Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Golden Beach, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

An upper low will move from the western Atlantic over the Peninsula by tonight. Under the diffluent upper flow and with deep layer moisture ahead of it, expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop. Forcing from the surface level will likely be a combination of coastal convergence from the background winds on the western periphery of the building subtropical ridge, outflow from convection over the Bahamas this morning, and a little bit of seabreeze influence. While maybe a little more active than a typical seabreeze type day, the evolution will be similar. Expect east coast showers this morning to spread inland through mid-morning, with more robust storm development by the early afternoon. Storms will spread west and become more numerous through the afternoon.

On Friday, the strong mid-level ridge that developed under the upper-level +PV anomaly will shift overhead. Ensembles continue to show the strength of the ridge at the top end of climatology for this time of year, with accompanying mid-level dry air. The low- level ridging is also quite impressive, with heights in the 90th percentile vs climo. This also means that lower tropospheric temperatures will be well above average and in similar percentile ranges vs climo. And while the mid-level dry air will keep thunderstorm development severely limited, the plentiful low-level moisture from the near surface SE flow will keep dewpoints, RH, and subsequently heat indices quite high. Under the easterly flow regime, the western half of south Florida winds up being the warmest, with highs in the mid 90s and the potential for isolated locations to experience heat indices in excess of 110. Along the east coast, low-to mid 90s will be more likely with scattered locations heat indices exceeding 105.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The strong low/mid-level ridging and drier mid-level air will persist through the weekend and so will the lower rain chances and high temps/heat indices. WPC guidance based on forecast highs and ensemble spread indicates a greater than 50% chance that max heat indices will exceed 110 across the western half of south Florida and exceed 105 across the eastern half each day. By next week, the dry mid-level air will shift west of south Florida and rain chances will start to increase once again to seasonable levels.
With deep layer ridging prevailing, expect the primary forcing mechanism for convection to be the seabreeze. There are some indications that a surface low resultant from Lee Cyclogenesis near the Mid-Atlantic will advect SW across the northern part of Florida early to mid-week. While this most likely won't directly impact south Florida, it could disrupt the easterly flow regime and result in convection across a larger portion of the region rather than mostly across the western half.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Another low-confidence forecast as far as when a shower or storm could impact our east coast terminals. The greatest chance will be from sunrise through mid-afternoon, with the threat shifting inland after that. The probability of storms impacting APF is higher than along the east coast and this is most likely later this afternoon. Occasional gusts as high as 20kts will be possible again this afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Cautionary level winds will be possible over Atlantic waters through the first half of the day today. As the calmer center of the subtropical ridge draws nearer winds will subside below headline levels once again. Showers and thunderstorms remain likely again today but a period of drier conditions is expected beginning tomorrow and lasting into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 90 81 91 80 / 70 10 10 10 West Kendall 90 78 91 77 / 70 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 92 81 93 80 / 70 10 10 10 Homestead 90 81 90 80 / 60 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 90 81 90 80 / 70 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 90 81 90 80 / 70 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 93 83 94 82 / 70 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 90 80 90 79 / 60 10 10 0 Boca Raton 92 80 91 79 / 60 20 10 0 Naples 93 77 94 77 / 80 30 30 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.