LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Models show a prevailing weather pattern over the SE CONUS dominated by a mid level trough/low complex for much of the work week, while ridging further to the north should provide enough blocking to keep the low lingering in place. Some solutions still suggest that the low could acquire tropical characteristics while moving over the western Atlantic waters by mid week. But its expected track should push it further to the NE and away from the region.
Meanwhile, the Atlantic high should remain centered well to the east of the region, which will result in weak pressure gradients over SoFlo for much of the long term.

The overall synoptic scenario will keep a very weak flow at the sfc, becoming light or even calm at times. Flow aloft should remain generally from the SW or W, and keeping modest moisture advection in place. Latest global models show potential for some drier air to filter into the mid levels from the GOMEX early in the week. This may lower PWATs into near normal values, but not enough to bring POPs down below 50 percent. However, enough uncertainty remains in the possible synoptic scenario to expect some revisions to the forecast philosophy. Latest model PWATs remain around the 1.7 to 2.1 inch range. The prevailing weak sfc winds and the generally SW flow aloft will keep a rain pattern favoring SoFlo's interior and eastern metro areas. Deeper convection will again focus along sea breeze and outflow boundaries, mainly in the afternoon hours, with max POPs in the 50-60% range each day.

In terms of temps, afternoon highs are expected to moderate a little and fall back to seasonal normals (upper 80s-low 90s). However, peak heat indices will likely remain in the low triple digits, but should remain just below heat advisory criteria.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Light and variable flow overnight with dry conditions expected.
A few showers and thunderstorms could begin to impact sites during the late morning hours continuing through much of the afternoon. Easterly sites may see a brief window of southwesterly flow before a weak sea breeze turns flow more southeasterly between 18-20Z.

MARINE
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Generally light south to westerly winds will prevail through most of this week as a frontal boundary and associated low pressure remain north of the area. Seas over the Gulf waters will generally be 2 feet or less with seas increasing this afternoon into Monday over the Atlantic waters as northerly swell generated by low pressure off the SE Coast moves in. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and could lead to locally higher winds and seas.

BEACHES
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The threat of rip currents will continue to increase along the east coast beaches of South Florida this afternoon into Monday due to a northeast swell working into these waters from the North. The treat should then decrease for the middle to end of this week, as the northeast swell dissipate.

From this afternoon through the middle of the week, there will be the potential for minor coastal flooding around periods of high tide due to astronomically higher tides associated with this full moon. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through at least Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 78 91 79 90 / 30 60 30 50 West Kendall 77 93 76 90 / 30 60 30 50 Opa-Locka 78 93 78 91 / 30 50 30 50 Homestead 78 91 78 89 / 20 60 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 77 91 78 89 / 30 50 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 78 92 79 91 / 30 40 30 50 Pembroke Pines 78 94 79 92 / 30 50 30 50 West Palm Beach 77 93 77 91 / 10 40 30 40 Boca Raton 77 93 78 91 / 20 40 30 40 Naples 79 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.