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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 400 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..E ne winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft along the coast and 5 to 8 ft, occasionally to 10 ft in the gulf stream. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Fri..E se winds 15 to 20 kt along the coast to E se 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 20 kt in the gulf stream. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Fri night..E se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers through the night.
Sat..Winds E se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas.
Sat night..E se winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas.
Sun..S se winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt becoming W nw after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft along the coast and 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A slight chance of showers.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 400 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..
moderate northeasterly breeze expected across the local waters today. Hazardous seas will continue in the atlantic through early this evening and then subsiding tonight. Winds become more easterly for the end of the week into the first half of the weekend before becoming southerly on Sunday ahead of the next approaching cold front.
gulf stream hazards: seas 5 to 8 feet through late this afternoon.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 07, 2023 at 12 utc...
the approximate location of the gulf stream is currently unavailable.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 071115 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 615 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

An upper level short-wave trough is projected to shift eastward toward the western Atlantic waters, facilitating a gradual increase in geopotential heights across the region. A low-level ridge of high pressure will mirror the eastward movement of this trough, resulting in a subtle wind directional change from north to northeast. This wind shift will induce a slight warming trend, as a relatively milder maritime air mass begins to influence the region. The forecast period is expected to remain predominantly dry, with large-scale atmospheric subsidence and a lack of moisture inhibiting the development of convection. Towards the latter part of Thursday and into Friday morning, a short-wave ridge is projected to follow an eastward path across the Florida peninsula. This movement will prompt a low-level mass response, resulting in a veering of winds to an easterly direction.
Consequently, a warming trend near the surface is anticipated, as a mild maritime air mass progressively infiltrates over South Florida. The absence of significant upward atmospheric forcing and the scarcity of available moisture are expected to curtail precipitation potential, thereby sustaining predominantly dry conditions across the region. Cooler temperatures will continue today, with much of the region experiencing afternoon maximum temperatures ranging from the low to mid 70s today, and mid 70s/lower 80s by Friday. Overnight low temperatures will increase significantly back to the 60s across much of the region late Thursday/early Friday.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

As the high-pressure system advances into the western Atlantic, a gradual shift in wind direction to a southeasterly orientation is anticipated in the early weekend. This shift will facilitate a progressive increase in moisture advection, accompanied by a moderation of temperatures during this period. While the majority of the region is expected to remain dry on Friday and Saturday, sufficient lower-level moisture will be present to support a marginal chance of showers, primarily over the east coast areas each day. Saturdays highs are forecast to reach the lower 80s in most areas.

The meteorological pattern is set to undergo a transition on Sunday, as an intensifying mid-level trough emerges from the Plains and extends into the southeastern United States.
Concurrently, a cold front will advance through the Southeast, extending into Northern and Central Florida as well as the Gulf of Mexico. Recent ensemble guidance is converging on a scenario where the mid-level trough digs further south, coupled with the development of a secondary surface low over the Ohio River Valley, subsequently tracking towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. While specifics remain uncertain, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms for South Florida appears to be increasing ahead of the frontal boundary, particularly into Sunday afternoon and evening. Although the most potent dynamics and instability are currently forecast to stay north of the region, the potential for a few strong thunderstorms cannot be entirely dismissed, given the latest model trends indicating a more pronounced mid-level trough and further southward development of the surface low. However, considerable uncertainty persists regarding the exact trajectory of the surface low, which could significantly influence the potential for strong thunderstorm development. This aspect of the forecast will continue to be closely monitored.

Post frontal passage, the front is expected to move through South Florida Sunday night into early Monday, stalling just south of the region over the Florida Straits. Current guidance suggests the front will remain sufficiently proximate to maintain increased cloud cover and a chance of showers, along with a breezy northeasterly flow. Forecast uncertainty remains elevated for this segment, given its position at the edge of the forecasting period. Mondays high temperatures are anticipated to range from the lower 70s in the Lake region to the upper 70s in the east coast metropolitan areas. With a northeasterly wind shift, Tuesdays temperatures are expected to moderate, with mid-70s west of the Lake and around 80 degrees in the southern regions.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. N-NW winds sustained 10-15kts will veer more northeasterly through the day and will generally decrease into the 5-10kt range overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 223 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Hazardous marine conditions today will gradually subside as winds reduce and turn out of the northeast with time. Despite this decrease in wind intensity, hazardous marine conditions may linger over the Atlantic waters this morning, with wave heights ranging from 5 to 8 feet. Winds will continue to shift from the east by Friday and southeast by the weekend. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out later in the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front.

BEACHES
Issued at 223 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

A high risk for rip currents will be maintained through at least the end of the week. This elevated threat may persist into the weekend as winds retain their onshore component.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 75 67 78 70 / 0 0 10 10 West Kendall 75 62 79 67 / 0 0 10 10 Opa-Locka 75 65 79 70 / 0 0 10 10 Homestead 75 66 79 70 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 74 67 78 70 / 0 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 74 66 78 70 / 0 0 10 10 Pembroke Pines 75 64 79 69 / 0 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 73 64 77 68 / 0 10 10 10 Boca Raton 75 66 79 70 / 0 10 10 10 Naples 75 59 79 64 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.

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Hillsboro Inlet (ocean)
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Thu -- 01:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:42 AM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:50 AM EST     0.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:49 PM EST     2.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:14 PM EST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hillsboro Inlet (ocean), Florida, Tide feet

Deerfield Beach
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Thu -- 01:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:33 AM EST     2.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:53 AM EST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:40 PM EST     2.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:17 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Deerfield Beach, Hillsboro River, Florida, Tide feet

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