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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 940 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 2 2023
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers late this evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming light chop after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Choppy on the bay. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the evening. Choppy on the bay. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 940 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis..An enhanced pressure gradient will continue courtesy of high pressure over the northern gulf of mexico interacting with low pressure over the southern gulf of mexico. Light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas will persist along the lower texas coast, with small craft exercise caution possibly needed through Thursday across offshore portions of the gulf of mexico waters.

FXUS64 KBRO 022333 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 633 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

The latest radar and satellite imagery depicts ongoing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms generally along and east of US- 281 this afternoon. The more robust activity has remained mainly over Kenedy County, portions of Brooks County, and further north toward Corpus Christi, tied to a weak convergence zone and axis of precipitable water values upwards of 1.9 inches. Localized amounts of 2-4 inches cannot be ruled out across this area through the afternoon hours as cells continue to train along this weak boundary, and a small advisory may be needed later this afternoon.

For the remainder of the Rio Grande Valley, an uptick in coverage is expected through the afternoon hours as destabilization occurs.
Without large scale forcing, expect most activity to remain as showers with a few isolated thunderstorms. Most of the region will be rain-free once again by this evening, with low PoPs mainly along the immediate coast and over the Gulf waters. Otherwise, mild low temperatures are expected once again with lows in the 70s and low 80s.

A similar setup is expected on Tuesday as persistent easterly flow maintains high moisture content over Deep South Texas. Most PoPs will be confined to areas along and east of US-281 through the early afternoon hours before shifting further west through the evening.
Locally higher rainfall amounts can be expected in areas where more robust showers and thunderstorms develop.

As far as impacts along the Lower Texas beaches, there is a Coastal Flood Statement in effect until early Tuesday morning, a moderate risk of rip currents through tonight, and a high risk of rip currents on Tuesday. This is due to the combination of persistent easterly fetch, moderate swells, periods of 7-8 seconds, and influence of the high tide.

Otherwise, slightly above normal temperatures are expected this afternoon and tomorrow with highs ranging from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

The start of the long term forecast on Wednesday will still see a southwesterly flow aloft that will bring a disturbance to aid in the development of some convection of the seabreeze. Most of the convection is expected to be east of I69-C however and will be still be in the range of isolated to scattered.

Moving into Thursday, a cold front is expected to push into the area later on in the day. Model guidance has been slowing the front down to where the front could be passing between Thursday evening or early Friday. There has also been a change in the QPF now showing a higher for the Upper Valley regions now at a quarter of an inch. WPC still does have all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in a slight risk of excessive rainfall at this point. Consistency in model runs is what gives confidence to the forecast, which is something that the models have not been doing here. There does appear to be a good chance for the region to get rain, but this is still a very evolving situation that can change.

Friday also brings with it is own challenges in the forecast as well. WPC currently has Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley at a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Friday. While both models now have an early season coastal trough develop the placement of it differs still. The ECMWF develops a trough that hangs through most of the weekend allowing for a cooler and wetter weekend. In contrast, the GFS moves the trough out by late Saturday into early Sunday. This start a warming trend a bit sooner than what the ECMWF has.

Getting into next week, a mid-level ridge and a surface high are expected to build starting us on drier pattern again. Surface winds are expected to be out of the south for the most part. Helping in bringing in drier and warmer air to the region.

As for temperatures, highs for Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be in the 90s, with a few places in Starr and Zapata close to 100. There is a possibility of a heat spike occurring on Thursday ahead of the cold front, so temperatures may actually be a bit hotter that what is currently forecasted. After the cold front pushes through highs will remain generally in the 80s, but some places could see some upper 70s. While low temperatures could be in the upper 60s to low 70s for Saturday, and then drop to upper 50s low 60s for Sunday and Monday. These temperatures are very much dependent upon what happens with the cold front and the coastal trough that develops after that so these temperatures could still change by a good amount.

Lastly, there is still some concerns about coastal flooding as the pressure gradient on the north and south side of the Gulf of Mexico will remain enhanced for until the front passes through. Along with the higher tides a Coastal Flood Statement or Advisory might be needed through Thursday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF period, with another day of showers and isolated convection expected late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon from east to west.

MARINE
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Tonight through Tuesday night...Expect light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast during the period in response to an enhanced pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico. Although Small Craft Advisory is not likely to be needed, Small Craft Exercise Caution cannot be ruled out, especially for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the period.

Wednesday through Next Monday...Generally light to moderate onshore flow is expected Wednesday through Thursday night ahead of a cold front approaching the Lower Texas Coast. Winds are expected to pick up as the cold front moves through, but will then go back to light to moderate after the front moves through the region. A Small Craft Advisory might be needed during that time period. Due to the strong easterly fetch over the Gulf, wave heights are expected to be in the range of 4 to 6 feet over the Gulf waters so a Small Craft Exercise Caution will be need. There are some periods of 7 foot waves that are possible as well on Saturday for the far Gulf waters that would require Small Craft Advisory.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 95 80 95 / 10 30 20 50 HARLINGEN 75 96 77 95 / 10 40 10 50 MCALLEN 78 98 79 97 / 10 30 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 98 77 99 / 20 20 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 89 82 89 / 30 40 30 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 93 78 93 / 20 30 20 50

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX... until 6 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.

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Port Isabel
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Mon -- 07:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:44 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:51 AM CDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:29 PM CDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:38 PM CDT     Moonrise
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Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

Matamoros
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Mon -- 12:15 AM CST     1.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:02 AM CST     1.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:22 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:44 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:36 AM CST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:15 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:50 PM CST     2.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:40 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

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Brownsville, TX,