Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Myers Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:38PM Friday December 13, 2019 10:21 PM EST (03:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:11PMMoonset 8:23AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 803 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..West winds around 15 knots then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely early in the morning, then a chance of showers late in the morning.
Saturday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming north around 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 803 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis..A cold front will move through the region tonight into Saturday, with winds becoming southwest and then northwest through the day and wind speeds increasing to exercise caution levels for a time overnight. Winds will diminish starting later Saturday as high pressure builds in behind the front. There remains some potential for sea fog to develop, mainly north of tampa bay, starting tonight into early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Myers Beach, FL
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location: 26.44, -81.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 140055 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 755 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

UPDATE. Water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb analysis maps show a pretty strong jet streak situated over portions of Southern LA, AL and the Florida Panhandle. This is associated with a negatively tilted shortwave trough axis propagating to the ENE towards the FL peninsula. Across much of the state, conditions remain fairly warm and humid. Dewpoints are running in the upper 60s to low 70s in the wake of what has now become a stationary front. The 0Z sounding also shows a weak veering wind profile, indicative of WAA. Combining this WAA with synoptic-scale PVA, this is the perfect environment for large-scale ascent. Indeed this has already been proven to be true with the earlier line of showers that passed through.

However, conditions have stabilized somewhat for the moment, allowing the atmosphere to recover and regroup for round two. What can also be noted in the 0Z sounding is a pretty decent capping inversion around 820mb. This explains why much of the earlier shower activity likely fell apart (in combination with several other factors like SSTs along the shelf). Despite the inversion, the atmosphere has a fairly deep well-mixed layer just above and just below the inversion . suggesting significant positive buoyancy once once this begins to erode.

While some directional shear is noted in the sounding at the moment, and some weak directional shear will continue to exist, what there will be more of tonight is speed shear. RAP soundings from 6Z onward show little directional shear and only around 30kts of speed shear in the first 3km. This does not make for a particularly high threat for tornadoes, but rather for an environment that could support some damaging wind gusts across portions of West Central and SW Florida.

Suffice all that to say, a line of storms is likely to approach the peninsula in the early hours of Saturday morning, bringing the potential for some damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado in the overnight hours to the peninsula. This risk diminishes further to the South as convection moves father away from the most favorable environment. Timing sets up for areas North of Tampa Bay to see the greatest threat between 1AM and 5AM and from Tampa Bay Southward from around 4AM to 11AM. The current forecast remains on track, and no major changes have been made.

AVIATION. Conditions remain VFR ahead of an approaching cold front. A line of storms will likely set up overnight and push towards terminals, leading to brief MVFR/IFR conditions, but timing is still not an absolute certainty. For now, will leave VCTS in and later TAFs will add TEMPO/Prevailing groups as necessary to provide a more accurate representation of timing. Conditions could become temporarily MVFR, but after the passage VFR will prevail. Winds out of the SW generally 10kts or less overnight will turn out of the NW by the afternoon.

MARINE. An approaching cold front will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms overnight into coastal waters with the potential for gusty winds, heavy rain, and possible waterspouts. A potential for sea fog still exists for the Nature Coast, but this will likely be short-lived and patchy in nature. Cautionary statements are in effect for outer waters tonight, but conditions will begin to settle down after the front passes tomorrow.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 78 67 75 55 / 50 70 30 0 FMY 81 68 79 56 / 20 40 60 0 GIF 78 66 76 52 / 30 50 50 0 SRQ 79 67 78 55 / 30 60 50 0 BKV 78 63 74 48 / 60 70 20 0 SPG 77 68 75 57 / 50 70 40 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST Saturday through Saturday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters . None.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER . 97/Flannery UPPER AIR . 74/Wynn DECISION SUPPORT . 27/Shiveley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 5 mi87 min S 12 G 16 74°F 1011 hPa
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 15 mi51 min W 6 G 7 73°F 74°F1011 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 23 mi51 min SSE 6 G 16 74°F 73°F1010 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 30 mi96 min SW 2.9 71°F 1013 hPa71°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL11 mi28 minSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F70°F90%1011.3 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL13 mi28 minNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F69°F94%1011.2 hPa
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL22 mi28 minS 1010.00 miFair75°F71°F88%1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMY

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E6E6E4CalmCalmE3E4CalmCalmE5SE4SE4S9S5SW8S6SW6S4S4S5S6S7SW3
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2 days agoCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E3CalmE3S3SE6W6W5W7W10
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W6NW8NW7E12E4E12NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Matanzas Pass (fixed bridge) Estero Island, Florida
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Matanzas Pass (fixed bridge) Estero Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM EST     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:22 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:30 PM EST     1.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:56 PM EST     1.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.82.31.710.3-0.3-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.10.40.91.31.51.61.61.61.51.61.82.12.52.8

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:44 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:07 AM EST     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:23 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:58 AM EST     1.35 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:52 PM EST     0.06 knots Min Flood
Fri -- 07:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:59 PM EST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.6-1.7-1.6-1.4-0.8-0.10.71.21.41.20.90.70.50.30.10.10.20.50.91.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.