Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 3:17 AM   Moonset 5:44 PM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 924 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Wednesday - South winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Saturday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - East winds around 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers until early morning, then a chance of showers early in the morning. Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 924 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis - High pressure over the western gulf of mexico will produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the lower texas coast through the period. Small craft exercise caution and small craft advisory are not anticipated through early this weekend. Building seas are expected heading into the weekend as hurricane beryl tracks into the bay of campeche.

FXUS64 KBRO 022306 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Slightly above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas will continue through the short term period as the region remains under the influence of mid/upper level ridging.
Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain elevated humidity through tomorrow night, which will result in humid nights and hot afternoons. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with dew points in the 70s, heat indices will range from 100 to 110 degrees. We likely will not reach Heat Advisory criteria, but a Special Weather Statement may be needed to account for elevate heat indices. If you're spending time outdoors, make sure you are following the necessary precautions against the heat to reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses.
Otherwise, low temperatures will range from the mid 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to low 80s along the immediate coast.

While many of us are preparing for 4th of July holiday activities, now is a great time to review your hurricane season preparedness plans and keep an eye on the forecast track of Hurricane Beryl. Make sure you are relying on trusted sources of information, such as the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations, local/county officials, etc. for the latest updates.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the start of the long term period a broad upper-level ridge looks to be situated over the southern US, with an upper level trough over the Northern Plains. Some model guidance is showing this trough deepening through the end of the week, with the ridge shifting further east. This would allow mid and upper level winds over Texas and the Western Gulf to shift more southeasterly to southerly by this weekend. Recent GFS runs have been fairly consistent with moving the ridge further east, while ECMWF runs are keeping the ridge intact over Texas and the Northern Gulf.

Through at least Friday, this pattern will continue to support light to moderate southeasterly winds at the surface with hot afternoon temperatures and near zero rain chances. Afternoon high temperatures look to remain in the mid 90s to just above 100. Heat indices look to peak around 110 Thursday and Friday afternoons, likely remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria, though Heat Advisories can’t be ruled out.

Moving into the weekend, the primary concern for the forecast will likely be Hurricane Beryl, which is currently a CAT 4 Hurricane in the Central Caribbean. The latest NHC forecast has Beryl weakening over the next few days as the system moves into a region of unfavorable wind shear. The official track then has the system making landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula before reemerging into the Bay of Campeche. At this point, the forecast becomes very uncertain as model guidance begins to diverge on both the track and intensity of the storm. Uncertainty in the position of the ridge mentioned earlier, the shear profile over the Western Gulf, and how the land interaction will weaken the system make it difficult to forecast any potential impacts for Deep South Texas at this time. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few days, painting a better picture of potential impacts for the region. That being said, now would be a great time to make sure you have a plan and are prepared for hurricane season if you haven’t already done so.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all aerodromes through the TAF period. Winds between 10 and 15 kts will continue before decreasing overnight. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will once again increase with southeasterly winds gusting up to 25 kts.

MARINE
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night...Light to moderate south winds and low to moderate seas are expected through the period as surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico persists.

Thursday through next Tuesday...High pressure over the Northern Gulf will likely support light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas through the later half of the week. Going into the weekend, the forecast becomes less certain as Hurricane Beryl likely enters the Gulf. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Beryl weakening over the next couple of days before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and reemerging in the Bay of Campeche as a Tropical Storm. Beyond that, models diverge on both the intensity and track of Beryl, making it difficult to forecast impacts for the Lower Texas Coast. At least some uptick in wave heights and swell period will be likely, but the extent to which they increase will depend on the exact track and intensity. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few days, painting a better picture of potential impacts for the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 94 82 95 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 96 77 97 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 79 98 80 99 / 0 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 97 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 88 83 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 80 93 / 0 10 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:29 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:29 AM CDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:39 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:40 PM CDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

Matamoros
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:30 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:48 AM CST     1.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 04:39 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:26 PM CST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:25 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

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