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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Rest of today..Winds E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers late in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Sun..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the morning. Showers likely. Tstms likely.
Sun night..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of tstms in the morning. Showers likely
tstms likely
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the morning. Showers likely. Tstms likely.
Tue night..E ne winds 5 to 10 kt near shore... Except E 5 to 10 kt well offshore. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of tstms late in the evening. Showers likely through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Wed..E ne winds around 5 kt becoming ne in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the morning. Showers likely. Tstms likely.

GMZ600 926 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis..Light, diurnal flow develops through through early next week with offshore flow in the morning and onshore flow in the afternoon and evening. Easterly flow gradually develops over the gulf early next week through mid week.

FXUS62 KMFL 231347 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 947 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 940 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Made some minor tweaks to hourly T/Tds to account for current observational trends, but otherwise previous forecast looks on track. A cool atmospheric profile noted in the 12Z MFL sounding (indicative of the fairly deep trough currently over the SE US)
with most temperature related variables in the 5-10th percentiles for late September. Given this airmass, easterly flow, and quite a bit of mid-high lvl cloudiness would suspect highs will mostly be in the 80s apart from the immediate west coast... of note KMIA hasn't had a high below 90 since July 28th..

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

A resurgence of deeper tropical moisture into the area will continue through the remainder of today as a surface trough (a.k.a. Ophelia's "moisture tail") will gradually lift northwards across the Florida Straits the rest of today into tomorrow. As the parent system Ophelia is steered to the north in conjunction with the mid-level trough, the associated boundary will be lifted northwards into South Florida.
Moisture pooling along the boundary combined with diurnal heating will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along mesoscale boundaries during the afternoon hours today and potentially lasting into a good chunk of the evening as well. It won't be a complete washout but intermittent rounds of scattered showers and storms are certainly possible later today. Heavy rainfall could potentially result in localized flooding concerns especially as rainfall could continue to back-build over vulnerable urban areas. Hazards that will be in play in and around thunderstorm activity include the following: heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s across the majority of the region before rain-cooled downdrafts lower temperatures into the 70s across portions of the area.

The soggy pattern continues into the second half of that weekend as the pesky boundary ("moisture tail") remains entrenched across the region. As the boundary lifts northward, south-south easterly wind flow will prevail across the region further acting to transport deeper low-level moisture into our area. Mesoscale boundaries will once again serve as the primary driving force for convection initiation and propagation with heavy rainfall concerns remaining with us once again on Sunday. High temperatures will trend a tad warmer on Sunday with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s across the region.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

A similar ebb and flow pattern will continue each day through the beginning of next week with a relatively quiet overnight and morning across the area before convection trends upwards during the afternoon hours. From a synoptic standpoint, the mid-level trough will advect north eastward into the North Atlantic with the rebuilding of mid-level ridging occurring across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the western Atlantic during the early week period. Warmer values aloft and a relatively quiet synoptic pattern will once again allow for the primary driver of our weather pattern remaining in the mesoscale domain with the best ascent and vertical motion occurring along boundary collisions.
While parameters don't necessarily point to strong convection, given the ample CAPE in play each afternoon, gusty winds and frequent lightning will remain possible with the most robust thunderstorm activity. Deep tropical moisture will also continue to lead to efficient rainfall rates which could result in localized flooding. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region with overnight temperatures remaining in the 70s across most of the area.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon, with the greatest threat over the southern terminals. Temporary category restrictions and gusty/erratic outflow winds will be possible with these storms. Generally easterly winds around 10kts will prevail outside of storms.

MARINE
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Beginning today northerly swell from Tropical Storm Ophelia will arrive across our northern Atlantic waters. This will result in hazardous conditions across the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach as seas build to 5 to 7 feet this morning. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the northern Atlantic waters (nearshore and offshore Palm Beach) from through 8pm this evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will also be possible through the weekend, and may result in locally hazardous conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 86 76 89 78 / 60 60 70 50 West Kendall 87 74 89 76 / 60 60 70 50 Opa-Locka 87 75 88 77 / 60 60 70 50 Homestead 86 74 88 77 / 60 70 70 50 Fort Lauderdale 86 76 87 77 / 60 60 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 86 76 88 78 / 50 60 70 50 Pembroke Pines 86 74 88 77 / 60 60 70 50 West Palm Beach 87 75 87 77 / 40 60 80 50 Boca Raton 88 76 88 77 / 50 60 70 50 Naples 91 75 90 77 / 50 40 80 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.

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Naples
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Sat -- 12:21 AM EDT     1.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:47 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:50 PM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Sat -- 12:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:34 AM EDT     0.28 knots Min Flood
Sat -- 04:40 AM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:05 PM EDT     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:11 PM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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