Sunrise 7:03 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 1:45 PM   Moonset 2:44 AM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 916 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 17 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop after midnight. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Saturday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers. Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 916 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 17 2024
Synopsis - Generally favorable conditions on the waters off the lower texas coast through the weekend. Could potentially have slightly adverse conditions tomorrow on the laguna in the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be possible this weekend which could lead to localized areas of higher winds and seas.

FXUS64 KBRO 172315 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 615 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The biggest story for the short term forecast period will be the above normal temperatures that will affect Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley. A mid-level ridge will continue to influence the region. While some tiny showers and thunderstorms did get going this morning in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, SPC does have the far western parts of Starr and Zapata in a general thunderstorm outlook. A mid-level short wave will allow for some instability over the Sierra Madre that could allow for some convection to grow there and could perhaps move into the CWA Although the PoPs are barely mentionable and the rest of the environment does not appear to be super favorable for any convection to make it that far. However, cloudy conditions are expected to continue through the short term period. As low level moisture continues to move into the area thanks to the southeasterly flow at the surface. Also due to this moisture flow, fog over the island and coastal areas is also possible tonight. A moderate risk of rip currents is still in play today through tomorrow.

Moving into Thursday, SPC does have the northwestern part of the CWA in a marginal risk, while part of Middle Rio Grande Valley is in a general thunderstorm outlook. However both PoPs and QPF remain very low for going into tomorrow and the mid-level ridge still has some influence over the region that will hinder the development of showers and thunderstorms.

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Key messages:

* Showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday night into Sunday

* Cooler and drier airmass change coming behind a cold front Sunday and Monday

The main weather concern during the long-term forecast period continues to evolve around the risk for showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday as a cold front attempts to sweep through the region.

On the western flank of a sfc high pressure system and ridge axis, southerly winds will help to keep a very warm and humid airmass in place over region Friday through Saturday. Dry and tranquil conditions will also persist with continued influences from the aforementioned sfc high and higher heights.

Attention then shifts to Saturday night into Sunday as deterministic forecast models and ensembles continue to advertise the potential for showers and thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a cold front. With the given dynamics/ingredients in place, should all else hold, there could be the potential for some of these storms to become strong to severe. Will continue to monitor trends in the hours/days ahead.

Behind the cold fropa, a notable cooler and drier airmass change will take form Sunday and Monday. Instead of highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s as we'll see through Saturday, daytime highs are progged to be in the lower 80s (70s near/along the coast). Meanwhile, dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s as opposed to the lower 70s. Overnight low are forecast to be in the 60s Sunday night and Monday night.

Tuesday through Wednesday, the warmth and humidity are expected to return again as a frontal boundary attempts to lift north of the area.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

MVFR conditions will prevail this evening at BRO and HRL while VFR conditions are expected at MFE. Later this evening ceilings will lower across the regions with both BRO and HRL falling to IFR. HRL should hang onto MVFR a bit longer than BRO. MVFR ceilings will move into MFE, most likely after midnight. Both BRO and HRL will see ceilings lift mid to late morning with VFR returning by midday and VFR returning to MFE by midmorning.
Southeastern winds will remain moderate.

MARINE
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Tonight through Thursday Night...While generally favorable conditions are expected through Thursday night with moderate southeasterly winds and waves. Some stronger winds are possible over the Laguna Madre that could require Small Craft Exercise Caution at times.

Friday through Wednesday...Favorable marine conditions are expected to prevail through the long-term period with light and moderate winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 87 74 89 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 71 91 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 75 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 95 73 96 / 20 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 74 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 86 72 86 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Port Isabel
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Wed -- 03:44 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:36 AM CDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 02:44 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:19 PM CDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
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Matamoros
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Wed -- 02:44 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:47 AM CST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:04 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:45 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:01 PM CST     1.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:54 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

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