Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Naples Park, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The primary features responsible for the local weather through mid- week are a pair of TUTTs moving west through the Gulf and Atlantic.
At the surface, their reflections are/will be a surface ridge over the eastern Gulf and a developing area of low pressure across the far western Atlantic and SE US. The steering flow between these low- level features will generally be out of the NW through Tuesday.

For today, all the global ensemble suites indicate PWAT values climbing into the top 10th percentile of observed climatology for this time of year. As the low pressure system draws nearer, the low- level NW/WNW flow will increase as well and result in increased convergence along the east coast. More deep layer forcing will be present as well as the full-column synoptic ascent increases. As far as the evolution of storms is concerned for Monday, expect convection to spread south through the state where convergence is enhanced along the increasing wind field. Then later in the afternoon, convection will focus along the east coast. Generally speaking, expect 1-2" of rain in areas impacted by thunderstorms, with scattered amounts of 3-5" certainly a possibility. Right now, a reasonable worst case to consider on Monday will be along the east coast metros and could reach 5-7" in an isolated spot or two, signaled by the latest HRRR LPMM and other guidance.

With this potential in mind for several areas to see abundant rainfall in a short period of time, a Flood Watch has been issued for the east coast metro zones and coastal zones along the Atlantic side. Current timing for the watch is from 2-11 PM, but this can be adjusted as the most up to date data comes in.

Heading into the middle of the week, ensembles continue to show an anomalously moist background environment through Wednesday, however, with the surface low pressure moving into the Gulf and weak troughing in the lower troposphere, convergent flow will be reduced on Tuesday. In fact, flow will generally be transitioning to a southerly direction and may focus convection across the interior and Lake regions both Tuesday and Wednesday. With limited convective allowing model data available in the Tues/Wed range, the courser resolution guidance has similar rainfall amounts to Monday, with roughly 1-2" in locations impacted by thunderstorms and isolated to scattered amounts around 3-5". As southerly flow increases on Wednesday, the more progressive nature of storms may knock an inch or so off those amounts. The threat for flooding is naturally reduced as the focus shifts off the metros, but will have to monitor as more guidance comes in and the threat evolves to assess the flood potential if similar areas across the interior are impacted over multiple days.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Thursday will be the transition day to a more typical easterly flow regime that will persist into the weekend. Some influence from the passing upper wave and a TUTT off the Atlantic coast shifting northwards may continue to result in pockets of heavier rain across the west coast on Thursday. Otherwise, the subtropical surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will expand and lead to a more typical summertime flow pattern for South Florida, resulting in higher PoPs each day for the Gulf coast and interior sections when compared to the east coast metro late in the week and into next weekend.

Heat will return to being the main threat by the end of the week and into the weekend, with high temperatures in the low to middle 90s and heat indices climbing well into the 100s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR prevails to start the period, but storms are expected to become increasingly widespread later on with periods of MVFR/IFR or lower CIGs at times. Storms will move generally from north to south beginning around 18z and consolidating along the east coast in the late afternoon/evening. The general flow will be out of the W/WSW but winds will be more variable and gusty with thunderstorm activity.

MARINE
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Light winds and low seas will prevail through mid-week. Winds will then turn solidly southeasterly and may increase to Cautionary levels as the western edge of high pressure becomes established across the western Atlantic. Showers and storms will be numerous through mid-week as well, before returning to more typical summertime coverage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 88 74 85 77 / 90 80 80 50 West Kendall 88 72 85 74 / 90 70 80 50 Opa-Locka 90 74 87 77 / 90 80 80 50 Homestead 88 74 85 77 / 90 80 80 50 Fort Lauderdale 87 74 85 77 / 100 80 80 50 N Ft Lauderdale 87 74 85 78 / 100 80 80 40 Pembroke Pines 90 77 88 79 / 90 80 80 40 West Palm Beach 87 73 86 76 / 100 80 80 40 Boca Raton 89 73 87 76 / 90 80 80 40 Naples 90 74 87 76 / 90 80 90 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.