Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sea Ranch Lakes, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The forecast is expected to stay on track as an positively tilted upper level trough remains draped over the Florida peninsula, aiding in the persistent NNE flow SoFlo has seen today. Dry air aloft has kept our PWATs low and SoFlo relatively stable, while low-level onshore flow has pushed a few scattered showers primarily over the eastern metros. Some leftover cloud cover that has drifted over from weak convection over the northern coast of Cuba may be lending itself to keeping SoFlo more stable.
Additionally, weaker onshore flow may also be limiting ascent, particularly for Miami-Dade County, with any pop-up showers and isolated t-storms likely favoring Palm Beach and Broward Counties.

With the next high tide peaking between 7-8:30 pm tonight, the strong onshore flow and expected King Tide cycle this weekend will likely lead to moderate to major coastal flooding along the East Coast this evening. Any coastal scattered showers that do pop up may help increase the risk of flooding, particularly for low-lying, poor drainage areas. Remember to never drive, walk, or wade across flooded roads.

Gusty coastal conditions are expected to persist throughout the afternoon thanks to the gradually tightening pressure gradient.
Coupled with the cloud cover, apparent temperatures should stay in the mid to low 80s across SoFlo before dropping into the lower 70s for the coast and upper 60s for the interior overnight.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

South Florida finds itself at the base of a positively tilted mid-level longwave trough. Water vapor imagery and upper air sounding observations from around the state indicate that deep layer dry air is currently in place across most of Florida, keeping conditions more dry and stable through the region. As the main trough axis swings across the state through tomorrow, unsettled weather will remain across the more unstable Gulf Stream waters.
A few isolated showers may hug the Atlantic coastline during the day, but most activity will remain offshore. Deeper moisture remains further southeast over the Bahamas and closer to a stalled boundary near eastern Cuba, where a complex of thunderstorms is currently ongoing. However, here in South Florida, model soundings seem to indicate that moisture content will actually trend drier on Saturday. Precipitable water values will drop from a near average 1.6 inches, to a bottom tenth percentile of 0.8 to 0.9 inches. Models hint at the drier air reaching the surface this time, with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s through the middle of the day. As a result, PoPs will be very low across most of South Florida, less than 10% for most areas. In addition to the dry air, subsidence aloft should keep any showers from being able to mature or develop. Coastal convergence may be possible, but there is very low confidence for rain amounts to be anything greater than half an inch through tomorrow afternoon.

Forecast confidence for the Saturday night through Sunday period has quite honestly decreased. Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to struggle with a solution for the shortwave feature coming off of the Carolina coast. There is less agreement among guidance as to weather this feature develops into a closed mid-level low as it tracks southward along the Florida coastline, or whether it stays an open wave and join the overall longwave troughing pattern. Solutions also differ as to how fast and how far east and south this feature will move over the next two days.
This has major implications on the amount of rainfall South Florida may get. A deeper, slower, and more westerly tracking system would increase chances of precipitation areawide. However, most model guidance has continued to trend lower with precipitation amounts. WPC QPF ensemble clusters show that 1 to 1.5 inches through Monday would be the highest confidence scenario to play out. Yet, there is one cluster of solutions that shows a scenario of 3 to 4 inches possible (but this is a lower confidence scenario). Overall, better dynamics aloft and increased streams of vorticity across the region will favor greater shower and storm activity. PoPs will climb into the 70% to 80% range over the eastern metro. Coastal convergence may allow for several storms to focus along the coastline for several hours, so a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall exits for minor urban flooding along low lying and poor drainage locations.

Breezy northeasterly winds will continue to strengthen through the weekend for all areas. Breezy winds may combine with high surf and unusually high tides over the weekend. This may result in moderate to potentially major tidal flooding for coastal areas along Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. Remember to never drive, walk, or wade across flooded roads.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

By the time Sunday night rolls around, strong surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states and deepening surface troughing over the northern Caribbean will create a tightening pressure gradient across the Florida coastline. As a result, winds will continue to strengthen into Monday and Tuesday. Sustained winds over the waters will already be howling at 30 mph starting on Sunday, but the strongest overall winds inland look to be moreso on Monday. Some areas will be flirting with Wind Advisory criteria, with gusts of 35 to 40 mph possible. There is pretty high confidence that winds will at least reach 25 mph for many locations, but probabilities for winds greater than 30 mph area only around 30%. Nevertheless, these conditions have the potential to break weak tree branches and blow around loose objects and debris.

Strong winds and high surf will combine with the highest King Tides of the year early next week. This will result in the potential for moderate and major tidal flooding. This tidal flooding may also be exacerbated by coastal showers and rainfall, which could lead to significant water rises along the far eastern metro areas. While the peak tides will be during the beginning of the week, moderate coastal flooding may persist through the end of the week as we come out of this full moon phase.

Deeper moisture, with increased PWATs of around 1.6 to 1.8 inches, will persist over South Florida through at least Tuesday. This will keep the potential of scattered showers and storms moving along the eastern half of South Florida. A few localized stronger storms and coastal convergence may create some minor urban flooding concerns.
However, the threat of rainfall will generally be on the downtrend after Monday as the mid-level troughing pattern finally ejects out into the Atlantic. Ridging from the Gulf and drier air from the north will begin to exert more influence over Florida for the middle to end of the week. This will likely result in decreasing coverage of showers and storms areawide. But with persistent northeast flow continuing, pesky onshore showers from the Gulf Stream will continue to be a nuisance each day through the end of the week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions should persist along with a NNE flow for all TAF sites. Gusty winds ranging around 20 kts will begin to diminish across all terminals overnight into Sunday. Will keep VCSH through this afternoon and into Sunday as SCT SHRA pushed onshore. On Sunday, winds should pick back up, gusting around 20-25 kts for all sites into the early afternoon. Uncertainty regarding the maximum gusts expected Sunday may lead to increases in the future. Gradual onshore moisture transport from the NE winds has led to a tentative VCTS for all eastern sites into Sunday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the middle of next week, with conditions progressively worsening over the latter half of the weekend. Northeasterly winds will increase into the 20 to 25 kt range for both the Atlantic and Gulf waters on on Saturday. Widespread Small Craft Advisory conditions will be common across all waters through Sunday, but stronger winds on Sunday evening and Monday are leading to increased confidence for Gale force gusts along the Atlantic waters. Probabilities of exceeding 30 kt winds climbs to around 40% on Sunday night.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are also expected to develop along the Atlantic for the Sunday through Tuesday period.
Heavy rainfall, lightning, and locally higher seas will be a threat with any storm. Seas are currently forecast to peak around 6-9 feet in the Gulf and 10-14 feet across the Atlantic waters Sunday night into Monday. High seas and breezy conditions will persist through at least the middle of the week, before conditions finally start to relax during the end of the week.

BEACHES
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A high risk of rip currents will persist for all Atlantic beaches through at least the middle of next week. Surf heights will begin to climb today but peak on Sunday and Monday. Dangerous surf heights of 10 to 12 feet may be possible for the northern Palm Beach area through Tuesday. Strong onshore wind flow and high seas may combine with King Tides to increase the threat of coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast. See the hydrology section below for a discussion on the upcoming King Tide cycle as well. There is increasing confidence that most of these beach hazards will need to be extended into the middle of the week.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The combination of elevated coastal water levels due to King Tides, persistent onshore wind flow, and localized pockets of the area that can easily become saturated due to antecedent rainfalls creates a concern for flooding from excessive rainfall Sunday into Monday. Adding in the moderate to major coastal flooding which could materialize due to the king tides along the Atlantic coast, it could be difficult for water to drain from some coastal areas late this weekend into early next week until the window around low tide comes. Held off on a Flood Watch with this forecast cycle as a drier outlook for Saturday still makes the timing a bit premature, but it will have to be considered if the forecast trend continues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 70 84 74 84 / 30 70 70 70 West Kendall 70 85 74 85 / 20 60 60 60 Opa-Locka 71 85 74 85 / 40 70 70 70 Homestead 69 85 73 85 / 20 60 60 70 Fort Lauderdale 71 83 74 83 / 50 90 80 80 N Ft Lauderdale 72 84 75 83 / 50 90 80 80 Pembroke Pines 70 85 73 85 / 40 80 70 80 West Palm Beach 71 82 74 83 / 60 80 80 70 Boca Raton 71 82 74 83 / 60 90 80 80 Naples 68 86 71 86 / 0 20 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ168.

Coastal Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ610.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GMZ656-657-676.