Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McGregor, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Through the first half of the week, the surface ridge axis is forecast to hold south of the area across southern Florida and the Straits of Florida, keeping a mainly westerly flow pattern in place.
This pattern will continue to bring in deep moisture, with generally isolated to scattered showers and storms developing each day, with the greatest rain chances pushing east into the interior. Rain chances will increase slightly over parts of the Nature Coast Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak front stalls out over northern Florida, allowing moisture to pool south of the frontal boundary. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal for mid June, with highs in the low to mid 90s.

After the front breaks up, the ridge will start to work back north into the area allowing the flow pattern to become more southerly for Thursday and Friday. This pattern will continue to bring in deep moisture and continue to produce afternoon showers and storms, but will shift the highest rain chances back west closer to the coast with the sea breeze collision. By Saturday, another front will be pushing south towards Florida, shifting the ridge back into south Florida and returning the area to southwesterly flow. As a result, the highest rain chances can once again be expected over the interior as onshore flow quickly limits convection close to the west coast during the early afternoon.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will hold through the morning, although a few stray showers or storms cannot be completely ruled out. Higher rain chances are expected to develop this afternoon, with the greatest storm chances expected over the interior around KLAL, and across southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD.

MARINE
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

High pressure will hold south of the waters through Wednesday, keeping mainly westerly and southwesterly flow in place. As the ridge starts to lift north Wednesday night and Thursday, winds will become more southerly. Winds and seas will generally remain less than headline criteria, although occasional thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds each day.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

West and southwest flow will continue today and Monday, keeping deep moisture over the area with no concerns for low humidity. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop each day, with the highest rain chances over the interior.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 80 91 81 / 20 10 10 0 FMY 91 78 92 79 / 30 10 20 0 GIF 94 76 94 77 / 40 10 20 0 SRQ 91 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 0 BKV 93 78 92 78 / 20 20 20 10 SPG 92 81 91 81 / 20 10 10 0

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.