Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Estero, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 105 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025 The leading edge of the much anticipated cold front is currently pushing across the nature coast...and will move across the remainder of west central and southwest Florida during the overnight and early morning hours. A band of broken showers ahead of the front will move over the Tampa area during the next couple of hours. The showers should gradually dissipate through the overnight hours as they push inland and advance south. There has even been a pocket of fog that has developed ahead of the front over inland areas which has been locally dense. This will mix out as the front/showers move over the region.

Cold Canadian high pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front today and tonight on gusty northwest winds. Skies will become mostly clear by around noon...but some cold air strato-cu will likely develop over the Gulf waters due to the CAA over the warm waters, and scattered clouds may advect locally onshore but dissipate as they move inland
Temperatures will struggle today
and in many instances will hold steady or fall slowly
Highs around 60 north
mid 60s central...and upper 60s to lower 70s south.

High pressure will build over the area tonight with clear skies and very cold north to northwest winds persisting. Record low temperatures possible...which has been a rarity for many locations. The record low for Tampa International airport is 40 degrees for Tuesday the 11th...and the current forecast is for 39.
As there have been abundant high temperature records set at TIA over the past several years, this would mark the first record low temp at TIA since Jan 18, 2018.

A freeze warning is in effect tonight/early Monday from 2 AM to 8 AM for portions of the nature coast...and a cold weather advisory is in effect tonight/early Monday from 2 AM to 9 AM for all of west central and southwest Florida. Temperatures will drop to around 30 to the lower 30s across the nature coast...mid to upper 30s central...and around 40 to the lower 40s south. Temperatures will be a bit warmer along the immediate coast. Gusty north to northwest winds will make it feel even colder with wind chills in the lower to mid 20s north
mid 20s to around 30 central
and the lower to mid 30s south.

The surface high will hold over the region on Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s north, the upper 50s to around 60 central, and the lower 60s south under sunny skies. This equates the daily average temperature to be about 15 to 20 degrees below climatic normals. Another cold night on tap Tuesday night with lows in the lower to mid 30s north... upper 30s to lower 40s central...and the mid 40s south. Caveat will be that winds will be relatively light Tuesday night so wind chill readings are not expected to be much different from the actual temperatures.

Surface high pressure will hold over the region the remainder of the week with high pressure also building aloft. Temperatures will moderate each day returning back to near climatic normals late in the week...with skies mostly sunny during the day and mostly clear at night.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025 Locally dense fog at LAL for the next hour or two ahead of the cold front. Areas of MVFR CIGs around 025 along with scattered showers with MVFR VSBYs will occur ahead of the cold front through early morning. Skies will clear by mid/late morning with strong gusty northwest winds developing in the wake of the front at all terminals through the remainder of the day.

MARINE
Issued at 105 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025 Very hazardous boating conditions developing today as strong northwest winds develop in the wake of a cold front, with SCA's in effect for all of the coastal waters. Winds and seas will gradually subside late Tuesday through Wednesday. Relatively benign conditions expected on the waters for the latter part of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 105 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025 Marginal red flag conditions across Levy county today as winds will be strong and gusty and minimum relative humidity values will approach critical levels. On Tuesday, widespread critical RH's will develop across all of west central and southwest Florida...however, winds will be marginal and gradually decreasing through the afternoon hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 65 39 61 44 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 73 42 62 45 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 67 36 58 42 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 69 40 61 43 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 62 30 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 65 42 60 50 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.