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GMZ132 Expires:202311281615;;522088 Fzus54 Kbro 280343 Cwfbro
coastal waters forecast for the lower texas coast national weather service brownsville tx 943 pm cst Mon nov 27 2023
lower texas coastal waters from baffin bay to the mouth of the rio grande out 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz130-132-135-281615- laguna madre from the port of brownsville to the arroyo colorado- laguna madre from the arroyo colorado to 5 nm north of port mansfield tx- laguna madre from 5 nm north of port mansfield to baffin bay tx- 943 pm cst Mon nov 27 2023
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming light chop after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop after midnight.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..North winds around 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 943 Pm Cst Mon Nov 27 2023
Synopsis..Moderate winds and seas persist through this evening with high pressure remaining north of the coast tonight. Favorable winds and seas briefly return for Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing southerly flow Thursday with a fresh southerly flow Thursday night. The next cold front, albeit weak, Friday into Saturday.

FXUS64 KBRO 280456 AAB AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1056 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1221 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

The short term period will feature below normal temperatures and overcast skies across all of Deep South Texas, with low precipitation chances (20-30%) across portions of the region tonight.

The latest satellite imagery depicts a blanket of cloud cover across all of Deep South Texas, aided by persistent southwesterly flow transporting moisture from the Pacific Ocean. Overcast skies and cold air advection near the surface have kept temperatures in the mid to low 60s this afternoon. Although most of the day has been rain-free, a weak coastal trough developing late this afternoon and evening will bring some low rain chances (20-30%), mainly across the Lower Rio Grande Valley as low level moisture increases. High res guidance indicates the better rain chances will reside mainly across Cameron County and over the Gulf waters, but some light rain/drizzle cannot be discounted tonight as far east as McAllen and as far north as Raymondville and Port Mansfield. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 40s and low 50s once again.

The effects of the coastal trough will continue into Tuesday, but we should start to see any lingering precipitation come to an end by late Tuesday morning. The exception will be along the immediate coast and over the Gulf waters, where light drizzle may continue. Otherwise, expect another cloudy day across Deep South Texas with high temperatures slightly warmer (but still below normal) in the low to mid 60s and low temperatures falling into the 50s Tuesday night.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1221 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Weak mid-level ridging over Texas ahead of surface high pressure spread across the Southeast will edge east on Wednesday, opening the door for warmer weather and more robust moisture return. A storm system will develop over the southern High Plains Wednesday night ahead of a Southwest United States short wave trough. The Plains pressure falls will support a tighter pressure gradient and thus stiffer southeast to south winds Thursday and Thursday night. Along the lower Texas coast, a warm front will surge north.
Thus, the models have not totally discarded rain chances for the CWA, though expect slight to low end chances of rain will be limited to coastal sections. Wednesday temperatures should check in right about normal. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will continue as the pattern will not support a general clearing.

The short wave trough will sweep across North Texas and Oklahoma on Thursday, with Plains high pressure subsequently dropping south into Central Texas. A surface frontal system will underlie the ejecting upper system, and will curl southwest into the Northwest Gulf on Friday, temporarily overtaking the remnant warm front over the Gulf. Over land, the models are not totally onboard with pushing a cold front farther south through the CWA, but their could be just enough energy to do that on Saturday. Another, deeper Southwest United States trough will move east on Saturday, with a large ridge behind it. The surface air mass will surge southeast from the Pacific Northwest and will definitely push through as a better defined front late Sunday into Monday morning.
The models have been more or less on board with this two front scenario for a couple of days, but the timing has waffled a bit.

Monday will look like a different day. It will start out cooler, but near normal, and a drier pattern will permit the skies to open up a bit more. That means there will be more sun than previously.
That will also encourage a quicker warm-up with high temperatures on Monday rebounding to above normal. In summary, the long term forecast does not hold any big weather makers for this region; just the rather typical train of waves across the U.S., none of which seem to slice deeply enough south to have a large impact.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Ceilings to fluctuate around 3000 feet bouncing between VFR and MVFR the remainder of the night and into Tuesday morning. There is a good probability of ceilings becoming dominate for the late morning and afternoon hours before dropping back down to MVFR levels by or shortly after sunset. North to northeast winds to remain generally light.

MARINE
Issued at 1221 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Now through Tuesday night...Slightly improving conditions are expected as high pressure builds into the region and high seas begin to subside, with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions possible due to elevated seas. However, weak coastal troughing will bring low chances for isolated to scattered showers and/or drizzle over the Gulf waters late this evening through Tuesday morning. Exercise Caution conditions may continue into tomorrow due to moderate northeast winds and occasional elevated seas.

Wednesday night through Saturday night...Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds and building seas will develop from Wednesday night through Thursday night. Winds will shift to moderate north and northeast Friday through Saturday night as pushes of high pressure move south. Small craft should exercise caution to low end small craft advisory conditions will be possible Wednesday night through Friday with slightly better conditions Friday night through Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 56 64 58 72 / 30 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 52 62 53 70 / 20 10 0 20 MCALLEN 51 61 52 65 / 20 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 50 60 51 62 / 10 0 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 65 63 71 / 30 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 57 64 58 72 / 30 10 0 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:56 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:47 AM CST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:43 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:54 PM CST     2.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Padre Island (South), Texas, Tide feet

Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:56 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:32 AM CST     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:43 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:53 PM CST     1.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Padre Island (South), Texas (2), Tide feet

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