LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Not a lot of changes in latest model solutions regarding the overall synoptic scenario for the long term. A deep trough will dominate the the E CONUS to start the work week, while pushing an associated sfc boundary into the northern half of the Florida peninsula. SoFlo is expected to remain in the warm sector through much of the long term, assuming the boundary doesn't pushes further south and into the area. The prevailing easterly winds will also help in advecting moisture from the W Atlantic, which will then support continuing warm temperatures, showers and thunderstorms daily.

Latest global model solutions keep POPs in the 50-70 percent range, with highest chances during the afternoon hours, and favoring he western half of SoFlo. However, some late morning/early afternoon strong thunderstorms can't be ruled out for the east coast metro areas. Meanwhile, latest model soundings still suggest max PWATs of 2 inches or slightly higher, which could result in localized flooding, especially over locations experiencing multiple showers/storms in a short period of time.

Max temps be near or slightly higher than normals, with afternoon highs in the low 90s. Peak heat indices may hit the 105-108 range, which could require advisories at times.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
SE winds currently around 10 kts will become light and variable as the evening progresses. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the east coast terminals early tomorrow afternoon before gradually shifting towards the interior and west coast as the afternoon progresses. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the SW tomorrow as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will remain in place across most of the local waters through the rest of the weekend and into the early portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less during this time frame while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds and seas could be locally higher in and around shower and thunderstorm activity.

BEACHES
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches through this evening while a moderate risk remains in place across the Broward and Miami Dade County beaches. Rip currents risks could remain elevated along the Atlantic Coast beaches through the rest of the weekend and into the early portion of the week as onshore flow persists.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 80 92 80 91 / 20 20 30 50 West Kendall 77 92 78 92 / 20 20 30 60 Opa-Locka 80 92 80 92 / 20 20 30 50 Homestead 80 91 80 91 / 20 20 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 90 80 90 / 20 20 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 91 80 91 / 30 20 30 60 Pembroke Pines 80 94 80 93 / 20 20 30 50 West Palm Beach 79 92 80 91 / 40 20 30 60 Boca Raton 80 92 80 92 / 30 20 30 50 Naples 77 92 78 92 / 40 50 30 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.