceilings...perhaps a few hours of prevailing at McAllen. Ceiling height may sneak down toward high IFR at McAllen as we've seen in past persistent overnight southeast flow...but for now have kept the floor just above this as IFR conditions only last moments this morning.

Thereafter, ceilings lift to few-scattered VFR at all terminals, with the usual higher levels farther inland where mixing heights are normally higher (3500 vs. 6000). Southeast winds near 10 knots overnight will pick up to 15 knots and gusty once again by late morning, with sea breeze enhancment moving from east to west with highest sustained/gusts reaching McAllen by 5-7 PM.

MARINE
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected this weekend through early next week with light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas. Mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected over the weekend except for isolated showers (less than 10 percent coverage) over the Gulf waters. Weather pattern becomes increasingly unsettled as we head into middle of next week, with 10- 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday, increasing to 30-50 percent for Wednesday into Friday. As the surface pressure gradient tightens mid to late next week, Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory conditions could potentially be reached.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 94 80 93 / 30 30 30 40 HARLINGEN 79 96 77 95 / 10 30 20 30 MCALLEN 81 100 80 99 / 10 20 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 98 78 97 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 81 88 / 20 30 30 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 79 92 / 20 30 30 40

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.