Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laguna Heights, TX

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

A 588-591 dam subtropical ridge will continue to be the primary driver in our weather pattern through the short term forecast period or through Sunday night. An anomalously strong mid-upper trough digging across the Intermountain West will flatten out the aforementioned ridge slightly as it shifts into the Plains tonight through Sunday night. This will result in daytime high temperatures on Sunday being one to two degrees cooler than previous days.
However, temperatures will remain above average for mid May standards and near record levels (see CLIMATE SECTION for more information).

An enhanced pressure gradient will continue to drive breezy south- southeast winds through Sunday. This will result in continued transport of a very humid/tropical airmass and unseasonably warm temperatures. That said, very little relief is expected as tonight and Sunday night will feature very humid and warm temperatures with dewpoint (Td) values in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. A few lower 80s are possible in some spots, especially along the RGV and Lower Texas Coast.

Daytime high temperatures on Sunday are expected to reach the lower 90s near the coast to the lower 100s far west across Zapata and southwestern Starr County. Heat indices are expected to range between 100-110F across Deep South Texas. Because of this, most of the Deep South Texas will be under a Moderate Risk (level 2 of 4) to Major Risk (level 3 of 4) of heat-related illness on Sunday.

The latest CAM models continue to show some convection developing over the Sierra Madre along a dryline and weak shortwave trough later this afternoon/evening. Forecast models do show this activity of showers and storms moving towards our CWA However, given the strong cap in place (i.e. CIN values of -233 per the latest 12z BRO sounding), these storms should fall apart as they translate east towards our region. That said, dry (rain-free) conditions are expected to persist through tonight.

Finally, a Moderate Risk of rip currents at local beaches remains in place through Sunday night.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

The subtropical ridge will continue to support hot temperatures and rain free conditions early next week. The pattern may begin to break down around mid week as an upper level trough looks to traverse the Central US. This trough will likely drive a dryline over West Texas further east, nearing the western portions of the CWA Tuesday. Additionally, this system looks to drive a could front south, nearing the northern portions of the CWA Wednesday.
With the latest model runs there is increased uncertainty in the southward extent of the cold front, as well as uncertainty on how far east the dryline makes it. The 12z runs of the GFS and ECMWF both have the front stalling to the north of the CWA Wednesday, before retreating to the north later in the week. Cloud cover and rain chances are still likely to increase Wednesday, with PoPs reaching 20-30% over southern portions of the CWA

Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest days next week, with high temperatures in the low triple digits across most of the area both days. Heat indices will likely exceed 111 degrees across large portions of the CWA both days, though lower dewpoints across far western portions of the CWA make keep heat indices closer to the high temperature, though much of this will depend on the location of the dryline. Heat advisories will likely be needed Monday and Tuesday, and an Extreme Heat Warning could be needed for a few counties on Tuesday.

With increased cloud cover and easterly winds, temperatures look to cool off slightly mid-week, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday, though a gradual warming trend is expected to return near the end of the period.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours in the forthcoming TAFs. Winds will diminish later this evening, only to increase to breezy levels on Sunday. Partly to mostly cloudy, rain-free skies are also anticipated.

MARINE
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Tonight through Sunday night...A slightly enhanced pressure gradient will continue to produce moderate winds and seas through the weekend. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are expected on the Laguna Madre and the Gulf waters into Sunday due to elevated winds and/or seas.

Monday through next Saturday...Pressure gradients look to tighten along the Lower Texas Coast Monday as a surface low strengthens over the Central Plains. This will likely result in elevated winds and seas Monday into early Tuesday, possibly requiring Small Craft Advisories or Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines.
Generally favorable conditions look to return by Tuesday afternoon, with light to moderate onshore winds and slight to moderate seas continuing through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 91 79 93 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 94 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 96 80 99 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 99 78 103 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 84 79 86 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 77 91 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.