Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bal Harbour, FL

FXUS62 KMFL 230520 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 120 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

With the base of an expansive mid-level trough gradually pushing off into the western Atlantic waters, favorable dynamics (departing upper level jet, cool 500mb temperatures of -8C to 9C) will still be situated aloft of the region today. These dynamics combined with the envelope of moisture with a decaying boundary and ample instability will result in another round of strong to marginally severe storms across the eastern 2/3rd's of the region between 12 to 8pm today.
Residual dry air aloft and cool 500mb temperatures will once again support the potential of small to marginally severe hail, frequent to excessive lightning, and strong to severe wind gusts possible with the most robust activity during the afternoon and early evening hours. Discrete cores will have the greatest potential of producing a hail threat with the eventual storm evolution into multicellular clusters/lines along boundaries primarily resulting in a wind threat.

Heavy rainfall may also once again result in a localized flooding threat across the east coast metro if a storm remains anchored in place along a boundary. The 00z HRRR LPMM shows the potential of widespread totals of a half an inch to 2 inches across the east coast metro area with the potential of isolated locations seeing 3 to 5+ inches of rainfall. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the 00z HRRR indicates a 60-80% chance of reaching 1 inch of rainfall by tonight across the east coast metro. When raising the threshold of potential rainfall to amounts of 2 inches, probabilities drop to 20-40%. It is worth noting that even when the thresholds of rainfall amounts is raised to 4 inches, there are still a few locations of 10-20% across the east coast metro areas tomorrow. The HRRR LPMM is good at picking up on these type of heavy rainfall threats even if exact spatial accuracy of where the heaviest rainfall will occur cannot be determined ahead of time.

An increase in cloud cover and rain chances combined with an earlier start of shower and thunderstorm activity will keep temperatures slightly cooler across the east coast metro areas today with forecast high temperatures mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s with inland SW Florida locations mainly peaking out in the middle 90s. Temperatures along the immediate gulf coast will remain in the upper 80s with metro areas reaching the low 90s.

The weak frontal boundary will become frontolytic in nature by Saturday with mid-level flow lessening greatly across the region as the axis of the departing mid-level now well offshore into the western Atlantic waters. However the residual moisture associated with the decaying front will remain in place across the region. This will allow for both the Atlantic and Gulf sea-breezes to propagate inland with the greatest chance for afternoon showers and storms across inland locales each afternoon. However a few pop up showers and storms are possible along both sea-breezes during the late morning into early afternoon hours as they slowly push inland over both the Gulf and Atlantic metro areas. 500mb temperatures will continue to warm but still be cool enough to steepen low lapse rates and usher in the potential of an isolated strong storm or two along convergent boundaries. Heavy rainfall, locally gusty winds, and frequent lightning is possible with the most robust convective action. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in large part due to cloud cover during the afternoon hours. Sharp fluctuations and gradients in afternoon temperatures are indeed possible as shower and thunderstorm activity (and resultant outflow boundaries)
will act to knock down temperatures from their diurnal peaks.
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