Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lely, FL

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:57PM Friday August 23, 2019 8:19 PM EDT (00:19 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:56PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 350 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of light showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of light showers after midnight.
Sunday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of light showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of light showers through the night.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of light showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 338 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis..A light and predominately onshore wind flow will continue today and tonight, becoming more variable and at times light offshore over the weekend before becoming mostly light to moderate onshore again by early next week. Seas will range between one and two feet outside of scattered late night and early morning shower and Thunderstorm activity.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lely, FL
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location: 26.09, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 232336
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
736 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Aviation
The winds should be light tonight over the TAF sites and then
increase to 5 to 10 knots on Saturday from the south southeast
over most of the TAF sites. The only exception is at kapf TAF site
where it will be northwest on Saturday. Vcsh will continue for the
east coast TAF sites tonight before vcts on Saturday at all of the
east coast TAF sites. Kapf TAF site will remain dry tonight before
vcsh for Saturday.

Prev discussion issued 454 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019
discussion...

tonight through this weekend...

not a whole lot has changed from the previous forecast thinking.

There's still a lot of uncertainty with the tropical disturbance,
whose center is actually just off the southeast florida coast at
the moment. While there are a few bands of showers and
thunderstorms pushing southwestward across the gulf coast and
waters, some subsidence on the immediate west side of the center
of the disturbance has been suppressing shower and thunderstorm
development across the east coast today. This system has become
much better organized over the last 24 hours, with the national
hurricane center now giving it a 70% chance of development over
the next 48 hours and 90% chance over 5 days. Although eventual
development is much more likely, there is still considerable
uncertainty with the track of the system, which in turn will
affect when the disturbance is finally able to develop into a
tropical cyclone. Regardless of development, the potential for
periods of heavy rainfall across south florida remains the primary
threat for this system.

Models are still pretty split regarding the track. GFS still
separates the low-level and mid-level circulations, sending the
low-level portion westward across the peninsula. The ECMWF brings
the center briefly onshore the east coast before emerging back
out over the atlantic as it pushes northward. Several other models
lie somewhere in between. Pretty much all solutions carry at
least some threat for heavy rainfall, but the location of this
potential vary widely based on the different solutions. To account
for this uncertainty, the weather prediction center has placed all
of south florida in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through
tonight. Bands of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the eastern portion of the disturbance over the
atlantic overnight and into Saturday morning. If the center
remains near the east coast, the heaviest rainfall could remain
just offshore. However, if the center tracks further inland, the
east coast could be set up for a couple rounds of heavy rainfall
as the bands move onshore tonight. If this solution comes to
fruition, some flooding of urban areas will be likely as the east
coast metro areas have already received a surplus of rainfall over
the last month.

Where the system tracks over the next 12 to 24 hours will heavily
influence the setup going into daytime Saturday and even into Sunday,
both in regards to expected coverage of showers and thunderstorms
and antecedent conditions from rainfall tonight and early
Saturday. Deep tropical moisture will remain overhead throughout
the weekend, so heavy rainfall will be possible with any showers
and thunderstorms that are able to develop. However, again the
coverage and location of the heaviest rainfall will greatly depend
on what happens over the next 12 to 24 hours. If the wetter
solution becomes more likely, an upgrade to a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall would be likely and even a flood watch could
be considered.

Early next week...

as the tropical disturbance lifts northward out of the vicinity
of south florida, long range model guidance indicates that there
should be sufficient moisture left in its path over the peninsula.

For this reason, some of the stronger storms that form in the
afternoon each day may bring locally heavy rainfall and isolated
street flooding in poor drainage and low lying areas. Winds will
become southerly to southwesterly throughout south florida which
will help focus the majority of convection that develops over the
interior lake okeechobee region as well as palm beach county.

Mid-late next week...

high pressure begins to build back into south florida, allowing
for the return of a more typical summertime pattern. A frontal
boundary is expected to stall out to the north of south florida
which may act to enhance overall storm coverage. During this time,
winds will become light and generally southerly, allowing for the
formation of both atlantic and gulf sea breezes each afternoon.

Convection should be driven by a combination of sea breeze and
thunderstorm boundary interactions as well as daytime heating.

Storm coverage is expected to be greatest over the lake
okeechobee interior region as well as the gulf coast during this
period.

Marine...

generally southeast to south winds are expected across the area
through the weekend. A tropical disturbance currently centered off
the southeast florida coast will bring periods of showers and
thunderstorms to all waters tonight through the next couple of
days. A more typical climatological pattern is expected starting
out next week. Gusty and erratic winds with locally higher seas
are possible in and around any convection.

Aviation...

scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across
the region. These showers will continue throughout the afternoon.

There could be periods of MVFR in and around any shower or
thunderstorm. East southeasterly flow will continue this afternoon
around 10 knots. At kapf, winds will shift around to the west
northwest this afternoon. Scattered showers will continue through
the overnight hours especially across the east coast terminals.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 77 90 77 91 60 70 40 70
fort lauderdale 78 90 79 90 50 50 30 60
miami 77 91 78 90 40 40 30 50
naples 77 89 78 88 10 30 30 40

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 32 mm
marine... 32 mm
aviation... 54 bnb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 3 mi49 min 84°F 88°F1012.6 hPa
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 22 mi85 min NNE 11 G 12 87°F 1013.2 hPa
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 39 mi49 min NNE 7 G 9.9 85°F 88°F1012.5 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 39 mi79 min 89°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 42 mi79 min 89°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL4 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair85°F75°F75%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E5CalmN3--CalmN3N4N4N5N4N6N5NE7NE84NE9N7Calm3
G19
NW3N5E5Calm
1 day agoN3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3CalmNE4CalmN3NE5NE75N7NE10--E6S4NE6E6NE5
2 days agoE6NE3CalmCalmE4NE6E5E3E5E4E3E6E8E6----E7W7W9SW8W7SW8S8NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Naples (outer coast), Florida (2)
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Naples (outer coast)
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Fri -- 12:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:19 AM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 12:55 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:56 PM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.82.12.42.72.92.92.72.421.61.20.90.811.31.722.22.32.22.22.12

Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida
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Marco
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:35 AM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:51 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.31.61.82.12.22.221.81.51.20.90.60.60.711.31.51.71.71.71.61.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.