Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seminole Manor, FL

FXUS62 KMFL 231752 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 152 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Models and sfc analyses begin the forecast period with low-lvl moisture trapped between two frontal boundaries, one over the Florida Keys and another over the northern portions of the peninsula. At the mid and upper lvls, a large trough/low complex is moving into the Atlantic seaboard, with most ensemble families keeping the influence of the trough across the region in place today. Relatively favorable conditions for active weather will result in another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
A departing, weak upper level jet, 500mb temps around -10C, a pocket of cooler/drier air aloft, and increasing PWATs to around 2 inches should provide enough dynamic support for another bout of strong to severe thunderstorms. Latest CAMs/mid-range solutions suggest even cooler 500mb temps, down to -12C, along with a dominant 25-30kt westerly flow, which may combine with the onset of sea breezes to become focal points for deeper convection.

The Storm Prediction Center is keeping a marginal risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) for most of the eastern half of SoFlo, including the Atlantic metro areas this afternoon and evening. The window for the most significant weather hazards will be between 1pm and 8pm, but showers and a few thunderstorms could still develop outside of this timeframe. Main hazards will again include large hail, frequent to excessive cloud-to-ground lightning, and damaging wind gusts.

Latest HUR/LPMM continue to show potential for localized flooding over the Atlantic metro areas, especially with slow-moving heavy downpours and/or training of cells. Overall, highest QPF estimates remain around 2 inches, but isolated amounts of up to 6 inches are still possible. POPs/Wx coverage remains in the 50-70 percent range this afternoon/early evening with highest chances over the eastern and interior areas of SoFlo.

By Saturday, ensembles show the frontal boundary to the south dissipating, while the front to the north become stationary.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned trough/low complex migrates further into the Atlantic, dragging the upper level dynamic support further away from the area. However, enough lingering moisture will remain in place for at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/early evening. Weakening pressure gradients will result in light sfc winds, which will allow for sea breezes to be the main driving mechanism for deeper convection.

The increasing shower and storm activity may help in keeping slightly cooler afternoon highs during the short term, although still expected to hit the upper 80s to low 90s, warmest over interior areas. Can't rule out some mid 90s over interior locations each afternoon.
Show more