Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Mansfield, TX

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Visible satellite imagery and this mornings' RAOB shows opposing flow at the surface and aloft. Moist southerly flow is allowing for pop-up showers and along both outflow and seabreeze boundaries east of I-69C, sheared off from the northerly flow aloft. This is keeping storms sub-severe, however, it does little to encourage storm motion. Slow moving, training showers and storms bringing heavy rainfall (thanks to an anomalously moist atmosphere... 12Z Sounding PWATs of 2.02") leave concern for flooding. Flood Advisories are in place this afternoon for portions of Kenedy, Willacy, and Hidalgo counties, and continue to be monitored.

Showers and thunderstorms should diminish late this afternoon.
Through mid-week, low chances of precipitation will continue bar the chance of seabreeze activity in the afternoons. Ridging aloft transiting into central CONUS will support dry air advection into the mid-layers, limiting moisture depth. Near-normal temperatures exist, but low-level moisture will maintain heat indices in the triple digits just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

As the aforementioned ridge progresses over ECONUS, southerly flow in the midlevels will return deeper tropical moisture and bring anomalously high PWATs (greater than 90th percentile of climatology) to the region. This predominately southerly flow will bring moderate to high (50-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening through Friday. Highest PoPs exist along the coast. Chances of rain decrease to moderate CWA-wide over the weekend. WPC has placed Cameron, eastern Hidalgo, and southern/eastern Willacy counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 3) for excessive rainfall on Thursday and Friday.
Deep moisture content will likely support continued chances of excessive rainfall through the weekend.

Increased rain chances and cloud cover will leave high and low temperatures below average.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of all sites creating temporary IFR/MVFR conditions will persist through the afternoon as pop-up showers and thunderstorms form along a seabreeze and outflow boundary. Conditions within any showers or storms may cause low visibility and gustier conditions. Tonight, primarily VFR conditions prevail with southerly winds.

MARINE
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Moderate southerly flow through midweek will increase seas to around 4 feet, leading to possible necessity of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. Winds subside and remain south-southeasterly, maintaining slight seas for the remainder of the period. There is a moderate to high chance (50-80%) of showers and thunderstorms late this week starting Thursday continuing through the weekend.
Conditions will be degraded within showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 94 80 94 / 10 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 77 97 78 96 / 10 10 0 10 MCALLEN 79 101 79 100 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 100 77 100 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 10 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 93 79 92 / 10 10 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.