Wednesday, April1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lely, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:45PM Wednesday April 1, 2020 4:03 AM EDT (08:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:05PMMoonset 1:19AM Illumination 58% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 228 Am Edt Wed Apr 1 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet with occasional to 6 feet offshore. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tonight..NEarshore, north northwest winds 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Winds north northeast after midnight. Offshore, north northwest winds 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet with occasional to 6 feet offshore. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East northeast winds 5 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday night..South southeast winds 10 knots becoming east northeast late in the evening. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night and Sunday..East southeast winds 5 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1114 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 31 2020
Synopsis..A strong west to northwesterly wind flow and building seas continue in the wake of a strong cold front. The strong ofshore flow is expected to slowly diminishing late Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. A light southeast to southerly flow can be expected through the remainder of the week as a surface ridge of high pressure builds over north central and eastern gulf.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lely, FL
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location: 26.09, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 010148 AAB AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 948 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

. Marine Forecast Update .

Marine Update.

Latest data shows that most locations beyond 20nm across the Atlantic will reach SCA criteria later tonight as the front passes. Decided to go ahead and hoist an advisory now. Closer to the beach, winds will be more marginal so kept the Broward/Miami- Dade adjacent and Biscayne Bay zones free of the adv at this time. Gulf looks marginal as of this moment so left them with SCEC as well, but they will be a few knots away from reaching SCA thresholds. Expect winds to begin to subside pretty quickly on Wednesday. Kept the adv going through the afternoon, however, the nearshore zones may improve as early as noon.

Prev Discussion. /issued 800 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

.00z Aviation Update.

Aviation .

VFR conditions may be in jeopardy later tonight as a cold front nears the region. Showers may develop and slide through, however, the coverage will not warrant anything higher than VCs at this point A gradual shift in winds can be expected. west tonight and veering to a northwesterly direction with time. Clouds clear out quickly Wednesday and winds may gust up to 20kts from time to time.

Prev Discussion . /issued 233 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

Short Term (Through Tomorrow Night). Warm and dry conditions continue today under breezy southwesterly flow. Highs today are forecast to rise into the mid 80s along the Gulf coast to near 90 across the interior and East Coast, which could be near-record heat for the East Coast sites. Thankfully the breezy winds will help provide some relief for the heat.

A cold front will push across South Florida late tonight into early tomorrow morning with some scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two along it. Thunderstorm chance is fairly low since the upper level support remains more to the north and has begun to swing away by the time the front reaches South Florida. However, some well-appreciated showers will still be possible with breezy northwesterly winds in its wake. Tomorrow will be cooler and drier with high temperatures ranging from the low 80s around the Lake to the mid 80s across the southern portion of the area. The much drier air in the wake of the front will allow low temperatures tomorrow night to dip into the mid 50s west of the Lake to the mid 60s along the East Coast.

Long Term (Thursday through middle of next week) . High pressure will build into the Southeastern United States from the north late this week before moving eastward into the Western Atlantic waters this weekend. This will allow for a north to northeast wind flow late this week shifting to a easterly wind flow this weekend over South Florida. Dry air will also build back into South Florida late this week into early this weekend leading to dry conditions.

The long range models are splitting in the track of a short wave developing over the northern Gulf of mexico this weekend. The GFS model is taking the short wave eastward across Northern Central Florida late this weekend into early next week, while the ECMWF is taking the short wave northeastward into the Southeastern United States. Depending on the track of the short wave, South Florida could see scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms late this weekend into early next week with the GFS to no rainfall with the ECMWF. Therefore, plan on putting in a slight chance of showers for Sunday afternoon at this time and wait on the long range models to come more in line with each other to up the POPs or remove the POPs.

Early to middle of next week, high pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will build back into South Florida leading to mostly dry conditions. There could still be a few isolated showers along the east coast due to the easterly winds, but the coverage will be few and far between to mention it at this time in the forecast.

Marine.

Generally benign marine conditions are expected today. A cold front is forecast to push across the local waters late tonight into Wednesday morning, with a moderate northeast swell building into the local Atlantic waters late this week. This will allow for the Atlantic seas to build to 4 to 8 feet late this week with the Gulf seas building to 3 to 6 feet on Wednesday before slowly subsiding late this week. The moderate northeast swells will also allow for possible breakers to get to close to 7 feet late Thursday into early Friday. If this trend continues in later forecast, then a SCA will more likely be needed for the Atlantic waters late this week along with a High Surf Advisory for the beaches of Palm Beach County.

Aviation . Generally VFR conditions are expected today with dry weather and breezy southwesterly winds. A cold front will push through late tonight into early Wednesday morning with some showers along it. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, but the chances were too low to include in the taf. Periods of MVFR conditions will be possible with these showers as the front pushes through. Winds become NW in the wake of the front for Wednesday.

Beach Forecast.

Elevated beach conditions are forecast for the Gulf beaches tomorrow as breezy west winds and swell arrive. An elevated risk for rip currents return to the Atlantic coast late in the week as easterly flow returns along with northeast swells.

Fire Weather.

Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast today due to breezy transport winds, dry humidity, and dry fuels. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible again tomorrow with relative humidity approaching critical thresholds in the wake of the front. A mitigating factor for tomorrow could be rainfall along the front and the strength of the 20 foot winds. At this time, it looks like the 20 foot winds will remain below 15 mph over South Florida. Plus, if we get enough rainfall that could moisten the fine fuels enough to mitigate some of that threat.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 89 71 82 64 / 0 30 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 88 73 84 67 / 0 30 10 0 Miami 89 73 86 66 / 0 30 20 0 Naples 84 71 80 60 / 0 50 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ069.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-670-671.

GM . None.

Marine . 28/Frye Aviation . 28/Frye


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 3 mi51 min WSW 18 G 21 80°F 82°F1007.9 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 6 mi78 min WNW 8 77°F 1009 hPa74°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 22 mi69 min WNW 16 G 23 76°F 1008.1 hPa
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 39 mi51 min Calm G 0 77°F 83°F1007.1 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 39 mi63 min 83°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 42 mi63 min 83°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL4 mi70 minSW 15 G 205.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist78°F75°F90%1006.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE3CalmE5NE5E4SE66SE4SW10SW11SW11SW12SW8SW9SW9W6W4SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3SW5SW4
2 days agoE5E5E4E6E6E8SE9SE9S11SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Naples (outer coast), Florida (2)
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Naples (outer coast)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:06 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:40 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:48 PM EDT     1.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:52 PM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.100.40.81.21.51.71.81.81.81.81.71.71.81.92.22.42.42.32.11.81.51

Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida
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Marco
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:02 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:37 AM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:44 PM EDT     1.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:48 PM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.50.91.11.21.31.31.31.31.21.21.31.41.61.81.81.71.61.31

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.