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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Period 8 seconds. N ne swell 3 to 4 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Period 8 seconds. N ne swell 3 ft late in the evening. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Tstms likely in the morning. Showers likely. A chance of tstms.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon and Mon night..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue and Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis..
a gentle to moderate easterly flow will continue today. This wind flow will become more southeasterly by the second half of the weekend into early next week. Wave heights across the atlantic waters will remain hazardous across the northern atlantic waters today as a northeasterly swell from tropical storm ophelia pushes into the region. Thus, a small craft advisory is now in effect through 8pm this evening for the atlantic waters offshore of palm beach county. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day through the weekend into next week.
gulf stream hazards: seas 5 to 7 feet possible through this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 23, 2023 at 12 utc...
34 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 13 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 231347 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 947 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 940 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Made some minor tweaks to hourly T/Tds to account for current observational trends, but otherwise previous forecast looks on track. A cool atmospheric profile noted in the 12Z MFL sounding (indicative of the fairly deep trough currently over the SE US)
with most temperature related variables in the 5-10th percentiles for late September. Given this airmass, easterly flow, and quite a bit of mid-high lvl cloudiness would suspect highs will mostly be in the 80s apart from the immediate west coast... of note KMIA hasn't had a high below 90 since July 28th..

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

A resurgence of deeper tropical moisture into the area will continue through the remainder of today as a surface trough (a.k.a. Ophelia's "moisture tail") will gradually lift northwards across the Florida Straits the rest of today into tomorrow. As the parent system Ophelia is steered to the north in conjunction with the mid-level trough, the associated boundary will be lifted northwards into South Florida.
Moisture pooling along the boundary combined with diurnal heating will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along mesoscale boundaries during the afternoon hours today and potentially lasting into a good chunk of the evening as well. It won't be a complete washout but intermittent rounds of scattered showers and storms are certainly possible later today. Heavy rainfall could potentially result in localized flooding concerns especially as rainfall could continue to back-build over vulnerable urban areas. Hazards that will be in play in and around thunderstorm activity include the following: heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s across the majority of the region before rain-cooled downdrafts lower temperatures into the 70s across portions of the area.

The soggy pattern continues into the second half of that weekend as the pesky boundary ("moisture tail") remains entrenched across the region. As the boundary lifts northward, south-south easterly wind flow will prevail across the region further acting to transport deeper low-level moisture into our area. Mesoscale boundaries will once again serve as the primary driving force for convection initiation and propagation with heavy rainfall concerns remaining with us once again on Sunday. High temperatures will trend a tad warmer on Sunday with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s across the region.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

A similar ebb and flow pattern will continue each day through the beginning of next week with a relatively quiet overnight and morning across the area before convection trends upwards during the afternoon hours. From a synoptic standpoint, the mid-level trough will advect north eastward into the North Atlantic with the rebuilding of mid-level ridging occurring across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the western Atlantic during the early week period. Warmer values aloft and a relatively quiet synoptic pattern will once again allow for the primary driver of our weather pattern remaining in the mesoscale domain with the best ascent and vertical motion occurring along boundary collisions.
While parameters don't necessarily point to strong convection, given the ample CAPE in play each afternoon, gusty winds and frequent lightning will remain possible with the most robust thunderstorm activity. Deep tropical moisture will also continue to lead to efficient rainfall rates which could result in localized flooding. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region with overnight temperatures remaining in the 70s across most of the area.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon, with the greatest threat over the southern terminals. Temporary category restrictions and gusty/erratic outflow winds will be possible with these storms. Generally easterly winds around 10kts will prevail outside of storms.

MARINE
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Beginning today northerly swell from Tropical Storm Ophelia will arrive across our northern Atlantic waters. This will result in hazardous conditions across the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach as seas build to 5 to 7 feet this morning. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the northern Atlantic waters (nearshore and offshore Palm Beach) from through 8pm this evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will also be possible through the weekend, and may result in locally hazardous conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 86 76 89 78 / 60 60 70 50 West Kendall 87 74 89 76 / 60 60 70 50 Opa-Locka 87 75 88 77 / 60 60 70 50 Homestead 86 74 88 77 / 60 70 70 50 Fort Lauderdale 86 76 87 77 / 60 60 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 86 76 88 78 / 50 60 70 50 Pembroke Pines 86 74 88 77 / 60 60 70 50 West Palm Beach 87 75 87 77 / 40 60 80 50 Boca Raton 88 76 88 77 / 50 60 70 50 Naples 91 75 90 77 / 50 40 80 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.

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Boynton Beach
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Sat -- 12:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:48 AM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:02 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:56 PM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boynton Beach, Florida, Tide feet

Delray Beach
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Sat -- 12:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:07 AM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:02 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:15 PM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Delray Beach, ICWW, Florida, Tide feet

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