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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Rest of tonight..Winds ne winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and around 3 ft well offshore. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Hazy with patchy smoke.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. NEar shore, gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt near shore... Except E ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt well offshore. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thu night..E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N nw in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. NEar shore, seas 0 to 1 ft. Well offshore, seas 1 foot building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sun..N nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.

GMZ600 921 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis..The moderate to strong easterly flow over the gulf waters will decrease through the end of the week. A cold front will cross area waters Friday night, bringing moderate to strong offshore flow this weekend.

FXUS62 KMFL 040624 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 224 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

A developing mid level low in the western Atlantic will meander near the Florida coastline today. This will allow for the dry northwesterly flow aloft to continue across South Florida during this time frame. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure centered off to the north will continue to keep a breezy northeasterly wind flow in place today as the pressure gradient across the region remains rather tight. With this northeasterly flow continuing, smoke from wildfires occurring in eastern Canada will be transported across the Florida Peninsula bringing a hazy sky to the region for another day. While mainly dry conditions will occur over much of the area, there will be just enough lower level moisture in place along the northeasterly breeze to support scattered fast moving shower development mainly over the eastern half of South Florida. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as well. High temperatures today will generally remain in the upper 80s across the east coast metro areas to around 90 across Southwest Florida.

On Thursday, the mid level low will not move very much as it remains over the western Atlantic waters. As the surface high pressure centered off to the north continues to push eastward, the pressure gradient across South Florida will relax which will allow for the northeasterly flow to gradually subside. This could help to reduce the hazy conditions across the region as less smoke will be transported towards South Florida. The northwesterly flow aloft will help to keep mainly dry conditions in place across most of the area, however, with the mid level low offshore, an isolated shower or thunderstorm still cannot e ruled out mainly over the east coast. Any shower or thunderstorm that does develop will be fast moving and rather weak. High temperatures on Thursday will generally remain in the upper 80s to around 90 across most of the region.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

The mid level low will gradually open up into a trough as it pulls away from the region and moves further east in the Atlantic heading into Friday. Another trough over the Great Lakes region will amplify and progress towards the Eastern Seaboard heading into the upcoming weekend. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will move southeastward into Central Florida on Saturday, and then eventually through South Florida later on Saturday night into Sunday. With dry air in place across the region, this front will not have much moisture to work with as it approaches the area. This will allow for mainly dry conditions to continue for Friday and Saturday, however, there will be just enough of an increase in lower level moisture out ahead of the front to support a slight chance of shower and thunderstorm development mainly over the east coast on Sunday. High temperatures through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend will still remain in the upper 80s to around 90 each day.

Moving into early next week, the uncertainty in the forecast increases as the latest ensemble guidance remains in disagreement in regards to how it handles the frontal boundary during this time frame. Behind the front, high pressure builds back into the Southeast as the front stalls out over the Florida Straits. The discrepancy in the guidance has to do with the front either dissipating and remaining off to the south, or ringing the front back up to the north over the region early next week. If the area of high pressure building in from the north is stronger, it will keep the frontal boundary parked to the south allowing for drier conditions to stay in place. If the high to the north is weaker, the frontal boundary may try to lift back into the region which would increase the moisture and increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms early next week. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms for Monday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Generally VFR conditions during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Remnant smoke/haze may bring brief periods of MVFR visibility, with short-fused AMDs being issued as necessary.
Northeasterly to easterly flow persists through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

A moderate to fresh northeasterly wind flow across the local waters today will gradually subside as the rest of the week progresses. Seas across the northern Atlantic waters will still remain hazardous today as wave heights could continue to reach 7 feet with the northeasterly swell in place. This northeasterly swell will gradually diminish tonight and through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will still be possible mainly over the Atlantic waters through Thursday.

BEACHES
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

With the enhanced astronomical tides continuing across South Florida combined with the lingering northeasterly swell in place, minor to moderate coastal flooding will remain possible at times of high tide along the Atlantic Coast today. A high risk of rip currents will also continue along the Atlantic Coast Beaches through Thursday evening due to the increased onshore flow as well as the northeasterly swells.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 88 77 88 75 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 90 74 90 73 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 88 76 89 74 / 20 10 20 10 Homestead 88 75 88 74 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 87 76 88 75 / 20 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 88 76 88 75 / 20 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 88 75 88 74 / 20 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 87 75 88 74 / 30 20 20 10 Boca Raton 88 76 88 75 / 20 20 20 10 Naples 92 74 92 74 / 10 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ168- 172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ650- 670.

GM...None.

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Marco
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Wed -- 03:55 AM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:35 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:14 PM EDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:10 PM EDT     1.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

Coon Key
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Wed -- 03:57 AM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:52 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:26 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:51 PM EDT     1.81 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coon Key, Florida, Tide feet

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