Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McGregor, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Upper-level ridging remains situated across Central Florida and stretches east into the Atlantic. Weak surface high pressure remains over Florida in response, with a predominantly SSE flow at the surface. This is a continuation of the conditions that have been in place for the last few days.

What is changing, however, is the overall moisture content. Drier air is advecting into the area, leading to considerable mid-level drying. Low-level moisture will remain, and there will still be times when moisture pools in the vicinity of boundaries that develop. As such, rain chances will be considerably lower, but not zero. It also supports lower-topped convection when storms do form.
Without a doubt, there will still be thunderstorms, but the expectation is for fewer overall.

The driest air is likely over the next couple days before the moisture content gradually increases later in the week. Thus, rain chances are creeping up later in the week. Overall, though, this pattern is quite locked in with little change.

As such, expect pretty typical summertime to conditions to continue.
With lower rain chances, there will be limited relief in the evenings favoring lingering heat later into the evening. Overall, though, the setup is pretty standard for this time of year.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 817 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Predominately VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. However, thunderstorms with LCL MVFR CIGs /VSBYs may impact PGD/FMY/RSW/SRQ/LAL over the next couple of hours...with skies becoming mostly clear around midnight at all terminals.

Tomorrow, conditions are expected to remain similar to those of recent days, with scattered showers and storms still expected, although areal coverage will less due to dry air aloft moving over the region.



MARINE
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Coastal showers and thunderstorms will continue, but likely on a more limited basis over the next couple days as drier air moves across the region. An ESE wind generally less than 15 knots will be dominant, turning onshore along the coast in the afternoon.
However, expect higher winds and seas near and around storms.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Drier air is filtering in to lower overall thunderstorm coverage for the first half of the week. However, low-level moisture will remain sufficient to keep RH values well above critical thresholds. As such, there are no significant fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 93 79 94 / 40 40 40 50 FMY 75 94 75 95 / 50 40 30 60 GIF 76 95 77 95 / 50 40 20 50 SRQ 76 92 77 92 / 40 40 40 50 BKV 72 95 72 95 / 30 30 30 50 SPG 79 90 79 91 / 30 40 40 50

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.