Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montura, FL

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:54PM Sunday August 25, 2019 12:52 PM EDT (16:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:51AMMoonset 2:51PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 1015 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Rest of today..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming south. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight..South southwest winds 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Slight chance of showers late in the evening.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms through the day.
Monday night..West southwest winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday..West winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West northwest winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Wednesday and Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South southwest winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1015 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis.. A weak area of low pressure will continue moving off to the northeast away from the state early this week, leaving light west-southwest flow across south florida. A small northeasterly swell may arrive for the atlantic waters in the wake of the system mid to late week, bringing seas to 3 to 4 feet. Showers and storms can be expected each day, with the highest coverage moving offshore the atlantic coast in the afternoons.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 24, 2019 at 1200 utc... 6 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 13 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 12 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 11 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montura, FL
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location: 26.4, -81     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 251402
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1002 am edt Sun aug 25 2019

Update
The area of low pressure that was over south florida yesterday has
lifted out to the northeast of florida this morning, remaining
disorganized as it drifts away. It continues to be monitored by nhc
for additional development, with a medium chance in the next 48
hours and a high chance in the next five days.

While this system will no longer be directly impacting us, it leaves
behind a well defined trailing low-mid level trough across central
and south florida. Satellite imagery and radar this morning show two
large scale convergence bands associated with this feature; one
aligned from jupiter-lake okeechobee-naples, and the other from
grand bahama-biscayne bay-cape sable.

Showers and storms are already picking up in coverage along the
aforementioned convergence bands late this morning, and expect
activity to continue to increase as we head into midday and peak
heating. The east coast seabreeze is a little uncertain given the
prevailing SW flow, but feel speeds are generally light enough for a
weak boundary to develop just inland from the coast by early
afternoon. This will lead to a pile up of activity along the east
coast mid to late afternoon, especially across palm beach and
broward.

With a moist tropical atmosphere still in place, and the best rain
chances across areas that saw heavy rainfall yesterday, flooding
remains the main threat.

Prev discussion issued 740 am edt Sun aug 25 2019
aviation...

lingering influence from yesterday's weak low pressure system
keeping prevailing SW flow, though very light. East coast
seabreeze uncertain, but expect at least a S to ssw backing 16z-
18z. Ongoing shra likely to expand after 15z, though kapf may see
vcnty activity to start cycle. Shra tsra shift towards east coast
late afternoon, with activity winding down towards sunset. Light
and variable winds overnight.

Prev discussion... Issued 405 am edt Sun aug 25 2019
discussion...

a weak low pressure system, which has been wandering around the
region for the last couple of days, should begin it journey off to
the northeast, along with a 500mb low. As the system exits the
area, models are indicating some weak ridging at 500mb, and a
fairly neutral sfc pattern over south florida. There is still a
bermuda high sitting well to the east north east, which will help
to shift the surface wind to the southwest behind the system.

However, pwats should continue to run over 2 inches for a couple
more days. This with daytime heating should allow for mainly
afternoon showers and thunderstorms to affect the area. The models
are not showing much in the way of a sea breeze today, at least
not for the atlantic coast. With the SW flow, the eastern half of
the cwa, especially around the lake and in broward and palm beach
counties, look to have the best chances for convection today. With
the are still fairly saturated, the flooding of roadways and low
laying areas may still be subject to flooding. The GFS is
indicating that the 500mb temperatures should be around -6c and
cape should be between 1500 and 2000 j kg. Again, conducive for
diurnal convection today. Monday looks to be very similar to
Sunday, with perhaps a somewhat stronger SW flow.

Tuesday, the pattern begins to change a little, with some drier
air trying to work is way in and a weak high trying to build over
the keys. However, the GFS is showing the drier air may have some
trouble totally covering the area. Even so, pwats may drop to
below 2 inches for much of the area for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Cape values also drop to around 1000 j kg over much of the area,
with the exception of the lake region, which is still around 2000
j kg. Wednesday shows a more consistent CAPE value of around 1600
j kg in the afternoon. Tuesday should see a downward trend of
coverage, which GOES into Wednesday, with only a chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the area. The GFS and ECMWF show the low
is slowly moving away from the area, still sitting off the
carolina coast on Wednesday. There is a possibility that the area
could see a dry slot behind this system. Both models are hinting
at this solution, but with slightly different timing, and
coverage. So confidence is fairly low at this time that this will
occur.

By the latter half of the week, a strong 500mb trough will be
traversing southern canada and the great lakes region. This trough
should pick up the low and quickly move it away from the carolina
coast, and bring a cold front as far south as north florida, maybe
even north central florida by Thursday morning. This, of course
would keep south florida in the warm sector and keep convection in
the forecast for the remainder of the week. This will increase
pops for Thursday.

However, the bermuda high should begin to strengthen and
retrograde back towards the area, pushing the front back to the
north on Friday, and allowing a south southeasterly flow to set
up. This would help to lower the pops a tick along the east coast,
but would increase the for the western lake region. Saturday is
still very questionable. The wind pattern does look to turn more
easterly, which would mean lower pops for the atlantic coast, and
an increase for the gulf coast. However, there is a large amount
of uncertainty with the weather for the weekend as a tropical
system may approach the area. The models are currently showing
that the moisture from dorian may move into the area. It is very
uncertain if this will be in the form of an organized system, or a
simple wave of tropical moisture. It is also possible that the
system misses the area entirely. For this reason, have kept pops
right around 50 percent for the weekend. As the system gets closer
and the models get a better handle on its life cycle, the
forecast certainty should increase.

Marine...

showers and thunderstorms continue to be in the forecast through
the week. The wind is forecast to become southwesterly today. By
Tuesday, the wind should shift more westerly for the middle of the
week. Seas are forecast to run 1 to 3 feet, with some possible
building in the gulf stream off palm beach county mid week due to
a weak swell. Even then, the models are only calling for 4 foot
seas for the middle of the week, before dropping back to the 1 to
3 foot range.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 90 77 91 77 70 30 70 30
fort lauderdale 90 78 90 78 60 30 60 20
miami 91 78 92 78 50 20 50 10
naples 89 79 88 78 40 20 40 20

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 88 alm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 47 mi119 min ENE 1 G 1.9 88°F 1015.3 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 47 mi53 min 87°F 87°F1014.5 hPa (+0.7)
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 49 mi53 min 88°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 49 mi53 min N 1.9 G 4.1 89°F 87°F1014.1 hPa (+0.4)
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 49 mi53 min 89°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL41 mi60 minVar 310.00 miFair92°F77°F62%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRSW

Wind History from RSW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE6CalmCalmSE3NE4N5N7E13E10E4E5E6NE4E4E4E5NE5E4E3NE4E5SE4Calm
1 day agoN7CalmNE5N9N8NE9NE6N5NE6NE3NE6NE5NE5NE3NE3CalmN4N5NE4CalmNW4N5N6N6
2 days agoNE5E4NE8N4E6SE7E10E4NE6NE3CalmCalmCalm--NE3N3N4NE5N3N5N7NE9NE9NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Everglades City, Barron River, Florida
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Everglades City
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Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:44 AM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:36 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:39 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.321.71.3111.31.82.32.72.82.62.42.11.71.20.80.50.30.30.511.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida
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Naples
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Sun -- 01:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:15 AM EDT     1.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:56 AM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:10 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:54 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.81.71.71.92.22.42.62.72.62.42.11.71.20.90.60.40.50.81.21.72.12.42.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.