Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orangetree, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Extremely wet start to the work-week across South FL with some much needed rainfall on its way. A surface and upper low over the deep south US this morning will slowly lift up towards the MS valley later today into tomorrow. Meanwhile, a surface front associated with this system is over the eastern Gulf early this morning and will very slowly crawl eastward over the next couple days likely not completely clearing SE FL until late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Deep moisture ahead of this frontal boundary with PWAT values of 2.0-2.2 inches are expected. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will impact South FL today and tomorrow, with the heaviest rainfall expected this afternoon through late tonight. High rainfall rates and training of storms will create a flooding risk over all of South FL, but specifically concerned for the east coast metro in the typical poor drainage locations. Forecast overall is calling for 3-6 inches of rain through Tuesday, however localized higher amounts in excess of 8 inches is possible. Latest HRRR ensemble localized probability matched mean continues to show the possibility of 10+ inches in 24 hours over portions of the metro.
While not focusing too precisely on the location of these higher amounts in the matched mean, it does present a troubling signal that some locations in South FL will have the potential of realizing these higher extreme amounts. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of South FL from this morning through Tuesday morning.

While the flood risk is the primary threat today, there is also a marginal severe threat today. Forecast soundings show 30-40 kt mid level flow and some slight veering at the lowest levels. If there are any breaks today and we can achieve some heating and destabilization, a few stronger cells are possible with wind gusts approaching severe limits. An isolated tornado also can't be ruled out.

While W/NW sections of the forecast area should clear out on Tuesday, with the frontal boundary lingering for much of the day along SE FL, expected scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue along the coast and the far southern peninsula through much of the day.

Rain and cloud cover will keeps temps cooler today with afternoon highs only reaching the low to mid 80s. Low temps tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Warmer temps are expected on Tuesday especially over inland and SW FL where more clearing will start to occur. High temps on Tuesday will range from the low to mid 80s along the Atlantic coast, to upper 80s over inland and SW FL.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Surface high pressure and mid-level ridging will begin to build over the Florida peninsula on Wednesday, ushering in a prolonged period of dry and hot weather for South Florida. Generally southerly flow will advect an exceptionally dry air mass over the region through the latter half of the week, with PWATs dropping below an inch, well below the 10th percentile for this time of the year. With subsidence helping to limit cloud coverage and any convective development, temperatures will gradually warm up through the extended period. Highs could peak in the lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the mid to upper 90s over the weekend. Heat indices will also climb over the weekend, potentially reaching the triple digits across southwest/interior Florida Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

MVFR conditions will prevail today across the east coast terminals along with numerous showers and storms. As the stronger storms move through with heavier rainfall, there will be periods of IFR and gusty winds. Winds will generally remain SSE and will range between 10 to 15 kts outside of storms. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours before slowly tapering off overnight. At KAPF, while there is a lull in activity this morning, another round of storms will be possible this afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

A moderate to fresh southeasterly flow is expected today before becoming a gentle to moderate south to W/SW (Gulf waters) breeze on Tuesday as a frontal boundary slowly crosses the area. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Conditions improve over the Gulf waters on Tuesday however thunderstorms in the Atlantic waters will continue through at least late Tuesday. Outside of thunderstorms, seas will be 2-3 ft today in the Gulf and 2-4 ft in the Atlantic. Seas subside to 2 ft or less by the end of Tuesday.

BEACHES
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

A moderate SE flow will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches through this evening. Conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday, but may remain elevated at the Palm Beaches.
Collier beaches may also see an elevated risk on Tuesday as onshore flow returns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 83 75 86 71 / 90 80 70 20 West Kendall 85 72 88 68 / 90 80 70 20 Opa-Locka 85 74 88 71 / 90 80 70 20 Homestead 85 74 88 70 / 80 80 70 30 Fort Lauderdale 82 74 85 70 / 90 80 70 30 N Ft Lauderdale 83 73 86 69 / 90 80 70 20 Pembroke Pines 87 76 90 72 / 90 80 70 20 West Palm Beach 82 72 86 69 / 100 80 60 20 Boca Raton 84 72 88 69 / 90 80 70 30 Naples 83 72 85 70 / 90 50 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174.

High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None.
GM...None.