Monday, November30, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
McGregor, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:35PM Monday November 30, 2020 12:39 PM EST (17:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 7:06AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 1029 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.small craft exercise caution...
This afternoon..Northwest winds around 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms late in the morning, then a slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the late evening and early morning.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming northeast around 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..East winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1029 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
Synopsis..A cold front moving across the waters today will produce showers and Thunderstorms over the southern waters through the morning with periodic light showers over the remaining waters possible through Tuesday. Breezy post-frontal northwest winds will result small craft advisory conditions through at least Tuesday before drying out. Easterly flow returns Wednesday into Thursday as surface high pressure builds to our north. Winds will remain elevated through the rest of the work week but should remain below advisory criteria.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McGregor, FL
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location: 26.56, -81.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 301355 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 855 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

UPDATE. Minor updates made to existing forecast package for latest radar/satellite trends and observations. Cold front continues to push across eastern Gulf/northern peninsula with pre-frontal line of showers/storms quickly moving eastward over central/southern locations. A few embedded stronger storms remain possible given instability and shear . particularly across southern locations where boundary-layer instability will be greatest . but for the most part expect mostly a relatively brief period of moderate to heavy rain with some gusty winds possible as the line passes through the remainder of the forecast area this morning into early afternoon. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 60s/lower 70s through the morning before falling this afternoon across northern/central areas where the line of showers/storms has already passed, and only expect slight warming into the mid 70s for southern locations before the line passes through that area by early afternoon and temperatures begin to fall. Breezy conditions will be likely across most of the area as the cold front pushes across the state today with cool/dry northwest winds in its wake beginning the pronounced cool down expected through mid-week.

Prev Discussion. /issued 657 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020/

AVIATION . Broken line of showers/storms moves across terminals with mostly MVFR/IFR conditions possible through mid/late morning at northern terminals . spreading to southern terminals late morning/early afternoon . before clearing the region with VFR returning by late afternoon/early evening across all terminals. Lingering VCSH possible with cold air advection into region, otherwise expect gusty southwest winds shifting out of the northwest following FROPA with gusts up to 25-30 knots this afternoon before diminishing this evening to around 10-15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots for northern terminals and around 10 knots for southern terminals.

Prev Discussion . /issued 228 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020/

.THREAT OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE MORNING . .MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK .

DISCUSSION . A substantial change in the weather pattern will be taking place by the start of the period . A closed surface low over the Central Appalachians will drag the well advertised cold front across our area through the day today. Out ahead of the front, however, we will have to deal with a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions remain favorable for some of these storms to produce strong/damaging wind gusts. A low-end tornado and/or waterspout threat will also be possible across the Nature Coast as the cells move through. Timing for the severe threat remains unchanged from previous thinking - around 4am for Levy county, sunrise or shortly after for the Bay area, 10am for Sarasota, and around noon for SWFL. Of course, keep in mind these times can fluctuate some as internal mechanisms can speed up or slow down convective lines and this is almost impossible to forecast But it gives you an idea.

The surface front itself will lag behind the line a few hours. But once it moves through, a sudden shift to breezy west/northwest winds will occur. It's likely to not completely dry out as CAA over the waters along with broad cyclonic vorticity advection will promote shallow topped showers through the day - especially over the waters and near the coastline. CAM guidance appears to be in agreement with this, which makes sense . Temperatures will be slow to rise, or perhaps even halt completely as a tightening pressure gradient drives colder and drier air into the region. This increase in winds will also create hazardous boating and beach conditions - please find the details of these in their respective products.

Tonight into tomorrow morning (Tuesday), expect noticeably colder air. Temps will fall well into the mid-upper 30s across the Nature Coast, low to mid 40s across the I-4 corridor, and low 50s in SWFL. North to northwest winds around 10 mph will make it feel 3-5 degrees colder. Our coldest high temperatures in quite sometime will occur on Tuesday, ranging from mid 50s to mid 60s. Impressively low dewpoints in the 20s-30s will keep it dry and brisk. A nice change for a Floridian, personally.

This cold airmass will continue to advect into the area, driving temps well down into the low 30s to low 40s by Wednesday morning. This will be the coldest weather we've seen since last winter. A brief freeze will be likely for parts of the Nature Coast and a watch may be necessary in subsequent forecast cycles. It's worthy to note that most MOS guidance favors a colder situation (i.e. 20s and 30s). This would be much more impactful for agricultural interests, of course. Have opted to take the model blend and lower it 2 degrees to account for this colder scenario, basically meeting MOS consensus half way . As a result, upper 20s appear possible across northern Levy with freezing temps extending as far south as Hernando county.

After a cold Wednesday, a gradual warming trend will begin as surface high pressure settles in to our north and flow also begins to shift back out of the east. Fortunately, we are not expecting any 80s so it will remain pleasant. Over the weekend, another cold front is expected to move through with best rain chances on Friday. Models have continued to trend a little warmer and drier compared to 24 hours ago, however. With that said, there is still much uncertainty regarding temperatures as 1 standard deviation for both low and high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday are 3-5 degrees . We'll get past this first front first and then hopefully pinpoint the next one a little better.

MARINE . A cold front will move through the region this morning into early afternoon. Ahead of this front, strong showers and thunderstorms will quickly progress across the waters. Behind the front, breezy northwest winds will result small craft advisory conditions through at least Tuesday before drying out. Periodic light showers over the waters will remain possible through Tuesday. By Wednesday, easterly flow returns as surface high pressure builds to our north. Winds will remain elevated through the rest of the work week but should remain below advisory criteria.

FIRE WEATHER . Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region this morning through early afternoon. A cold front will follow shortly after, resulting in a wind shift out of the northwest. Much colder and drier air will filter into the region. While periods of critical RH is likely both Tuesday and Wednesday, low ERC values and winds below 15 mph will preclude any warnings at this time.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 72 48 60 39 / 100 20 0 0 FMY 77 52 64 40 / 80 20 0 0 GIF 73 43 59 36 / 90 0 0 0 SRQ 74 51 62 39 / 90 20 0 0 BKV 70 40 57 31 / 90 20 0 0 SPG 72 50 59 45 / 100 20 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Pinellas.

High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.

High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Tuesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota.

High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for Pinellas.

Gulf waters . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.



UPDATE . Hurt UPPER AIR . LaMarre DECISION SUPPORT . Carlisle/McMichael


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 7 mi51 min WNW 11 G 17 72°F 77°F1013.4 hPa
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 11 mi105 min SSW 15 G 19 79°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 30 mi51 min SW 11 G 13 79°F 76°F1013.9 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 37 mi114 min W 11 79°F 1015 hPa75°F
VENF1 - Venice, FL 45 mi99 min NNW 17 G 20 71°F 75°F1013.5 hPa (+1.6)71°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL3 mi46 minNW 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F71°F91%1012.9 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL9 mi46 minWNW 810.00 miLight Rain72°F69°F91%1012.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMY

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW8S7SW4SW7S3S3S3S3S4S4S3S3S4S5S5CalmS4S5SW10SW9
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1 day agoCalmW7SW6SW7W8NW6NW6NW5NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3CalmS6
2 days agoE5E6E4E6N5N4NE3E3E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--S3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Coral Bridge, Florida
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Cape Coral Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:35 AM EST     0.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:16 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:40 PM EST     0.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:57 PM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.9110.90.80.60.40.20.1-0.1-0.1-0.100.20.40.50.60.60.60.60.60.50.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 04:42 AM EST     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:00 AM EST     1.23 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:52 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:53 PM EST     -0.10 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:04 PM EST     1.04 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.5-1-1.3-1.4-1.5-1.3-0.8-0.10.61.11.21.10.90.60.40.2-0-0.10.10.40.810.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.